UNION LEADER SUGGESTS REOPENING POLITICAL DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 001220

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2017
TAGS: ELAB PGOV PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: UNION LEADER SUGGESTS REOPENING POLITICAL DIALOGUE

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU


1. (C) SUMMARY. Dr. Ibrahim Fofana, one of Guinea,s key
union leaders is frustrated by Prime Minister Lansana
Kouyate,s lack of progress on the January 27 Accords and
plans to urge him to take a more aggressive approach.
Dissatisfied with declining political momentum, Fofana
suggested reopening the dialogue that gave birth to the
Accords and the consensus government in early 2007. Fofana
claimed that the unions remain solidly united, but comments
suggest distrust of co-leader Mme Serah Rabiatou. Fofana
clearly sees the unions as Guinea,s primary political force,
but may be overestimating the depth of his support. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Poloff met jointly with three union leaders on
November 1, including Dr. Ibrahim Fofana, Secretary General
of the Labor Union of Guinean workers (USTG); Dr. Louis
M,Bemba Soumah, Secretary General of the Union of
Independent Teachers and Researchers of Guinea (SLECG); and
Mme Taibou Diallo who is the union liaison to the
civil-military working group. Dr. Fofana is also co-chair of
the union inter-syndicale, along with Elhadja Bah Diallo
Rabiatou Serah.

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KOUYATE NEEDS TO RAMP IT UP
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3. (C) Fofana expressed frustration and disappointment with
the consensus government, led by Prime Minister Lansana
Kouyate, which he said has failed to deliver on its mandate.
A key problem, Fofana said, is the country,s failure to
recognize the January 27 Accords as a legally binding
agreement. In many ways, the Accords are actually stronger
than current law,, he said, because they represent the
demands of the population. Fofana added that consensus
government advocates, including Kouyate and the unions, need
to aggressively assert authority.


4. (C) In the unions, next meeting with Kouyate (currently
unscheduled),Fofana said that they are going to up the
heat., He said that they already told Kouyate that he needs
to be more aggressive, but now they are going to ramp it up
a bit more., Fofana said that Kouyate needs to assume
responsibility and do the job he was put in office to do and
that is what the unions plan to tell him.

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WE SHOULD REOPEN THE DIALOGUE
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5. (SBU) Dissatisfied with declining political momentum
following the January/February strikes, Fofana suggested that
the leaders who negotiated the January 27 Accords reconvene
and renew dialogue, under the leadership of ECOWAS.
According to Fofana, the January 27 Accords were agreed to
under intense political pressure resulting from the civil
unrest and state of emergency. Fofana said that dialoguing
in a relaxed environment could ensure better, more balanced,
realistic results. In addition, Fofana said such a dialogue
could help deter further violence and confrontation.

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NO DIVISIONS HERE
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6. (C) Eight months after Kouyate,s appointment, Fofana
said the country is fundamentally split: Conte is sick,
the army is divided, the Patronat is divided, civil society
is divided, the youth are divided, and political parties are
divided., Fofana said that high-level government officials
on Conte,s payroll are behind these divisions. He added
that they are being paid to disrupt Guinean society and
ensure a lack of cohesion. Fofana said that Conte is sick,
but not that sick,, and plenty healthy enough to
manipulate the political situation.


7. (C) When asked about rumored political divisions within
the union inter-syndicale, Fofana said that the unions, as a
union of unions, are strong and united. However, he added
that any divisions are at the individual level., Fofana
said that CNTG leader, Rabiatou, is actively trying to divide
the unions. He said she has held private meetings with the
prime minister, the president and the first lady. No one
knows what she is doing or who she is representing,, Fofana
said, raising concerns about whether Rabiatou is acting
independently, but claiming to have the support of the union
inter-syndicale. When asked if he had questioned Rabiatou,
Fofana said he had not had an opportunity since they have had
conflicting travel schedules in recent months, but that he
would talk to her when she returns to the country.

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8. (SBU) Fofana also said that the political parties are
seeking to divide the unions. The parties are scared
because they see that the unions have an electoral base and
we represent better than the parties., Fofana added that
people are coming directly to the unions, regardless of
whether they are members or not, to demand the political
change embodied in the January/February strikes. They are
not seeking out the political parties, he said.

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THE ARMY SUPPORTS US
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9. (SBU) With respect to the military, Fofana said that the
army places its confidence in the unions before all others.
He added that certain military officials told him directly
that they would not plan any coup without consulting with the
unions first. Fofana said union reps are maintaining
frequent, informal contact with military representatives.

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TRANSPARENT ELECTIONS ARE IMPOSSIBLE
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10. (SBU) Skeptical of legislative elections as an effective
tool for political change, Fofana said that transparent
elections are impossible with Conte still in power., He
added that people do not have any confidence in the political
parties nor in the National Independent Electoral Commission,
which has yet to be established. Fofana said that a better
tactic would be to further delay the elections and change the
electoral code in order to allow independent candidates to
run and to improve overall electoral conditions.


11. (SBU) Poloff encouraged union leaders to instead
consider urging Kouyate to replace key administrative
officials throughout the country (those not serving in
elected positions) in order to achieve greater neutrality as
the country moves toward elections and to focus efforts on
developing a credible Electoral Commission. Poloff
emphasized that any attempts to revise the electoral code
would most certainly be time consuming and difficult to
achieve in the current political context. Fofana seemed
willing to consider these ideas and said that pushing Kouyate
to continue replacing administrative appointees would be a
good tactic.

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COMMENT
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12. (C) Based on his comments, Fofana clearly sees the
unions as the country,s main political driver. While he
claims that the unions remain united, divisions are evident.
Rumors abound and include not only the above mentioned
accusations against Rabiatou, but also allegations that
Fofana himself accepted bribes. His statement that the
January 27 Accords should be more legally binding than the
Constitution and Guinea,s laws suggest that he, and possibly
the unions, have unrealistic expectations as to the role of
the consensus government.


13. (C) Fofana,s suggestion of reconvening a dialogue on
political change could backfire. Conte is not fond of ECOWAS
and would not necessarily have a reason to dialogue if he is
not under pressure as he was earlier this year. If he
refuses to participate, it would add tension to Guinea's
current political drama that seems replete with unrealistic
expectations. Failure to meet unrealistic and in some
quarters, undefined, expectations could pose further
problems. While the goal of bringing all the parties to the
table to reevaluate the current political situation could be
useful, it is not clear that such a session would overcome
persistent and growing divisions among these groups. It is
clear that such an initiative would need to be handled very
carefully.


14. (SBU) Since the unions were widely seen as the catalyst
for political change following the January/February strikes,
Fofana likely does have a strong support base, but he may be
overestimating its depth. For example, while Fofana,s
comments regarding the military are likely accurate, the
military is itself divided and does not speak with a united
voice so it is not clear what kind of military support there
really is for the unions. END COMMENT.
CARTER