WAITING GAME PARALYZES KEY INSTITUTIONS BUT MAY BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000362

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN NATIONS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2017
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINS GV
SUBJECT: WAITING GAME PARALYZES KEY INSTITUTIONS BUT MAY BE
APPROACHING AN END

REF: A. CONAKRY 342


B. CONAKRY 333

Classified By: Political Officer Jessica Davis Ba. Reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. As all of Guinea waits for the announcement
of a new cabinet, the justice system, educational
institutions, Guinea's union coalition and government offices
are paralyzed. That announcement is rumored to be as
imminent as the evening of March 28, as some sources now
contend that President Conte has signed a government list.
If true, it will not come a moment too soon. After more than
four weeks as Prime Minister (Ref A),Lansana Kouyate's
popular credibility has begun to fray, as fingers are pointed
at President Conte as an insuperable obstacle. Many were
disappointed as ECOWAS envoy and former President Babangida
came and left without a resolution. Frustrations are
beginning to bubble up in the interior, as evidenced by
protests by university students in Labe on March 26. With
key union leaders in Geneva at international conferences,
however, Guinea's trade unions have not mobilized to demand
immediate appointments. If the announcement comes on March
28, Guinea will move quickly to assess whether the new
government meets popular demands. If no announcement is
forthcoming, the ship of state will continue to drift, and
tensions will only rise. End Summary.


2. (C) Information received March 28 seems to confirm that
President Conte has signed a decree naming a new "government
of consensus" and that the decree will be published on the
evening news. If true, Guineans will be united in pouring
over the new roster to determine whether it meets their
demands for a break with the past and their hopes for a
better future. If not, meetings held with contacts over the
last few days paint a picture of gloom and concern.

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Babangida Comes and Goes with No Resolution
--------------


3. (SBU) While Guineans remain hopeful, patience appears to
be nearing its end. On March 22, ECOWAS envoy and former
Nigerian President Ibrahim Babangida arrived in Conakry with
ECOWAS Commission President Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas. The
ECOWAS delegation (initially expected to come a week earlier
but put off due to the Wade visit) was welcomed with open
arms by union, civil society, and religious leaders who
believed that their presence would herald the announcement of
a new government. As in his previous visit in February,
Babangida called the non-governmental leaders into
consultative meetings where they aired concerns and hopes
that Conte would uphold his promise for a consensus
government. Our sources told us that the meetings were
productive and Babangida listened attentively to their
perspectives.


4. (SBU) On March 23, the ECOWAS delegation met formally
with Prime Minister Kouyate and President Conte. We
understand that in the meeting with Conte, only the Prime
Minister, Babangida, and Chambas were present. An ECOWAS
ambassador close to Chambas told the Ambassador that Conte
promised to "follow the ECOWAS recommendations." Babangida
was presented with honorary Guinean citizenship and a Guinean
passport, but left without a concrete resolution. Taibou
Diallo, a member of the union coalition Executive Committee,
told Poloff that union leaders were disappointed after
Babangida said, "There have been countless missions to Cote
d'Ivoire and the situation is not yet solved." The union
leadership admitted they were losing faith in Babangida as
the "moral guarantor" of Conte's promises, as the former
Nigerian president left without any resultant action or even
a return date.

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Bar Association Extends Strike to Protest Impunity
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) On February 12, during the general strike, members
of Guinea's Bar Association suspended their participation in
court proceedings to protest the corruption and impunity in
the judicial system. Representing Guinea's 200 attorneys who
do not work as government prosecutors or judges, the Bar
Association is one of Guinea's most influential professional
organizations. Its current president, Boubakar Sow, told
poloff on March 27 that the Bar Association initially
launched its strike to lend support to the popular labor
movement. The Bar Association made political demands from

CONAKRY 00000362 002 OF 003


the beginning, accusing the Ministry of Justice, state
prosecutors, and judges of deforming Guinea's judicial system
and turning it into one where justice is bought and sold.
Sow said that every single decision and case is impacted by
corruption, ignorance of the law, and total disregard for the
judicial process. He added that although it is illegal, the
courts are still operating during the Bar Association strike,
convicting citizens without the legal representation they are
guaranteed under law. Sow said that while this is
unfortunate, the sacrifice is necessary to draw attention to
the compounded crisis within the legal system.


6. (SBU) After recent episodes of civil unrest, the
government of Guinea promised to bring perpetrators of
killings, violence, looting and property damage to justice.
Sow said the investigations are farcical. While the Ministry
of Justice has opened cases and investigations around the
country for the June 2006 and January and February 2007
killings, it has yet to match a single individual to the
"suspect x" in each of the cases. By contrast, Sow confirms
that hundreds of citizens have been arrested for alleged
property crimes. While some remain in custody, many were
released after paying the appropriate bribe to the
appropriate official. Sow maintains the national inquiry
opened to investigate crimes during the strike and state of
siege has done nothing to deliver justice and that the
union's participation in the inquiry oversight commission
caused "cold feelings" between the union coalition and the
Bar Association. Sow told us that after attorneys received
no response from the government to their demands on March 20,
the association members, led by the young attorneys, voted
overwhelmingly to continue their strike indefinitely.


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Restless Students Protest in Labe
--------------


7. (SBU) Frustration with the lack of movement has bubbled
up into at least one of Guinea's schools. On March 26,
student representatives from the University of Labe
approached the university's director demanding better quality
professors, better living conditions in the dormitories, and
that university staffing to be routed through the Ministry of
Labor, rather than handled by the director himself. Like
university students in all regions of Guinea, the
institution's approximately 3000 students began the academic
year late ) in November rather than October. Christmas
break and the strikes in January and February left classes
empty until very recently. As Labe's students began their
studies, they found many of the professors to be
unknowledgable and incapable of instructing them. The
majority of the teachers are part-time, temporary lecturers
hired by the director. The director allegedly collects 10
percent of the professors' salaries in exchange for giving
them jobs. Some lecturers reportedly lack even a high school
education, but were appointed professors because they are
friends and distant relatives of the director. The students
gave no deadline by which their demands must be met but
physically harassed the director and threatened him with
violence if conditions do not improve. At present, the
situation is calm, and there are no immediate signs that
students are organizing protests at any other institutions.

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Unions Have Not Mobilized to Demand a Deadline
-------------- -


8. (C) In the continued waiting game, Guinea's key unions
leaders, including CNTG General Secretary Rabiatou Serah
Diallo and USTG General Secretary Ibrahim Fofana departed
Guinea for an international labor conference in Geneva. They
departed Conakry on March 24 and are scheduled to return on
March 31. Union contacts told us the executive committee
remains in contact with one another, although it has held no
recent meetings. They said that while they have set no
imminent deadlines for a new government, their membership is
urging them to do so. Taibou Diallo asserted that the change
process is far from over; with or without Rabiatou Diallo or
Fofana present, the unions remain ready to mobilize. At the
same time, Taibou conceded that any organized action would
take some time to announce and carry out. She reminded
Poloff that after the February 9 announcement of Eugene
Camara, it was not the unions that made the call that led to
some of the most violent protests that rocked Guinea.

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Government Offices Continue to Hemorrhage Resources

CONAKRY 00000362 003 OF 003


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9. (C) As reported previously (Ref B),government offices
have become the playground of ministers and their staff who
are on their way out the door, and who are making a mad grab
to take with them everything they can steal. Kouyate's
efforts to guard state resources have made it more difficult
for lower-level ministers and government officials to take
money from the Central Bank. However, those closest to Conte
still have unfettered access to money. Baidy Aribot,
director of the Central Bank's currency exchange division,
told Econoff that Moussa Solano, Minister of Territorial
Administration and Decentralization, continues to collect
money for himself and for Conte, at Conte's behest.
Meanwhile, most ministries are only marginally functioning.
Secretary General Bailo Diallo of the Ministry of Territorial

SIPDIS
Administration and Decentralization told Poloff that his
ministry is delivering "minimum service," but that all are
just waiting for the announcement of the new cabinet of
ministers. When asked if he had any idea what it might come,
Diallo told us, "I am far, far away from any decisions that
are being made now ) your guess may be better than mine."
Over the last week, this sentiment has been echoed by many of
our key contacts, insiders across ministries who are now
purposefully distancing themselves from present activities.
Those who are usually full of information are hesitant to
speak, and all contend they are playing no role in the
formation of a new government.

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Comment
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10. (C) Our interlocutors have continued to repeat the
refrain that they want change, but many appear lost as to
next steps should President Conte not name a new government
very soon. They have set no formal deadlines, and there are
no protests being planned by either the unions or civil
society. There is growing recognition that "Conte is the
problem" and the cause of delays in naming the new
government, though Prime Minister Kouyate insists that Conte
is not constraining him. In a sign that the much-vaunted
patience and endurance of Guineans is a thing of the past,
many Guineans are already openly questioning if Kouyate is
the right man for the job. With Kouyate planning to travel
to Dakar for Wade's inauguration, he must quickly obtain
Conte's approval of a new cabinet or leave the country
chagrined as head of a non-existent government.
MCDONALD