ELECTIONS WATCH - GUINEAN GOVERNMENT MEETS WITH POLITICAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000891

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12598: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS WATCH - GUINEAN GOVERNMENT MEETS WITH POLITICAL
PARTIES

REFTEL: CONAKRY 00593


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The Government of Guinea (GoG) still officially
plans to hold its overdue legislative elections in December.
However, as weeks continue to go by with little progress towards an
Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI),Guineans are
becoming increasingly frustrated by the Government's pace. Leaders
from civil society, political parties, and the unions generally
agree that the December timeline is unrealistic and have expressed
hope that the elections will take place early in the first quarter
of 2008. Most agree that free and fair elections are critical to
the country's stability and are working independently to ensure
transparence. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate met with the heads of
political parties July 30 to discuss preparations for the elections.
Party leaders reported that the Prime Minister was responsive and
committed to getting the CENI in place so that election planning can
move forward. Kouyate agreed to meet with party leaders bi-monthly
and directed the Minister of Interior to meet with them at least
monthly.


3. (SBU) In their first meeting with the Ministry of Interior
August 2, party leaders were unable to finalize the list of CENI
delegates due to disagreements over the distribution of CENI seats.
According to law, the majority party (Party of Unity and Progress -
PUP) and its allies, represented by La Mouvance Presidentielle (an
association of 13 minor political parties) get ten CENI seats. The
opposition parties also get ten CENI seats. In addition, civil
society gets three seats and GoG administration gets two seats.


4. (SBU) Earlier this year, La Mouvance Presidentielle switched
allegiance in response to the PUP's naming of controversial Guinean
millionaire, El Hadj Mamadou Sylla, as honorary President of the PUP
(reftel). La Mouvance's desertion of the PUP spurred opposition
party members to argue that the PUP no longer had the backing to
justify ten CENI seats. During the August 2 meeting, La Mouvance
reportedly rejoined with the PUP, which could help alleviate
pressure to redistribute the CENI seats. Despite the re-maneuvering
however, the meeting ended without agreement on CENI distribution.
In a July 31 meeting, PUP leadership told the Charge that they have
already nominated their ten delegates and are waiting for the other
parties to name theirs.


5. (SBU) Despite delays in getting the CENI organized, party
leaders from both the majority and the opposition seem committed to
ensuring free and fair elections as soon as possible. A meeting
between the PUP, Charge and Pol/Econ Chief July 31 included
high-ranking party leaders Elhadj Sekou Konate, PUP General
Secretary and Elhadj Thierno Diallo, President of the PUP

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Parliamentary Group at the National Assembly, as well as several
members of the PUP's Executive Board. The PUP told the Charge that
transparent elections are critical to the overall stability of the
country and that they will do their best to ensure a peaceful
election process. They identified adequate security forces as an
important element of this process in order to provide adequate
protection to voters.


6. (SBU) The stated need for additional security forces echoes on
comments made by the President of the National Assembly, El Hadj
Aboubacar Sompare, in a July 24 meeting with the Charge, who said
that without security forces on the ground, the country could erupt
into civil war. Sompare cited ethnic divisions between the parties
and throughout the country as a possible flashpoint for violence
although he acknowledged that religion plays a tempering role by
advocating for peace. Sompare, a leader in the PUP, opined that the
legislative elections are unlikely to bring fundamental change.
Some opposition party representatives caution that additional
security forces could intimidate voters to vote in favor of the
ruling party.


7. (SBU) COMMENT. Scheduling the elections hinges on officially
establishing the CENI. While most contacts agree that December is
unrealistic, the GoG continues to hold to that timeline and is
likely waiting for the CENI to develop a realistic timeframe with a
definitive election schedule. However, as December approaches and
no new election dates are announced, the general population is
likely to become more agitated. People are committed to free and
fair elections and they seem willing to wait for them until early
next year if doing so will help ensure that the process will be
transparent. Establishing the CENI at the national level and then
effectively communicating the timeline and preparations to the
general population would do much to alleviate growing concerns, a
view we are pressing with all participants.


8. (SBU) In addition to the national CENI, electoral commissions
will also need to be established at the regional, prefecture, and
sub-prefecture levels. Recent visits to neighboring prefectures of
Fria and Forecariah and contacts with both prefects indicate their
familiarity with technical election requirements and concern about
corresponding lack of budget support at sub-prefectorial and

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communal levels. END COMMENT.

KAEUPER