EIGHT MONTHS IN - A LOOK AT KOUYATE,S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 001268

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: EIGHT MONTHS IN - A LOOK AT KOUYATE,S
ADMINISTRATION

REF: A. SECSTATE 1245


B. SECSTATE 01139

C. SECSTATE 1229

Classified By: AMBASSADOR PHILLIP CARTER FOR REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Eight months into his administration, Prime
Minister Lansana Kouyate remains popular, but a number of
civil society leaders are frustrated with his slow pace of
reform. He continues to walk a delicate balancing act
between the demands of his political mandate and his need to
maintain a cordial working relationship with President
Lansana Conte. Kouyate's perceived slow progress does not
necessarily reflect a lack of political will. Rather, his
calculated maneuvers suggest an acute political acumen
coupled with a solid political strategy designed to move
things forward within a severely confined political space.
At the same time, while Guineans are renowned for their
patience, it is not clear how long they are willing to wait
for change - or what pace of reform is considered acceptable
evidence of progress forward. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) The entire text of this cable serves as commentary
and Embassy analysis of Guinea,s current political situation
and Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate,s administration, which
is based on information and perceptions gathered from
extensive contacts within both the government and civil
society.

--------------
GLASS HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY?
--------------


3. (C) Eight months into his tenure, Prime Minister Lansana
Kouyate has moved slowly on the objectives set before him as
outlined in the January 27 Accords, which has left a number
of his supporters disappointed and frustrated. Rather than
capitalizing on the wave of unprecedented popular support
generated by the January/February strikes, Kouyate has
appeared tentative, unwilling to confront President Lansana
Conte, and slow to overcome blockages posed by Conte,s
substantial bureaucratic machine. While Kouyate appointed
new ministers, governors and prefects, he has not penetrated
the ranks of bureaucrats who block his government,s reform
efforts and embody the rampant corruption that has undermined
Guinea,s economic progress for decades. Some critics say
that Kouyate has not delivered on what they see as the key
objectives for his administration: transparent legislative
elections, a commission of inquiry into the alleged human
rights abuses committed by security forces during the
strikes, administrative restructuring, reduction of
corruption, and economic reform.


4. (C) Preparations for legislative elections are currently
stalled with no set election date on the horizon, although
Kouyate told the Ambassador that he expects to overcome the
current blockage before the end of November (reftel A).
Kouyate did establish a human rights commission in September,
but it lacks budgetary support. As to administrative
restructuring, a number of Kouyate's supporters see his
appointment of ministers, governors and prefects as only half
the battle - they are still waiting for replacements of
senior executive officials, sous prefects, and others. On
the corruption front, a number of contacts say Kouyate may be
himself corrupt.


5. (C) However, it is important to note that Kouyate is
moving forward, albeit slower than some would like, on many
of these issues as well as other more basic improvements.
People seem to agree that the overall supply of electricity
and water has generally improved, at least in the capital
area. Solar-powered street lamps, which had been in storage
for many months, were finally taken out and installed at some
of Conakry's major intersections. During his October 11
speech before the National Assembly, Kouyate detailed a
number of specific accomplishments, many of which targeted
basic quality of life issues (reftel B). On the economic
front, inflation is down and prices seem to have stabilized.
Kouyate's economic reform program has instilled confidence on
the part of the IMF representative who has indicated publicly
that the IMF may soon restore Guinea's funded program -
although he also confided privately that he has some
lingering budgetary concerns.

--------------
GOVERNANCE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED
--------------


6. (C) At the same time, Guinea's underlying bureaucratic

CONAKRY 00001268 002 OF 003


system remains essentially unchanged. Many contacts believe
that the January/February strikes signaled a fundamental
shift in the political mentality of Guineans in that people
realized they could effect change and did not have to simply
accept the inadequacies of their government and political
leaders. That mentality shift may have occurred at the level
of individual citizens and with Kouyate and his small cadre
of appointees, but it does not appear to have manifested
itself elsewhere. Governance as a whole continues much as it
has in the past - ranks of old system, long-time government
bureaucrats continue to block reform efforts.

--------------
WALKING A POLITICAL TIGHTROPE
--------------


7. (C) In many ways, President Lansana Conte still pulls
some strings although the extent of his current power base is
unclear. Conte has sat on a number of key decrees and pieces
of legislation, which include documents establishing the
National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) and
appointments to key government offices. Under Guinean law,
the President has ten days to veto or sign newly passed
legislation - after ten days, it automatically becomes law
even without the president's signature. Despite this
provision, Kouyate and his administration have been unwilling
to implement legislation without Conte's signature, which
raises questions about Kouyate's ultimate authority. Conte
recently signed the law establishing the CENI, but the fact
that everything had been at a standstill pending his
authorization suggests that he still wields considerable
power. Kouyate is ultimately constrained by Conte's
inaction.


8. (C) To some of his supporters, Kouyate,s failure to
confront Conte suggests that he is more concerned about
keeping his job than doing it. However, another possibility
is that he is trying to keep the country from falling apart.
By playing the traditional appeasement game with Conte,
Kouyate has been able to avoid a direct inter-personal
conflict. Kouyate may be trying to avoid a situation that
could force Conte to play his cards, which could then
undermine Kouyate,s own position and possibly generate
further civil unrest. At the same time, Kouyate's tactics,
which include frequent substantive contact with the
president, could be a calculated move to build Conte's trust
and make Conte increasingly reliant on Kouyate as head of
government. Kouyate's interactions vis-a-vis the president
more likely demonstrate an acute political acumen that
critics do not fully appreciate. Furthermore, Kouyate's
targeted efforts to cultivate relationships with other
country's leaders suggests a well-defined political strategy.

--------------
ULTERIOR MOTIVES?
--------------


9. (C) Some critics question Kouyate's ultimate goals.
There have been a number of unconfirmed reports indicating
that Kouyate provided funding to certain youth organizations
in order to generate political support, that he bribed union
and civil society officials, and that he offered high-value
contracts for renovations to his office and his residence to
his nephew. In addition, press reports and contacts suggest
that Kouyate may be either supporting an opposition political
party or creating one of his own, raising questions about his
personal political ambitions. Furthermore, his
administration's slow progress on legislative elections has
people questioning whether Kouyate is intentionally delaying
the process so as to build up a stronger, personal support
base that could bolster his own bid for the presidency in

2010. These rumors and others, coupled with the government's
poor to mediocre public relations effort, engender distrust
and threaten civil society's general confidence in Kouyate.


10. (C) At the same time, Kouyate's possible aspirations for
the presidency do not necessarily preclude from him being
effective in his current job and in fact, could provide an
additional incentive. Successfully administering credible
legislative elections and delivering on other key objectives
could earn Kouyate respect and possibly generate popular
support that could win him a presidential election. However,
he needs to be careful about appearing too partisan, at least
until he can hold credible legislative elections, and keep
himself above corruption.

--------------
WHAT PACE FOR REFORM?
--------------

CONAKRY 00001268 003 OF 003




11. (C) It is unclear how long Guineans will patiently await
the fundamental political change they demanded eight months
ago. At the same time, there is no clear, unified vision of
what change means - one of the reasons the different societal
groups have been dividing within themselves. People are
looking for the entire system to change, a system that may be
fundamentally flawed, and they seem to be looking to Kouyate
to do it. However, while people seem to recognize that the
real problem is Conte, no-one seems to be willing to confront
him. This makes for a volatile situation in that people have
invested their hope in Kouyate while ignoring the fact that
the existing political system makes it extremely difficult
for Kouyate to effectively implement the change people are
demanding or at least to do it within an acceptable
timeframe. In the meantime, Kouyate is moving forward on key
issues, within the constrained political space he has to
operate in, while simultaneously trying to fix some of the
more basic quality of life issues. This may continue to
appease the population.


12. (C) Short of a military coup, the death of Conte, or
another such dramatic event forcing immediate political
change, Kouyate and Conte along with Guinea's constitutional
government structure, are what Guinea has to work with.
Embassy is considering the above-mentioned issues along with
challenges for the delayed legislative elections (reftel C)
as we review USG strategy towards Guinea. Embassy is
determining how best to work within this complicated
political environment so that we can help ensure continued
peace and stability in Guinea, along with progress towards a
stronger democracy and increased economic prosperity.
Kouyate is a key player in the movement for change and we
need to think about ways we can help him accomplish what he
has been asked to do.
CARTER