NO SOLUTION YET FOR MILITARY CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000503

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV ASEC PINS MARR GV
SUBJECT: NO SOLUTION YET FOR MILITARY CRISIS

REF: A. CONAKRY 493


B. CONAKRY 501

Classified By: Political Officer Jessica Davis Ba. Reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Although Guinea's Prime Minister has led efforts to
resolve the crisis within the Guinean military (Ref A),the
government has yet to announce a satisfactory solution. The
National Council of Defense and Security has met several
times over the last few days, with senior military leaders
conferring with Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate and the
Minister of Finance, Economy and Planning, and Minister of
Interior and Security. While President Lansana Conte chairs
the Council, he has not been present during any of the
discussions. To calm the troops, the military is proposing
to promote all mid-ranked military personnel, a measure that
the Prime Minister and his cabinet maintains the country
cannot afford. There is no agreement on removing key senior
officers, as the soldiers have demanded. While the soldiers'
primary demands are focused on fundamental changes in
military leadership, to date the proposed solutions are based
on raising salaries. Military and civilian leaders remain
hopeful for a peaceful resolution. While the soldiers are
calm at present and have not set any public deadlines, they
are growing impatient. Without an adequate government
response, military personnel intend to re-engage in protest
activities, although we are unaware of any specific plans.
End Summary.

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Soldiers Calm, But Armories Are Empty
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2. (C) The military crisis that has seized the attention of
Guinea's senior leaders (Ref A) remains unresolved. Since
May 4, we have received no reports of protests on military
bases or in other locations by members of Guinea's armed
forces. Although there was a flare up among local community
guards in Conakry (Ref B),they too remain calm. In
N'Zerekore on May 6-7, the population sought retribution
against soldiers who looted stores. Civilians went
door-to-door, without warrants and unaccompanied by security
or justice personnel, searching soldiers' homes for stolen
goods. In some cases, the homes were ransacked in the
process. Some stolen goods were recovered and returned to
the store's owners. There have been no recent reports of
injuries. At present, the situation remains calm but tenuous
on military bases and barracks nationwide.


3. (C) Military sources confirmed to us that, during the May
2-3 protests, military personnel looted the arms stores on
most military bases. A colonel told us that Guinea's
armories are now empty and that military officials do not
have information on the location of the weaponry and
ammunition. We were told that the fact of the "missing" arms
makes any negotiations of the crisis more difficult -- in
particular the restructuring of the armed forces that the
soldiers are demanding. No specific person has emerged to
champion the soldier's plight, although a Lieutenant Abdoul
Gadiri Diallo strongly voiced the personnel's concerns during
their May 4 meeting with the Prime Minister. Since May 4,
there has been no large meeting between the Prime Minister,
his cabinet and the military rank-and-file.

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Negotiations Are Not Yet Bearing Fruit
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4. (C) The majority of the discussions on this
military-military issue are taking place within the
restrained membership of the National Council of Defense and
Security. While this Council is nominally chaired by
President Conte, he has not been present at any of the many
meetings over the last few days. While senior military
officers typically lead the meetings, they have been doing so
with Prime Minister Kouyate, Minister of Economy, Finance,
and Planning Ousmane Dore, and Minister of Interior and
Security Mohamed Bo Keita actively involved. We understand
that in order to bring immediate calm, the military has
proposed promoting the mid-rank military personnel who did
not receive any of the benefits that the more junior and more
senior personnel enjoyed with the February promotions that
Conte instituted to calm discontent bubbling up within the
military at that time.


5. (C) The proposed promotions would increase salaries for

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these soldiers from a base of 80,000 GNF (approximately 26
USD) to 320,000 GNF (approximately 106 USD). While the
promotions would be based on grade, the average mid-ranked
soldier would gain between 150,000 GNF (approximately 46 USD)
to 300,000 GNF (approximately 95 USD) per month. The Prime
Minister and the Minister of Finance reportedly are rejecting
the idea outright because of its implication for a national
budget that already has a financing gap of at least 30
million USD. We understand the Prime Minister also has said
that these salary increases are untenable and would set the
stage for a series of salary demands that the government is
in no position to meet


6. (C) Sources close to Prime Minister Kouyate told us that
if it were up to him, he would begin with the dismissal of
the senior military leaders and address pay issues
secondarily. However, the senior military representatives
(who all would be at risk of losing their jobs),are
dismissing this approach because the current uncertainty
would make any additional changes "too delicate." Another
point that the military said would be absolutely
non-negotiable is the re-instatement of salaries and benefits
for officers involved in the 1996 mutiny. Our interlocutors
said that Conte would never, ever accept this demand being
made by the soldiers.

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General Remains Hopeful for a Resolution
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7. (C) The morning of May 9, General Kaba "43" Camara, Army
Chief of Staff, dropped by the embassy unannounced to discuss
an unrelated matter. (General Camara is seeking DOD
humanitarian assistance to construct a health dispensary near
his village in Beyla in the Forest Region.) The Ambassador
and the DATT took advantage of General Camara's visit to
probe about the ongoing crisis within the military. General
Camara responded cautiously, noting that there was a "lack of
understanding" between the military command and subordinate
military personnel. The Ambassador stated that he hoped this
military matter could be resolved quickly so that it would
not destabilize Guinea just as it starts on a new course
toward reform. Camara clamed to be hopeful that a resolution
could be found, but he gave us no reason to believe his hopes
were well-founded.

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Comment
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8. (C) Our interlocutors both in and outside of the
military share General Camara's optimism and respond to our
inquires with the refrain that this military issue must be
resolved quickly. However, it appears there is no immediate
solution in sight. There is no money in Guinea's coffers to
appease the soldiers. Even if the government were to find a
short-term fix, the national budget could not support any
increased military spending on salaries. Although the
soldiers would welcome more money, their core protest was
against the endemic corruption at top levels of the military.
The National Council of Defense and Security does not appear
to be seriously considering the soldier's demand to remove
key officers (all of whom are part of the Council). Neither
Guinea's civilian leaders nor senior military officers have a
solution for the crisis. While they have remained quiet, the
military rank-and-file will not accept a deadlock and are
expecting some immediate concrete response.
MCDONALD