TFGV01: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DISAVOWS PRESIDENT CONTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000235

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR GUINEA TASK FORCE, AF/W, AF/EX, CA/OCS, DS/IP/AF
PLEASE ALSO PASS TO AID/AFR, PEACE CORPS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PINS ASEC CASC AEMR GV
SUBJECT: TFGV01: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DISAVOWS PRESIDENT CONTE

REF: CONAKRY 229 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: DCM Julie Winn, Reason 1.4 (b,d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Guinea is in flux politically as key players struggle
to absorb the implications of several developments February

23. The National Assembly, for the first time ever,
unanimously defeated a Conte initiative by rejecting
extension of the state of siege. Chief of Defense Staff
General Kerfalla Camara did not permit this check to prevent
a preplanned demand that all workers return to their jobs
February 26. These two acts took place as a high-level
ECOWAS delegation pursued an intensive round of discussions,
begun the day before, with the government, labor unions,
political parties, civil society, and the military. For the
moment, the streets are peaceful and busier than they have
been for some time. The legislature's rejection of the state
of siege is a significant, perhaps even lethal, blow to the
Conte regime, but it is not immediately mortal. End Summary.


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National Assembly Says "No"
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2. (C) The National Assembly dealt a firm and unprecedented
rebuke to President Lansana Conte February 23. Called into
special session to extend the state of siege in effect since
February 12, they refused -- unanimously -- to do so. This
marks the first time the National Assembly has ever rejected
a proposal by Conte. All observers expected the
legislature, hitherto a bastion of Conte support through its
majority PUP membership, to rubber-stamp the extension.
Instead, leaders of both PUP and UPR, the Assembly's only
opposition party, gave declarations supporting an end to the
state of siege.


3. (C) After a delayed opening of the session and an
immediate suspension for consultations, UPR chair Ousmane Bah
led off with a fiery but anticipated speech in which he
denounced the government's role in the crisis, saluted the
popular will and rejected any extension of the state of siege.


4. (C) PUP parliamentary chief Banire Diallo also opened as
expected, with a denunciation of the vandalism during the
strike, and homage to President Conte and the security forces
for restoring order and peace. He closed, however, by
suggesting that "he did not think it good to continue the
state of siege." To the surprise of most Guineans, other PUP
deputies immediately stepped forward to decry his final
statement -- because it was too weak. They declared angrily
that the caucus had agreed PUP would "demand" a rejection of
the extension request. The ensuing celebratory pandemonium
made clear that the Assembly's refusal to vote an extension
was unanimous. (Comment: Opposition leader Sidya Toure told
Ambassador late February 23 that PUP deputies had been
inundated by text messages from their districts suggesting
that if they did not reject the state of siege, they should
not bother coming home. In some cases the message was
expanded to include the threat that their homes would no
longer exist, a reference to crowd action two weeks ago
targeting properties belonging to officials of the Conte
government.)


5. (C) The deputies, at the behest of Assembly President
Aboubacar Sompare, decided to vote on an affirmative
resolution before closing the session. In that bill, which
reflects some compromises, they recommended against a
continued state of siege, complimented the head of state for
his wise handling of the crisis, complimented Sompare and
others for their role in facilitating dialogue, condemned the
violence and vandalism committed on all sides, thanked the
population for respecting the state of siege while it was in
effect, and invited the unions to consider lifting the
general strike.

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MEANWHILE DIALOGUE AND TALKS CONTINUE
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6. (C) As the National Assembly pursued its special session,
the ECOWAS delegation, led by former Nigerian President
Babingida accompanied by ECOWAS Executive Secretary Chambas,

CONAKRY 00000235 002 OF 003


met with key actors. An ECOWAS rep sat in on the National
Assembly session. Meanwhile, Babangida and his delegation
met with the Prime Minister, key ministers, the labor unions,
political parties (both majority and opposition),civil
society, and the military.


7. (C) CNTG president Rabiatou Serah Diallo told us she felt
for the first time, following a long meeting with the ECOWAS
group, that there was a way out of the current crisis.
Talking through Guinea's plight with the ECOWAS delegation
had provided a sense of progress. These parties are
scheduled to meet again February 24. Rabiatou Diallo is
somewhat concerned that ECOWAS may press for an acceptance of
Eugene Camara as Prime Minister, since they have had
impressed on them that Conte will not back down on this
point. She notes that the unions will not back down either.
Another union representative, Taibou Diallo, told us that the
leadership has been informed by its membership (including
through threats) that this is a redline.


8. (C) Union leaders are continuing their dialogue with
Sompare, religious leaders, and regional representatives from
all parts of the country, including traditional local leaders
and wise men

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KERFALLA SHOOTS ACROSS THE BOW
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9. (C) With one big exception, little has trickled out on
the government's reaction, or that of President Conte, to the
National Assembly action. Calls Friday afternoon to military
sources yielded uncertainty at the higher levels and a "it's
a political matter" shrug at some lower levels. There did
not appear to be a "Plan B" with regard to the state of
siege.


10. (C) Nonetheless, as deputies, unions and civil society
celebrated an historic break with the past, the old school
fired a shot across their bow. On the evening radio and
television news, Chief of Defense Staff General Kerfalla
Camara issued a demand that all workers, public and private,
return to work Monday, February 26.


11. (C) Kerfalla read a declaration, in his own name, that
cited without comment the fact that the state of siege
expired by its terms February 23. He made no mention of the
National Assembly's refusal to extend it. He listed events
and acts since the January 10 start of the current strike,
including the January 27 tripartite agreement. He concluded
that since President Conte had appointed a Prime Minister who
met union demands, there remained no basis for a general
strike. Accordingly, he invited all workers to return to
their jobs Monday. He emphasized in particular the need for
the education sector to be up and running in time for
students to resume class on Thursday March 1. He concluded
by stressing the military's commitment to provide security
for the people.


12. (C) Although the operative paragraph used the word
"invite," Kerfalla prefaced this by using the term
"requisition," with the connotation "commandeer." Kerfala
apparently read a text prepared before the National Assembly
vote, although it was tweaked thereafter to note the end of
the state of siege. We had heard about it early February 23.
It is being treated by the unions and other actors as a
deliberate provocation and an act without legal authority.
Union sources (supported by other contacts who have weighed
in) tell us no one will return to work on Monday. Labor
leadership is worried that Kerfalla's declaration may be
intended to provoke unrest, giving an excuse for another
crackdown.


13. (C) Kerfalla's declaration was carried on both radio and
television. The National Assembly's resolution was read on
television, but not on any national radio broadcast. Few
Guineans have access to television, but most have radio
available.


14. (C) The military put up its usual checkpoints around
Conakry at 1800 February 23; presumably the state of siege
lasted until midnight. Despite the nominal curfew, however,
there was noticeably more traffic, vehicular and pedestrian,
into the mid-evening. Traffic February 24 is close to normal
for a Saturday morning, with no extraordinary security
visible.


CONAKRY 00000235 003 OF 003


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COMMENT
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15. (C) The surprise action by the National Assembly
constitutes a serious blow to the Conte regime. While not
immediately mortal, it is yet another signal that Conte has
lost the population --- and now even the support of his own
party. We do not believe that it was only fear of the local
consequences that prompted PUP members of parliament to
reject the state of siege unanimously, although that might
have been a motivating factor for some. More, it was the
unanimity of the population itself across the country that
demanded a similar unanimity in the legislature. We do not
believe, however, (and our conclusion is supported by
Kerfalla's decree the night of February 23) that the regime
will concede to the people and the legislature. We are not
even sure that they recognize the severity of the blow.
MCDONALD