PATIENCE DIMINISHING AS PRIME MINISTER HAS YET TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000333

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN NATIONS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINS GV
SUBJECT: PATIENCE DIMINISHING AS PRIME MINISTER HAS YET TO
FORM NEW GOVERNMENT

REF: A. CONAKRY 313


B. CONAKRY 299

Classified By: Political Officer Jessica Davis Ba. Reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Guinea's union leaders told us March 19
that if a new government is not named before the end of this
week, they fear public protest. Although they have not set a
deadline themselves, the union coalition says the people are
losing patience with the time it is taking for Prime Minister
Lansana Kouyate to name his cabinet. The obstacle is
President Conte and his coterie, who are resisting the
appointment of an entirely new slate of ministers, with
several candidates from the Guinean diaspora. While Guineans
are encouraged by the decree restructuring the cabinet (Ref
A),the situation remains tenuous without a consensus list.
Unions and others are concerned about the hemorrhaging of
funds from public coffers (Ref B). As time continues to drag
on, the risk of public discontent grows. If there is another
round of protests, violence, and a spiral into a deeper
crisis, a solution will be more difficult to achieve, since
the population will likely revert to its January 22 demand
for change at the top. End Summary.

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Union Leaders Firm on Stance, Cautious on Future
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2. (C) Since his appointment as Prime Minister on February
27, Lansana Kouyate has met several times with union leaders
to discuss a range of issues. CNTG General Secretary
Rabiatou Serah Diallo and USTG General Secretary Ibrahima
Fofana expressed confidence in the new Prime Minister and say
they are doing all they can to support his efforts. Fofana
declared that it is too early to judge Kouyate on his
actions. He continued, "I just hope that the Prime Minister
is allowed to do his work -- if not, it will be bad, very bad
for all of us." The union leaders are coordinating efforts
to encourage members and the larger population to remain
patient while the Prime Minister chooses his cabinet. So
far, they have been successful in staving off calls for
immediate action from their base, particularly in the
interior. Union leaders upcountry want to establish a firm
deadline for the cabinet appointments, with severe
consequences if it is not met.


3. (C) Diallo said that Kouyate has acknowledged that he is
meeting resistance from Conte and his camp, who insist that
the cabinet include a few current ministers. (Note. Our
sources tell us the ministers that Conte wants to retain are
former Prime Minister Eugene Camara, Minister of Agriculture
Jean-Paul Sarr, and Minister of Transportation Ibrahima
Keira. Keira was spotted by one of our contacts at Prime
Minister Kouyate's residence on March 18, making the
obligatory "pilgrimage" that many others have recently made
hoping to win a seat in the new government. End Comment).
Diallo and Fofana agreed that the unions and the population
at large would not accept the appointment of a single
minister who has ever served in a ministerial capacity under
either Conte or Sekou Toure. They insisted that this
criteria is not negotiable.

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Have the Candidates, But Will Conte Sign?
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4. (C) Although they initially resisted getting involved in
the process to vet candidates, the union leaders admitted
that the Prime Minister insisted they offer names for the
cabinet. Kouyate reportedly said that the unions have led
the struggle this far and must continue to play a role both
in and outside of the government in order to foster
consensus. Diallo and Fofana bemoaned being inundated with
resumes and dossiers of hopefuls. The union coalition has
established a committee to evaluate the "applications",
summarize credentials by sector, and send forward the
strongest candidates. Without offering specific names,
Diallo confirmed there were several resumes of women who are
competent, but may have been overlooked. Fofana agreed that
there is no lack of talent from which Kouyate can choose, it
is more a question of whether Conte will agree to appoint the
Prime Minister's selections.


5. (C) Diallo and Fofana told Poloff that in their last
meeting with the Prime Minister, Kouyate said the unions
forgot to build a key component into the negotiated agreement
with the government -- what they will do if Conte refuses to

CONAKRY 00000333 002 OF 002


sign a decree naming a government of consensus. Kouyate
reportedly said that in this event, he would immediately
resign. But the Prime Minister promised to forewarn the
union leaders before taking this course. Diallo and Fofana
said that if this were to happen, Guinea would erupt. When
Poloff asked how likely an outcome this is, they replied,
"Anything can happen - especially since it all still depends
on Conte and he is sick."

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No Controls to Stem the Hemorrhaging of Resources
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6. (C) During this period of continued uncertainty, Guinea
remains in a sense of suspended animation. Activities at
most ministries are at a standstill. Our contacts in key
ministries such as Territorial Administration and
Decentralization, Economy and Finance, and Foreign Affairs
confirm that employees make an appearance a few times each
week, but produce nothing. Most just show up out of fear
that without the "face time", they might be the first on the
chopping block as the government is restructured. Others
come to work to divert resources from their associated
projects and activities. Diallo charged that while Kouyate
has tried to establish fiscal controls on cash, bonds are now
being written for gold to be removed from the Central Bank.


7. (C) The union leaders cited the "unquenchable thirst" of
the presidency for money. Fofana exclaimed, "I do not even
know what Conte could be doing with all the money he is
taking -- it certainly is not being spent to bolster Guinea's
economy." Diallo said the main offenders are in the Ministry
of Defense. Other key culprits are the Prime Ministry, prior
to the arrival of Lansana Kouyate, and the Ministries of
Security and Territorial Administration and Decentralization.
Diallo said that people are taking what they can now, but
hoped that all would eventually pay for their actions after
audits are conducted and the perpetrators identified.


8. (C) Even Guinea's hospitals have taken to shaking down
their patients, Diallo said (note: although this is not
entirely new, given the lack of resources most medical
facilities face). After hospital visits where international
donors present victims with funds to help offset personal
expenses, the doctors and hospital administrators lock the
doors of the facility to demand their part of the payments.
If the patients refuse to pay, their beds are given to others
and they are refused additional treatment. The union leaders
said that when they try to draw attention to these and other
transgressions, the government tries to turn the facts around
and blame the unions. At the same time, the union leaders
told Poloff that the population has unrealistic expectations
of them and that neither the unions nor a Prime Minister will
be able to fix all Guinea's wrongs in the near term.

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Comment
--------------


9. (C) The union leaders' sentiments are shared by the
majority of the population -- we will wait patiently for a
government of consensus, but the end result must not fall
short. The criteria for new blood is unconditional, and
public expectations are high. Immediately following the
appointment of Kouyate as Prime Minister/Head of Government,
Guinea was engulfed in a celebratory mood -- all the
sacrifices seemed to pay off with a people's victory. Over
the next two weeks, average citizens regarded the time it was
taking to appoint the government as a positive sign that the
Prime Minister was consulting widely and that he was putting
great thought and consideration into finding the best
candidates. Through the end of last week, most of our
interlocutors were optimistic. Now, however, there is a
shift in the climate. The union leaders, who are in close
touch with members throughout the country, expressed doubt
that they would be able to keep things calm if the situation
drags on past the end of this week. If Conte remains
intransigent or Kouyate backs down, citizens will undoubtedly
protest. The naming of a Prime Minister/Head of Government
was a negotiated solution, not the primary demand of the
street. Should this solution fall through, Guineans will
return to their January 22 position -- change at the top.

MCDONALD