NEW GUINEAN PRIME MINISTER MUST STRIKE THE RIGHT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 CONAKRY 000277

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/17
TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL GV
SUBJECT: NEW GUINEAN PRIME MINISTER MUST STRIKE THE RIGHT
BALANCE BETWEEN CONTINUITY AND CHANGE


Classified by Ambassador Jackson McDonald. Reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) On March 2, the Ambassador met for the first time
with newly appointed Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate. He
said the U.S. will be as supportive as possible, if the new
government is broad based and if it represents a distinct
break with the corruption and cronyism of the past. He
encouraged continuation of the political dialogue,
prosecution of persons responsible for killings and other
violent acts, and restoration of private radio stations.
He also probed on the delicate question of how Kouyate
plans to "manage" President Lansana Conte.


2. (C) Enthusiastic, energetic, but aware of the
challenges before him, Prime Minister Kouyate provided good
responses to all of the above points but shied away from
discussing in detail his relationship with Conte. He spoke
at length about his attachment to democratic values and,
unlike many members of the governing elite, seems to
realize that the voice of the people now counts in Guinea.


3. (C) Prime Minister Kouyate's first test will be the
formation of a new government. He must meet popular
demands for real change, while avoiding drawing fire from
the old guard, who will not concede power and privilege
without a fight. When choosing ministers, Kouyate must
find the right balance between continuity and change. If
there is not enough change, the people will take to the
streets again; if he attempts the wholesale removal of the
old guard, then they will work to undercut him. It remains
to be seen whether he can pass this critical test.
End summary.

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HEAD OF GOVERNMENT INSTALLED IN PRESIDENTIAL PALACE
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4. (C) On March 2, the Ambassador met for the first time
with recently appointed Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate.
The meeting took place at the Sekoutoureya Palace, the
modern, Chinese-built presidential palace that President
Lansana Conte seldom uses. In a symbolic gesture,
President Conte instructed his new prime minister/head of
government to set up office at Sekoutoureya Palace rather
than at the old, run-down prime ministry building.


5. (C) Unfortunately, Foreign Minister Mamady Conde (a
card-carrying member of the old guard) and two note takers
attended the first three-quarters of the meeting, a fact
which at times inhibited discussion. The Ambassador was,
however, able to raise some sensitive matters in a brief
one-on-one discussion at the end of the meeting.

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U.S. WILL SUPPORT REAL CHANGE
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6. (C) After congratulating Prime Minister Kouyate on his
appointment, the Ambassador said that the U.S. will be as
supportive as possible, if the new government is broad
based and if it represents a distinct break with the
corruption, cronyism, and ineffective governance of the
past. He emphasized that the U.S. cannot support the
continuation of bad governance. The Guinean people have
demanded change, and they deserve it. He concluded that we
would judge the new government by its actions, not just its
words.


7. (C) Prime Minister Kouyate responded, "I will be the
first to tell you not to support us if we don't change our
ways." He likened Guinea's arrested development to a hot
air balloon tethered to the ground by ropes and weighted
down by ballast. He said it was necessary to cut the ropes
of bad governance and cast off the ballast of decades of
ineffective government in order to allow the balloon to
rise.

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DIALOGUE CONTINUES PRIOR TO FORMATION OF NEW GOVERNMENT
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8. (C) The Ambassador noted that Kouyate had been named
Prime Minister as the result of political dialogue; he
encouraged him to continue this process of political
dialogue as he forms his government and begins to tackle
the many challenges facing Guinea.

CONAKRY 00000277 002 OF 004




9. (C)Prime Minister Kouyate agreed, highlighting that h
had already begun reaching out to others. He sid he had
visited the labor unions at their headquarters on March 1
and that he would meet with th civil-society umbrella
association at its headqarters later on March 2. He said
he would then egin visiting the headquarters of all major
poliical parties. Only after completing these
consultations would he compose his new government. Kouyae
said he planned to announce the structure of te new
government soon and then select the men an women to fill
each ministerial position after boad consultations.

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THE GUILTY MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE
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10. (C) The Ambssador said that, as part of the national
healin process, it was important not to let bygones bebygones. To the contrary, there must be credible
investigations into the killing, wounding, and desruction
of property associated with the general trike and the
state of siege. Those responsiblemust be brought to
justice and held accountable.


11. (C) Prime Minister Kouyate replied, "Impunity will not
prevail." He said that the justice system must do its job
-- "there will be no obstructionism from me." He commented
that he had already met with the committee overseeing the
investigations into crimes committed during the June 2006
and January-February 2007 strikes and state of siege. He
had offered the committee moral and material support to
complete its task.

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GOOD ELECTIONS BETTER THAN HASTY ELECTIONS
--------------


12. (C) The Ambassador asked how Prime Minister Kouyate
planned to deal with the legislative elections which
should, in principle, take place in June.


13. (C) Prime Minister Kouyate said that he wanted the
next elections in Guinea to be the "most transparent in
Africa." He said that he had not yet had time to take
stock of where things stand with regard to preparations for
the legislative elections. In a brief digression, he
recalled his proposal as ECOWAS Executive Secretary for
ECOWAS to maintain a regional inventory of electoral
equipment -- everything from computers, to voter I.D. card
machines, to ballot boxes -- and then to deploy them to
each member state as needed.


14. (C) Returning to the legislative elections in Guinea,
Kouyate said it would be better to have transparent
elections as soon as technically feasible rather than
rushing to hold elections in June without proper
preparation.


15. (C) The Ambassador told Prime Minister Kouyate that
the U.N., the European Commission, the U.S., and several
other bilateral donors have already allocated funds to
support the electoral process in Guinea but were frustrated
by the tedious pace of preparations by the Ministry of
Territorial Administration. He said that there was a
consensus among the donors that it would be impossible to
hold free, fair, transparent elections in June. He said he
thought the U.S. would accept some slippage in dates in
order to allow time to prepare for the elections, as long
as the elections were held before the end of the year.

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MEDIA LIBERALIZATION MUST CONTINUE
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16. (C) The Ambassador noted that years of effort had led
to private radio broadcasting in 2006. He regretted that
Red Berets had destroyed some private radio studios, most
notably Radio Liberte, and that the Ministry of
Communications had pulled the plug on RFI. He emphasized
the need for access to information in a democracy.


17. (C) Prime Minister Kouyate interrupted the meeting to
convoke the Minister of Communications. He said he had
already intended to order the minister to turn back on RFI
on local FM. He recalled that, as representative of La
Francophonie in Abidjan, he had advised President Gbagbo to
do the same after the Ivoirian government had interrupted
RFI broadcasts there. As for local private radio stations
in Guinea, such as Radio Liberte, Kouyate said that the
government should help defray the cost of getting them back

CONAKRY 00000277 003 OF 004


on the air following the destruction of their equipment.

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"A NEW ERA MUST BEGIN"
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18. (C) Prime Minister Kouyate said that his experience
abroad, including in the U.S., had made him a true believer
in democratic values and democratic practices, such as the
right of the people to choose their government, separation
of powers, and the right to information. He said that he
wanted the new government to be as transparent as possible.
For example, he would insist that government accounts --
both receipts and expenditures -- be published.


19. (C) The Ambassador said that the fundamental lesson
from the general strike was that "the people count" for the
first time in Guinea's history. Unfortunately, there are
still some members of the old guard who simply cannot grasp
that idea, who still believe in top-down rule, and who do
not see the point of informing the people of what the
government is doing, even when it does good things. For
decades, the government's communications policy has been
almost inexistent, because the elite attach no importance
to public opinion or world opinion.


20. (C) Prime Minister Kouyate replied, "A new era must
begin" (Il faut qu'une nouvelle ere s'ouvre.") He said
there is a "dialectical relationship" between those who
govern and the people, who must give their consent. In the
past, he said, Guineans suffered, fatalistically, through
the Sekou Toure regime; Sekou Toure wanted to create "the
new man," he only succeeded in "robotizing" the population.
Now, Kouyate continued, the Guinean people have awakened --
slowly and tardily, but they have awakened; they are no
longer willing to put up with economic deprivation; they
are no longer willing to accept a government that does not
have the people's consent.

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RELATIONS WITH PRESIDENT CONTE
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21. (C) During a brief on-on-one discussion, the
Ambassador briefed Prime Minister Kouyate on the position
the U.S. had taken during the general strike and state of
siege: in short, President Conte is the problem, there is
a leadership vacuum at the head-of-state level, and Guinea
needs to address that problem head-on. The Ambassador
summarized briefly his demarches to President of the
National Assembly Aboubacar Sompare, President of the
Supreme Court Lamine Sidime, and Chief of Defense Staff
General Kerfalla Camara.


22. (C) Prime Minister Kouyate indicated that he was aware
of our forward-leaning policy. He said that everyone must
now acknowledge that Article 34 is not a viable option,
because Sompare and Sidime do not have the courage to
invoke it to remove Conte.


23. (S) Recounting his experience over recent weeks,
Kouyate said that President Conte had told him on February
9 that he would be named Prime Minister and had asked him
to return right away from Abidjan to Conakry. Before
Kouyate could arrange a flight, however, something
happened, and Eugene Camara was appointed Prime Minister.
Kouyate said he was flabbergasted. On February 10, Mrs.
Kouyate called First Lady Henriette Conte, who was
distressed to the point of being in tears over Eugene
Camara's unexpected appointment.


24. (S) President Conte later called Kouyate in Abidjan,
asking him to return to Conakry. Kouyate responded that he
would be pleased to provide advice over the phone but that,
since Conte had not named him Prime Minister as planned, he
saw no reason to return right away to Guinea. Conte
insisted, saying that he would greet Kouyate at the
airport. Eventually, Kouyate returned to Conakry. Conte
was not at the airport, but Kouyate was taken directly to
the presidential palace. There, President Conte was
accompanied by Prime Minister Eugene Camara and Foreign
Minister Mamady Conde. President Conte asked Camara and
Conde to brief Kouyate on the crisis and for Kouyate to
recommend possible solutions.


25. (S) Camara, Conde, and Kouyate then went into another
room, where the first two shared their analysis of the
situation. Kouyate said he was aghast. Their analysis was
wrong: they blamed the strike on (a) a Peuhl plot to
takeover the presidency and (b) a plot by Fode Bangoura to
seize power.

CONAKRY 00000277 004 OF 004




26. (S) Kouyate thanked them and returned to see President
Conte. He told Conte that the analysis provided by Eugene
Camara and Mamady Conde was wrong. "If the doctor makes
the wrong diagnosis, no amount of medicine will cure the
patient," he argued.


27. (S) Conte asked what he should do. Kouyate
recommended that Conte shorten his term in office and hold
an early presidential election. Kouyate said that Sekou
Toure's legacy was Guinea's independence from France, and
that Lansana Conte's legacy was maintaining Guinea's
territorial integrity despite the wars in neighboring
Liberia and Sierra Leone. Kouyate argued that if Guinea
were to crumble -- and the danger existed since 30 out of
33 prefectures had been destroyed -- then Conte's legacy
would be irremediably ruined. Kouyate claimed that Conte
took the point.


28. (S) The Ambassador asked how Kouyate, now that he is
Prime Minister, plans to manage relations with President
Conte and, especially, relations with Conte's family and
cronies. Kouyate replied, "That's my affair; I think you
will be surprised; President Conte has done everything to
facilitate my task as Prime Minister."

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COMMENT
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29. (C) Enthusiastic, self-confident, but aware of the
challenges before him, Prime Minister Kouyate is a breath
of fresh air. Unlike President Conte, he has a world view
as well as a vision for Guinea. As he said in his
acceptance speech on March 1, he wants to bring Guinea in
to "perfect harmony" with the region and the world. He
wants to end Guinea's five-decade-long isolation; he wants
Guinea to join the modern world.


30. (C) Prime Minister Kouyate's first test will be the
formation of a new government. He must meet popular
demands for real change, without drawing fire from the old
guard. Authoritarian regimes do not simply wither away and
die. The hard-liners will not concede power and privilege
without a fight.


32. (C) When choosing ministers, Kouyate must find the
right balance between continuity and change. If there is
not enough change, the people will take to the streets
again; if he attempts the wholesale removal of the old
guard, then the old guard will work to undercut him and to
make him fail. It remains to be seen whether he can pass
this critical test.


33. (C) We think that Prime Minister Kouyate may be
underestimating the resistance he is likely to receive from
the circle of greedy family members (e.g., the Second Lady)
and business cronies (e.g., Mamadou Sylla and Guido
Santullo) around Conte. Moreover, Prime Minister Kouyate
will need to use all his political and diplomatic skills to
manage President Conte's own practice of going in person to
the customs office and the Central Bank to withdraw cash as
if from his personal account. No one has succeeded in
ending this form of presidential bad governance in the
past.


34. (C) The Guinean population is celebrating the turn of
events as evidenced by the appointment of a "people's
choice" Prime Minister. They even turned out in joyous
welcome for the return of the ECOWAS delegation on March 2.
They are giving Prime Minister Kouyate time to do this
right, to select his government wisely. That said, they
will not be patient with missteps. Kouyate must take their
views into account.

MCDONALD