TFGV01: SITREP 49: GUINEA UNREST, FEB. 23, 2007,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000229

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR GUINEA TASK FORCE, AF/W, AF/EX, CA/OCS, DS/IP/AF
PLEASE ALSO PASS TO AID/AFR, PEACE CORPS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV ASEC CASC ELAB PINS AEMR GV
SUBJECT: TFGV01: SITREP 49: GUINEA UNREST, FEB. 23, 2007,
1300 GMT

REF: CONAKRY 224 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: PolOff Jessica Davis Ba, Reason 1.4 (b,d)


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Situation on the Ground
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1. (C) Today, February 23, marks the last day of the state
of siege decreed on February 12. As required by the
constitution, the National Assembly was called into session
this morning. We expect the parliamentarians will ratify an
extension of the state of siege, possibly for an additional
twelve days. Many citizens have expressed concern over an
extension of the state of siege and about rumors that
security forces would make a series of arrests.


2. (SBU) At present, Conakry is quiet, but the calm is
tenuous. Most large stores and offices remain shut down.
Some grocery stores continue backdoor service or open for a
few hours during the day. There is little formal commercial
activity, as companies and workers continue to respect the
general strike. Informal markets remain active.

3. (C) Despite the expected extension of the state of siege
and potential popular backlash, there is only a light
presence of security forces. Police, gendarmes, and military
continue limited patrols, but most military have returned to
their barracks. There are no checkpoints in town outside of
curfew hours. Senior officials asked the gendarmes to
prepare for an extended state of siege, but the gendarmes
have not yet altered their public footprint.


4. (C) The airport remains open, with international flights
approved by General Kerfalla Camara, Chief of Defense Staff.
We have received reports of habitual miscommunications
between the military and civilian airport staff. On February
22, Air Senegal received military clearance to land, but the
air traffic controllers were not informed until minutes
before the flight's arrival.


5. (SBU) The port remains nominally open, with limited
staff. Ships already scheduled to arrive in Conakry are
permitted to dock and their contents are offloaded. Customs
has been closed since January, but we understand that major
importers are paying officials to "clear" their items through
the port.


6. (C) Fuel shortages persist, particularly in the interior.
In Conakry, there are several stations that continue to
sell. Upcountry, most gas stations are out of fuel and, due
to security concerns, station owners are not placing orders.
Mining companies hire soldiers to escort their fuel delivery
trucks from Conakry to their operations in other cities. The
corporations pay the soldiers up to 600,000 GNF
(approximately 115 USD) per trip, a sum that most station
owners cannot afford. Total has expressed concern that with
no ships scheduled, fuel shortages will spread.


7. (SBU) In the interior, house-to-house searches and
arrests continue. There are reports that hundreds of
citizens are in custody nationwide, mostly on military bases.
In Siguiri, the military commander used rural radio to ask
all residents to return items stolen in January from
properties belonging to Minister of State for Finance and the
Economy Madikaba Camara. The official warned that if all
items were not returned, security forces would begin
house-to-house searches, seizing property and arresting those
persons implicated in thefts.


8. (C) Many union leaders have expressed concern over direct
threats of arrest. Rabiatou Serah Diallo told PolOff that
most union leaders have received threatening phone calls and
"echoes" that an extended state of siege is designed to break
the union and popular resistance movement. Other sources
have told us of potential arrests as well.


9. (C) The Minister of Education told USAID staff that
General Kerfalla has already signed a decree ordering
Guineans to resume work on Monday, February 26, or be fired.
The reported decree is directed to all employees in the
public and private sectors and thus, by extension, to all
students. If this decree is announced over the weekend, we
understand that students will not be called back to school
until it is clear that teachers have reported for work. The
Ministry of Education is under extreme pressure to resume

CONAKRY 00000229 002 OF 003


classes to avoid "une annee blanche" or annulled school year.

--------------
Political Update
--------------


10. (SBU) An ECOWAS delegation, led by former President
Nigerian Babangida and ECOWAS Executive Secretary Chambas,
arrived in Conakry mid-day February 22, returning "at the
request of the ECOWAS and AU Presidents who have expressed
worry about the situation in Guinea." Babangida told the
press he was honored to be received by Conte again and
planned to meet with representatives from all sectors of
society "to gain a deeper appreciation of the situation."
(Note: A Conte meeting has not yet taken place but is
expected February 24).


11. (C) The ECOWAS representatives met with Prime Minister
Eugene Camara, government representatives, and the presidents
of the National Assembly, Supreme Court and Economic and
Social Council yesterday. This morning, Babangida, Chambas,
et al. are planning to meet with representatives from the
unions, political parties, and civil society, and later, with
ECOWAS and Western ambassadors.


12. (C) We received unconfirmed reports that there is
already a new government identified to be installed under the
leadership of Prime Minister Eugene Camara. Our contacts
said the persons on the list definitely do not fit the
criteria of a broad-based, "consensus" government. The
supposed new government is likely to represent the vested
interests of those who are trying to retain power. We expect
that the population will reject this government if it is
announced. It is unclear whether the street would defy the
state of siege to protest the appointment.


13. (C) On February 21, Michel Kamano, President of the
Economic and Social Council, called a meeting of the council
to discuss the crisis. Kamano insisted that the unions and
their strike are at the root of all Guinea's problems. He
said that union leaders would be prosecuted if they do not
call off the strike before Monday. He warned that if the
unions do not suspend the general strike, the next state of
siege will be longer and more stringent than the present one.
Kamano also reportedly said that the U.S., German, and
French Ambassadors have played a damaging role in the present
strike.


14. (SBU) National Assembly President Aboubacar Sompare said
on the evening news February 22 that the National Assembly
was convoked to debate extending the state of siege -- an
action necessary to secure the population. Sompare
emphasized that looting, vandalism, and violence occurred in
30 of Guinea's 33 prefectures. He drew a clear distinction
between the state of siege and the strike. Sompare
emphasized that unions have the right to strike. The
National Assembly President stated that Conte designated him
along with the Presidents of the Supreme Court and Economic
and Social Council to serve as neutral mediators. Sompare
concluded that negotiations are underway to seek a solution
to the crisis.


15. (SBU) The National Assembly convened at the Palais du
Peuple this morning at 1145. Of the 114 deputies, 86 were
present, 22 were sick or "on mission", and 1 was absent.
There is an ECOWAS parliamentary representative attending the
session. As of this writing, the deputies have yet to vote.
The presidents of the majority and parliamentary opposition
groups requested a recess for consultations. Also at the
Palais du Peuple, the unions are meeting with the ECOWAS
delegation. At 1500 hours, union leaders plan to meet with
religious leaders to discuss next steps.

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Mission Operations
--------------


16. (SBU) All employees reported for work today, and Mission
operations remain relatively normal. The Consular Section
reports increased business today, with most Amcit service
requests for passport renewals, registrations, and for
options in getting minor children to safehavens. Most of the
Amcits who come to the Embassy are dual nationals, the
majority of whom are minor children. The others are Amcit
missionaries who are determined to ride out the storm.


CONAKRY 00000229 003 OF 003



17. (C) EAC met at 1200 noon to discuss the current
socio-political situation and its implications for security.
Mission employees were instructed to remain at modified
standfast: allowed to go to work, shop, or visit friends in
non-curfew hours or otherwise stay at home. They are advised
to keep their radios and cell phones on hand and to be
vigilant.
MCDONALD