Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07CONAKRY960
2007-08-22 15:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Conakry
Cable title:  

GUINEA: DANGEROUS GAMES, TREACHEROUS GROUND

Tags:  PGOV ELAB PREL ASEC GV 
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VZCZCXRO7291
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0960/01 2341541
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 221541Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1552
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000960 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: GUINEA: DANGEROUS GAMES, TREACHEROUS GROUND

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JULIE WINN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000960

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: GUINEA: DANGEROUS GAMES, TREACHEROUS GROUND

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JULIE WINN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Union leadership and civil society are
providing muted support to Prime Minister Kouyate, even in
the face of its slow progress, as their mutual enemies in
President Conte's circle pursue what some call a concerted
plan to undermine the consensus government at every turn.
While they have so far limited their response to rhetoric,
union reps told us that they are working on a plan of action
to ramp up the pressure on all parties to respect the
agreements struck last January-February and to respect the
people's demand for real change. End Summary.

GUINEA'S CLIMATE UNSETTLED AS FACTIONS CONTEND
-------------- -


2. (U) Guinea's union confederation last week published
"Info 46," the latest in a series of position statements and
tracts dating back to 2006. The unions provided muted
support for the Kouyate government, excusing its lack of
progress, and recognizing some successes, notably the
partners' forum in Paris July 24-25.


3. (U) In contrast, the unions denounced in pointed terms
the "enemies of change and thus progress in Guinea,8 citing
the acts and obstacles posed by &former dignitaries and
their acolytes,8 as well as President Conte confidant
Mamadou Sylla. The document argued that such people were
blocking all progress, including by encouraging Conte not to
sign a series of pending decrees, in order to prove to the
population that only they, the old school, could govern. Not
so, the union tract stressed, since the people will not be
fooled. They know who the authors of their distress really
are, and efforts to hold back inevitable change will not go
unpunished.


4. (C) The publication of Info 46 came against a backdrop of
increasing frustration on the part of the government, and a
chorus of warnings and worried prognostications from our
contacts and in the written and internet press. Rumors
continue of a breakdown in communication between Prime
Minister Kouyate and President Conte. Observers note the

inability of many Ministers to overcome entrenched PUP (Party
for Unity and Progress) bureaucracies in their offices, who
block or undermine many initiatives. Decrees replacing the
layers of civil servants just below the ministerial level
have been hung up in the President's office all summer.
(Note: Our Treasury Advisor tells us that Ministries are not
showing up at the government budget committee's now ongoing
hearings, that they seem incapable of preparing and
presenting a coherent budget, and that her contacts attribute
much of this to bureaucratic sabotage.)


5. (SBU) On August 18, national television broadcast a PUP
rally at the Palais du Peuple attended by large numbers of
former Ministers, regional officials, and Conte crony and
party financier Mamadou Sylla (Note: no current
cabinet-level officials were observed participating). This
anti-change gathering was marked by a gloating sense of
resurgence on the part of party stalwarts and sidelined
functionaries -- "We're still here and we have power." The
crowd included a large number of celebrants and activists
carrying banners that said "Down with Change,8 although it
is widely believed that these participants were largely paid
to attend by Mamadou Sylla.


6. (C) In the meantime, worrisome developments continue in
the Guinean military, where some soldiers in the camps are
once again demanding back pay, this time for those service
members who were incarcerated immediately following the 1996
pay mutiny. They have reportedly set a deadline of September
8 for action on this front, but it is unclear what action is
expected to take place before this deadline. This is a
demand separate from demands under the so-called "Bulletin
Rouge" although press, internet and other Guineans confuse
the two.

UNIONS: CHANGE MUST CONTINUE, WHATEVER IT TAKES
-------------- --


7. (U) On August 21, Charge and Poloff called on USTG (Labor
Union of Guinean Workers) General Secretary Ibrahima Fofana
and CNTG (National Confederation of Guinean Workers) deputy
chief Yamoussa Toure. Also joining were the president of
the teachers, union, Mbemba Soumah, and USTG executive
committee member Taibou Diallo. Informing the union
leadership of her imminent departure from Guinea, Charge took
note of Info 46, expressing appreciation for its balance in
supporting the government in spite of difficulties in making
progress.


8. (C) Fofana and his cohorts were eager to talk. The

CONAKRY 00000960 002 OF 003


country is still in crisis, they stressed. The enemies of
change have a concerted plan to destabilize all who stand
against them. But, "unity is strength," and the unions and
civil society will come together in the next days around an
action plan, they said. They will not be divided by those
who would risk civil war to retain their privileges. Fofana
said the unions must continue to work together as a united
bloc; division within their ranks would ultimately result in
failure to effect change. Backing the unions and the Kouyate
administration are also the Patronat (headed by Yousouff
Diallo),civil society, the majority of the population, and
possibly some military elements, they pointed out.


9. (C) Fofana said that the military had recently approached
the unions in order to explore possible opportunities for
political collaboration, but more to request union assistance
in addressing the back pay issues. Fofana said that union
leaders will meet to discuss collaborative opportunities with
the military, although he expects to proceed cautiously. He
said the unions will not support any military-led political
transition and want to make sure they do not even present a
situation that could be interpreted as such. On the other
hand, provided the military agrees not to shoot civilians,
perhaps some agreement around common interests, including
pressing for Conte's removal, might be possible. He stressed
that those military representatives who had reached out to
the unions said they did not/not intend to stage a coup
d'etat but wanted a civilian lead. In response to Charge's
question, Fofana said that the unions had made clear they did
not support the military's getting back pay now as a matter
of priority, given all the needs of the country at large. He
concurred with Charge's comment that no one group or person
should be pressing narrow self-interests at this time.


10. (C) Taibou Diallo is union liaison to the Civil-Military
Committee established in the wake of a US-funded and USAID
and Department of Defense sponsored civil-military seminar in
June 2006. The Committee has played a useful liaison role
over the last year, and with some continued monetary support
from USAID, has been conducting outreach in both sectors of
society. Taibou commented on observations made during recent
visits to various military bases. She said that the army is
essentially split into ideologically divided groups,
including more than one group of Red Berets, the
Chinese-trained Rangers, the Presidential Guard and the foot
soldiers clamoring for pay. While she did not comment on
what agenda each of these groups might be pushing, she said
that it is clear some are pro-Conte and some are not. Diallo
also said that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and
the Minister of Defense are reportedly not talking to each
other. However, her group plans to meet with them soon in
order to ascertain what they have to say about the current
political situation.


11. (C) Fofana added that the population will not be fooled
by the PUP's claims of renewed power. (Comment: In fact,
some believe the current government was pleased to let the
broadcast on national television of PUP,s rally go forward
since the population will likely be angered by the PUP,s
presumption). The unions, intent, along with their natural
allies in civil society, is to see that President Conte meets
his commitments with regard to the Agreements that led to the
consensus government. Whether he will or not was a topic of
disagreement, with Taibou Diallo informing us that President
Conte may well sign some decrees this weekend, which include
appointments of civil service employees below the Ministerial
level submitted by Prime Minister Kouyate. If the decrees
are not signed, pressure will mount -- and Kouyate's own
future will be even shakier.


12. (C) Union representatives insisted that they want
peaceful change. When one said that meant Conte must go,
Charge asked what that meant for succession of power,
Yamoussa pointed to the Constitution, but the others were
less diplomatic, observing that they are in an extraordinary
period and that the Constitution might not apply, given that
the National Assembly is basically null and void. (Comment:
Charge emphasized that the constitutional mechanism was the
only legal way forward they had, but they appeared
unconvinced by that argument.)


13. (C) COMMENT. This is very much a period of political
hardball in Guinea, as those who would inevitably lose power
and wealth under a democratic and accountable government
exercise every trick possible, dirty and otherwise, to
prevent positive change. The unions and civil society, who
do not in fact want to be too closely aligned with the
Kouyate government, are forced nonetheless to defend it,
flaws and all, against their mutual enemies. They want to
keep the pressure on both Conte and Kouyate to actually do
the work of making life better for Guineans, but they also
are all too aware that in another series of strikes or

CONAKRY 00000960 003 OF 003


protests, the situation could deteriorate beyond their
control. The military's own internal fractures and the
inadequacies of the police further cloud the picture. As to
the villains of the piece, the old school hardliners and
their hangers-on, it is hard to see what they hope to gain
other than a last chance to top off a few individuals' bank
accounts. Most who appeared in the PUP's party at the Palais
du People stand to gain little and to lose all they have left
when, as he will sooner or later, President Conte disappears.
KAEUPER