A FIRST LOOK AT GUINEA'S NEW ELECTORAL COMMISSION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 001306

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12598: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GV
SUBJECT: A FIRST LOOK AT GUINEA'S NEW ELECTORAL COMMISSION

REF: A) CONAKRY 1271

B) CONAKRY 1140
C) CONAKRY 1301


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Guinea's new National Independent Electoral
Commission (CENI) was officially sworn in on December 6. The
commission is expected to hold an initial meeting in the next few
days in order to discuss the first order of business - election of a
CENI internal governing bureau, which includes the president. There
are at least two candidates for the president position and some
debate about who may eventually get the position. A number of
contacts indicate that Ben Sekou Syllah, a prominent civil society
leader, is the natural choice, but others suggest that the decision
may not be so straightforward. Comprising 25 members, most of whom
are over the age of 55, the CENI includes only two female
representatives and nearly half of its representatives are from the
Malinke ethnic group. END SUMMARY.

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BACKGROUND
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2. (U) President Conte's official appointment of 25 members to the
National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) on November 28
(reftel A) opens the door for Guinea to prepare for its delayed
legislative elections, initially scheduled for June 2007 and then
postponed until December 2007. In September, the Government of
Guinea announced that it was halting all elections preparations
until the CENI was officially in place (reftel B) noting that a
credible CENI is critical to ensuring transparent legislative
elections. Elections are now expected to be held sometime in 2008.



3. (U) Each of Guinea's previous elections were organized by the
Ministry of Interior with the supervision of the national electoral
commissions. However, these commissions were generally were not
independent from the government. In response, the National Assembly
passed a law in May 2007 providing for the creation of an
independent electoral commission. According to this law, the
commission is composed of 25 members: ten members from the majority
political party and its allies, ten members from the political
opposition parties, two members from the government administration
(who have no voting authority),and three members from civil
society. Members from political parties were internally selected
from within the political parties while civil society members were
selected by the National Council for Civil Society Organizations
(CNOSC).

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A LOOK AT WHO'S WHO
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4. (SBU) Of the twenty-five members, two are women. Four members -
one from the political majority, two from the opposition, and one
from civil society - are under the age of 55. Across ethnicities,
the group divides as follows: eleven Malinke, seven Peuhl, four
Soussou, and three from Forest tribes. Many of the members have
previous government experience (either in elected or appointed
positions) and/or are considered academics, although there are a few
businessmen represented as well. At least three of the opposition
party and one of the majority party commission members served on
previous electoral commissions.


5. (SBU) Representing the government are Mr. Cheick Fantamady Conde
(Malinke) and Mr. Abdoul Karim Bah (Peuhl/Soussou). Mr. Conde is
the former general secretary of the Ministry of Territorial
Administration and is currently a journalist for a private radio
station, Familia FM. Conde is a current Ministry of Interior
employee and has been there for a number of years. He is reportedly
close to former Minister of Interior, Kiridi Bangoura. Previously,
Mr. Bah served as prefect of Dubreka, which is President Conte's
hometown - a position typically reserved for Conte's close
supporters. In addition, Mr. Bah's father is the one who taught the
Koran to President Conte and it was Mr. Bah that registered
financial contributions for the President when his mother passed
away some years ago. (Note - these two commission members will
likely have some influence, but do not have voting authority).


6. (SBU) Heading up the civil society team of three members is Ben
Sekou Syllah, President of the CNOSC. He is widely considered an
influential leader from within civil society who was instrumental in
the negotiations during the strikes in January/February 2007. He is
also behind recent civil society efforts to redefine a national
strategy for change (reftel C). He is considered close to the two
other civil society members and may have supported their candidacy.
Mr. Lounceny Camara is a union member who was also active during the
January/February negotiations. Mr. Fode Abass Bangoura is
reportedly a dynamic lawyer.

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NEXT STEPS
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CONAKRY 00001306 002 OF 002




7. (SBU) Now that there is a CENI to work with, the international
community is eager to get things moving. During a regularly
scheduled elections focal group meeting attended by poloff, the
European Union, UNDP, and the Japanese Embassy on December 5,
participants discussed next steps. Noting that the upcoming
holidays will likely impede progress during the month of December,
the EU representative said that the voter registration test kits,
which will be used to revise Guinea's electoral list, are scheduled
to arrive in Conakry no later than January 2 by air. Given some
flexibility in timing to allow for customs clearance, the EU
representative was optimistic that the teams could begin testing the
equipment as early as January 7. (Note - testing teams visited
Conakry in October, but the Guinean Government did not permit them
to conduct the tests due to the lack of a CENI).


8. (SBU) The CENI's first task will be to elect an internal
governing bureau, which typically includes a President, two
vice-presidents, and a treasurer. The UNDP representative said that
the CENI plans to meet no later than December 10 and that the
commission's leadership will likely be decided then. Contacts
report that there are at least two candidates for CENI president:
civil society leader Ben Sekou Syllah and an opposition party
member, Mr. Boubacar Diallo who represents the Union Force
Democratic Guinean (UFDG) party. While the secretary general at the
Ministry of Interior and Security told poloff in the past that the
CENI leaders must be decided by consensus, commission members
(including from the UFDG and from civil society) told poloff that a
simple majority is all that is necessary.


9. (SBU) Once the CENI establishes its leadership and gets settled,
its first task will be to develop a realistic timeline for elections
preparations and decide a final election date. In addition, now
that the national commission is in place, independent commissions
will be established throughout the country at the regional,
prefectoral and sous-prefectoral levels.

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COMMENT
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10. (SBU) Conte's signing of the CENI decree has generated
significant enthusiasm and optimism among Guineans who are hoping
for credible, transparent elections in the first half of 2008. The
first test of this new CENI will be to see how - and how quickly -
members establish the commission's internal leadership. A wide
range of contacts believe that the only acceptable candidate to lead
the CENI is Ben Sekou Syllah, representing civil society. However,
contacts within the UFDG party have told poloff that Ben Syllah is
considered "too close" to Union Force Republican (UPR) party leader
Sidya Toure and that they will not support his leadership.


11. A number of contacts, including election observers in the
international donor community, are optimistic that the question of
CENI leadership will be decided in a matter of days. However, the
fact that it took nearly three months for political parties to agree
on their internal CENI candidate lists suggests that the decision
may take longer than expected. Furthermore, while some think Ben
Syllah's election is a foregone conclusion, he faces significant
opposition. Ben Syllah might be the logical choice for CENI
president, but it may take some time for competing factions to come
to that decision - or they could decide on someone else. There is
likely to be a number of behind the scenes deals as different groups
maneuver to make sure they are represented somewhere within the
CENI's executive bureau. The CENI cannot move forward as a
functioning body until it organizes internally and the end result of
that process may not be as evident as many observers believe. END
COMMENT.

CARTER