TFGV01: CONTE AGREES TO APPOINT A NEW PM, STRIKE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CONAKRY 000238

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR GUINEA TASK FORCE, AF/W, AF/EX, CA/OCS, DS/IP/AF
PLEASE ALSO PASS TO AID/AFR, PEACE CORPS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB PINS ASEC CASC AEMR GV
SUBJECT: TFGV01: CONTE AGREES TO APPOINT A NEW PM, STRIKE
SUSPENDED

REF: CONAKRY 236 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: PolOff Jessica Davis Ba, Reason 1.4 (b,d)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) ECOWAS envoy and former Nigerian President Ibrahim
Babangida announced February 25 that President Lansana Conte
has agreed to appoint a new consensus prime minister from a
short list of names proposed by the unions and civil society.
The inter-union coalition suspended the general strike
effective at midnight February 26, designating the day of the
26th as a national day of prayer. Babangida offered himself
as "moral guarantor" of this agreement and will return to
Conakry on March 2 to assess progress.


2. (C) Babangida's intervention has yielded a necessary
next step but whether it will be sufficient remains to be
seen, even if it is fully implemented -- and the individual
selected agrees to serve. The public event at which the
ECOWAS delegation declared success was not attended by any
government or military officials, although national
television and radio broadcast the speeches. We will be
closely watching the formation of the new government to
determine how balanced and broad-based it actually is. As
long as Conte and his circle remain in place, any government,
no matter how well intentioned, is likely to be
dysfunctional. End Summary.

--------------
ECOWAS Delegation Takes It to Conte
--------------


3. (C) Following intensive meetings with all sectors of
Guinean society February 22-24 (Conakry 235, 236),the ECOWAS
delegation led by former Nigerian President Ibrahim Babangida
met on the afternoon of February 24 with President Lansana
Conte. Meeting at his village home in Wawa, they informed
him that the people would accept nothing less than for Conte
to appoint a new prime minister, to serve as head of a
government of broad consensus. Conte reportedly agreed to do
so.


4. (C) The morning of February 25, Babangida and ECOWAS
Executive Secretary Mohammed Ibn Chambas asked unions and
civil society to propose specific names of individuals they
would accept as a prime minister. The ECOWAS delegation
promised that Conte had agreed to accept to name a candidate
from the proposed list. The unions were asked to put forth
three names and civil society was asked to propose two
individuals who fit the criteria outlined in the tripartite
agreement of January 27.

--------------
And the Nominees Are...
--------------


5. (C) Unions and civil society leaders told us that they
wanted their short list to include all ethnicities and all
regions. However, they did not directly consult with these
individuals before proposing them. The candidates put forth
are:

-- Mohammed Beauvogui, the only person proposed by both the
unions and civil society, is Director General for Central and
West African Affairs at the United Nations International Fund
for Agricultural Development, based in Rome. There since
2000, Beauvogui works closely with African heads of state,
the U.N., World Bank and the IMF to implement agricultural
development projects. Prior to this position, he worked for
the U.N. Office for Project Services implementing U.N.
initiatives, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Beauvogui is a
young, fast-rising star within the U.N. system and the
international community. With a Peuhl mother and a father
from the Forest Region, he cuts across two ethnicities, but
he is not readily identified with either -- an important
asset at this critical juncture. Many of our interlocutors
believe if chosen, Beauvogui will not accept.

-- Lansana Kouyate was one of the union candidates. Based in
Abidjan, he is currently the Special Representative of the
International Organization of "la Francophonie," working on
elections and transparency issues. Kouyate served as ECOWAS
Executive Secretary from 1997 until Chambas assumed this

CONAKRY 00000238 002 OF 004


position in 2002. Prior to ECOWAS, Kouyate was U.N.
Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs focusing on
West African issues and Vice President of the U.N. Economic
and Social Council. A former Guinean diplomat, he served as
ambassador to Egypt, Sudan, Turkey, Jordan, Syria, and
Lebanon. Kouyate's mother is a Soussou from Conte's village,
but he is of the lower griot caste, a disadvantage here.
Kouyate has been asked several times in the past to accept
the prime ministership and has declined each time. Kouyate
was in Guinea for several days during the strike for
consultations.

-- Kabinet Komara was the second candidate proposed by civil
society. Komara is the Director of Projects and
Administrative Services for the African Export-Import Bank
based in Cairo, Egypt. He seems to have been associated with
the bank since its founding in 1993. A journalist by
training, in 1990 he was appointed to the Transitional
Committee for National Redressment (CTRN),the entity that
drafted and refined Guinea's constitution. Komara, an ethnic
Malinke, is revered in Kankan where he and his wife
consistently provide the local hospital with basic supplies.


-- Saidou Diallo was the final union proposition. Diallo is
currently the General Director of the Guinean Social Security
system. He is an economist by training and was a former Vice
Governor of the Central Bank during the 1980s. Diallo was
the Director of Integration at the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs and Ambassador to Nigeria in the 1990s. He is Peuhl.


-- A fifth candidate, the head of the Guinean Red Cross, was
generally rejected due to political baggage from the Sekou
Toure regime.


6. (C) Contacts in the unions, civil society, and religious
communities indicate that Beauvogui is a clear front runner
for them. He is young, of mixed ethnic heritage, and from
the underrepresented Forest Region. Our contacts at the
presidency believe that if Conte were to name a new prime
minister, he might favor Saidou Diallo, a "Guineo-Guinean"
who has worked most of his life within the country in various
administrative positions. Babangida told the representatives
that Conte promised to name the new prime minister before
March 2.

-------------- --------------
ECOWAS Announces Breakthrough and Moral Guarantee
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Representatives from Guinean society and the
international community gathered at the Palais du Peuple for
the February 25 press conference. Notably absent were the
Guinean government and the military. Not even the National
Assembly President, Aboubacar Sompare, attended, even though
the event took place in the National Assembly's meeting hall.
As the press conference was delayed a couple of hours, many
in the crowd wondered if Conte had had a change of heart.
When Babangida returned and opened the press conference, he
allayed these fears.


8. (SBU) Babangida expressed gratitude for the honor to
serve as special envoy to "this beautiful country that is
held in high esteem throughout Africa for its special place
in history." He thanked Conte for his warm reception and
support for his work, demonstrating that Conte is truly "the
father of the country". Babangida remarked on the patriotism
and commitment of his interlocutors.


9. (SBU) Chambas read out the communique, declaring that
following consultations, all actors agreed to the
propositions set forth and that Conte agreed to name a new
prime minister. The crowd responded with resounding applause
and cheers. The communique stated that the unions would
suspend the strike on February 26, with workers due back to
work on February 27. Babangida would be the moral guarantor
of this accord and return to Guinea on March 2 to assure that
it has been implemented. Chambas also called on the
international community to mobilize resources for Guinea's
development.

--------------
Unions Call Off Strike and Others Give Thanks
--------------


CONAKRY 00000238 003 OF 004



10. (SBU) Rabiatou Serah Diallo, CNTG General Secretary,
thanked both Babangida and Conte for their contributions to
the resolution. Ibrahima Fofana, USTG General Secretary,
congratulated Guinea's workers on their achievements and said
that February 26 should be dedicated to the memory of all the
victims. He asked for the immediate and unconditional
liberation of all detainees arrested during the strike and
state of siege. He announced that the unions would suspend
the strike at midnight February 26.


11. (SBU) National Council of Civil Society Organizations of
Guinea President Ben Sekou Sylla remarked that Guineans are
ripe for change. "No longer would they accept corruption,
embezzlement, and misery," he said. He thanked Guineans in
the Diaspora for their support and the international
community for assistance in caring for the victims of
violence.

--------------
Initial Public Reaction Appears Positive
--------------


12. (C) Guinean national radio broadcast the statements in
their entirety on the February 25 evening news, summarizing
the general content in all of Guinea's major languages.
Initial feedback has been positive. Union and civil society
representatives told us they plan to meet over the next few
days to propose additional candidates to comprise a new
government. On February 26, Rabiatou Diallo called Poloff to
express sincere thanks to the Embassy, the Ambassador, and
other officers, and for the support of the American people in
keeping attention focused on Guinea's crisis. Diallo said
that she feels good about the progress made to date, but
emphasized that now the real work begins.


13. (C) People were overjoyed with the ECOWAS-facilitated
accord; many leaders left the Palais du Peuple singing the
Guinean national anthem. The involvement of ECOWAS meant the
crisis was no longer isolated as a Guinean problem. They
underscored that Babangida's shrewd negotiations forced each
side to see their shortcomings, making them amenable to
compromise. Most felt assured that Conte will "have to"
appoint a new prime minister. Others were far more hesitant
and said that celebration was premature -- Conte has made
this promise before and has yet to keep his word.


14. (C) The military leadership has made no public
statements since General Kerfalla's February 23 order that
all workers should return on the 26th. Union leaders and
others emphasized that Kerfalla had no authority to issue
this order and expressed doubt that anyone would obey it.
They set their own suspension purposefully in contradiction
of Kerfalla's date. The presidents of the National Assembly,
Supreme Court, and Economic and Social Council have been
conspicuously absent since the resounding defeat of Conte's
proposal to extend the state of siege (although Sompare got
credit among some local observers for allowing the assembly
session to play out as it did). The religious leaders are
now recognized by most to have taken their place as the key
Guinean mediators. Current members of Conte's cabinet have
kept a low profile for last few weeks, and many expect that
they will soon lose their positions. Other government
contacts have expressed their excitement about a "new era."



15. (SBU) At present, there is moderate traffic in Conakry
and some smaller shops resumed normal business. The larger
stores remained closed, awaiting the official suspension of
the strike at midnight. The mood in the streets is calm and
does not reflect the tension of previous days. There was no
presence of military, gendarmes, or police in neighborhoods
throughout the capital. The conditions are similar in the
interior, where most citizens are preparing to resume normal
activities.

--------------
Comment
--------------


16. (C) The ECOWAS-brokered deal constitutes an important
step forward to the extent that it resolves the immediate,
acute crisis. Authoritarian regimes seldom die, however,
without putting up a fight. Even if President Conte appoints
a new, more consensual prime minister this week, one can
expect a battle royal over ministerial positions when the new
prime minister begins to form his government.

CONAKRY 00000238 004 OF 004




17. (C) Moreover, as long as President Conte remains in
office, certain greedy members of his family, his corrupt
civilian and military subordinates, and his business cronies
will continue to be in a position to exert negative influence
and to inhibit normal governance. Guinea appears to have
overcome its immediate crisis, but government operations will
likely remain dysfunctional as long as Conte is President of
the Republic.

MCDONALD