TFGV01: HOW CAN WE NEGOTIATE UNDER A STATE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000182

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FOR GUINEA TASK FORCE, AF/W, AF/EX, CA/OCS, DS/IP/AF
PLEASE ALSO PASS TO AID/AFR, PEACE CORPS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV ASEC CASC ELAB PINS AEMR GV
SUBJECT: TFGV01: HOW CAN WE NEGOTIATE UNDER A STATE OF
SIEGE?

REF: CONAKRY 180

Classified By: POLOFF JESSICA DAVIS BA, REASON 1.4 (b,d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) On February 14, Poloff met with labor union leader
Rabiatou Serah Diallo and political party leaders Sidya
Toure, President of UFR, and Ousmane Bah, President of UPR.
In separate meetings, each deplored the extensive powers
granted to Guinea's military under the state of siege. All
alleged specific instances when military officers have abused
this power. They called for an immediate lifting of the
state of siege, the withdrawal of any foreign militias (a
reference to the reported presence of Liberian ex-ULIMO/LURD
mercenaries),and the restoration of citizens' rights. They
were all concerned about a growing ethnic dimension to the
current crisis. The consensus was that to open a way
forward, Conte must make room for a fundamental transition of
power. The three noted that despite increased communication
difficulties, they are cooperating to advance the will of the
people for change. While extremely suspicious, Diallo agreed
to attend the meeting called for February 15 by National
Assembly President Aboubacar Sompare and other figures to
begin negotiations. End Summary.

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Military is Untrained and Out of Control
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2. (C) In separate meetings with Poloff on February 14,
three of Guinea's union and political party leaders alleged
that the military is abusing with complete impunity the
extensive powers given to them by the February 12 declaration
of a state of siege. Opposition leader Sidya Toure,
President of UFR, said that his supporters have recounted
several instances of military officers invading private
homes, looting, and abusing residents. Toure said that he
personally knows of one case where a military officer beat
elders in a mosque. Toure does not fear for his safety with
the Guinean military, but is fearful of foreign militia (read
Liberian) that nobody can control.


3. (C) Parliamentary opposition group leader Ousmane Bah,
President of UPR, told us his regional chiefs report that
abuses are worse in the interior. In many areas of the Fouta
Djallon, Bah's traditional party stronghold, no remnants
remain of state authority. Overwhelmed by the magnitude of
the situation, military officers are shooting people as a
means of crowd control. There are unconfirmed reports of at
least four deaths in Labe. Bah said that in border cities
such as Macenta and Guekedou, the military is using this
opportunity to exact reprisals and significant abuses are
becoming daily occurrences.


4. (C) CNTG General Secretary Rabiatou Serah Diallo
complained that the military has never fully respected
citizens' rights. Now, they have "carte blanche to shoot to
kill and destroy everything in between." Diallo expressed
fear for the safety of her family. All of the children in
her household sleep together because they fear being alone.
She lamented that due to lack of training and deep divisions
within its ranks, the military is out of control and cannot
be trusted. Diallo said, "I know that I am under direct
threat -- my government thinks that I am the enemy." Diallo
declared that without the attention of the international
community, she would already be dead.

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Ethnic Dimensions Brewing?
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5. (C) Over the last year, the union and civil society
movement has largely overcome ethnic divisions. Guineans
have demonstrated distinct solidarity -- attributed by some
to a sense of universal misery. Union and political party
leaders have gone to great lengths to avoid playing their
ethnic cards. Toure said that over the last week, he has
witnessed a distinct effort by Conte's coterie to play up
ethnic differences and anti-Peuhl sentiment. All the leaders
cautioned that if left alone, the current state of affairs
could devolve into a more ethnic-based conflict.


6. (C) Toure said that we must do everything we can "to

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avert a civil war." He expressed extreme concern over
reports that following conflicts at Camp Alpha Yaya earlier
in the week, many of the soldiers never returned to the base.
He said that arms and ammunition are missing and they have
gotten into the hand of youth who are frustrated and have
nothing to lose. Toure said that one young man recently told
him, "If the military keep shooting at us, we will kill their
families; we know where they live."

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Conte Never Negotiates
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7. (C) Sidya Toure said that he and other leaders are doing
everything possible to remain united. He stays in permanent
contact with civil society leaders. Toure said that while he
has spent the last several years urging a clean break from
Conte and Guinea's past political leadership, it is now the
unanimous message of all Guineans. Toure said that he has
been struck by the popular rejection of Conte, even in his
maternal village where demonstrators reportedly are calling
for him to step down. He cautioned that this pressure is
making Conte dig in his heels even further.


8. (C) Asked about resumption of dialogue. Toure declared,
"Conte does not dialogue; he only reacts to force." He urged
that the United States could be that force. Toure said that
though there is currently an ECOWAS representative in Guinea,
this intervention will be ineffectual. (Note: ECOWAS
Chairperson Blaise Compaore sent a relatively junior Minister
of National Unity to speak with government representatives.).
Toure urged the U.S. Government to issue a strong statement
and demand that Conte put an immediate end to the "state of
siege" and the military occupation of Guinea. He said that
Secretary Rice should send a message to Conte emphasizing

SIPDIS
that it will be his personal responsibility if chaos returns
to this region that the international community has worked so
long to stabilize.

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Unions Appear Split Over Attendance
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9. (C) Just prior to the meeting with Poloff, Rabiatou Serah
Diallo received a convocation to the Palais du Peuple on
February 15 to begin dialogue. She was concerned about
participating, fearing that the military and General Kerfalla
cannot be trusted, but told poloff February 15 that she
planned to attend. Diallo said she only agreed to do so once
it was made clear that the institution presidents were
inviting relevant actors under the auspices of General
Kerfalla. Diallo asked Poloff to contact her number two,
Amadou Diallo, to convince him also to attend. Diallo said
that she will continue to seek a durable solution to this
crisis, which must involve a transition in leadership.


10. (C) Poloff spoke with several union leaders February 15
to urge them to attend the meeting. Poloff said that the
Ambassador spoke directly with General Kerfalla who expressed
his support for dialogue and assured their security. Yamodou
Toure, another one of the four key union general secretaries
directly confirmed to us he will go. Rabiatou Diallo said
that she did not know who else would be there. We were not
able to contact USTG General Secretary Ibrahim Fofana.
Taibou Diallo, a member of the civil-military committee and
the executive board of the union coalition confirmed that
Fofana has refused to attend the meeting and dialogue with
any representative of this government. Fofana has reportedly
shut off all his phones and refused contact with national and
international labor representatives encouraging him to
participate.

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Comment
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11. (C) Union and political leaders all appeared tired and
out of sorts, and clearly felt cut off from information and
their key contacts. They underscored that Conte's regime is
doing everything in its power to prevent them from
organizing. None has control over the acts of violence by
the population. They emphasized that civilians targeting and
destroying property was wrong, and emphasized that contrary
to what the government would like for everyone to think, it
is not based on ethnicity. Soussous are destroying Soussou
houses, Peuhls robbing others Peuhls, and Malinkes burning

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down the properties of other Malinkes. They agreed that in
the present situation, they believe the situation would get
worse before it can improve. The bottom line is with Conte,
they said. None believed that Guinea's Head of State has any
interest or ability to solve the present crisis.
MCDONALD