Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07CONAKRY1146
2007-10-15 15:06:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Conakry
Cable title:  

UFDG SEEKS ALLIANCES WITH OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM GV 
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VZCZCXRO9809
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #1146/01 2881506
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151506Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1759
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 001146 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GV
SUBJECT: UFDG SEEKS ALLIANCES WITH OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES
BEFORE ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 001146

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GV
SUBJECT: UFDG SEEKS ALLIANCES WITH OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES
BEFORE ELECTIONS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Leaders of the extremist opposition
party, Union Forces Democratic Guinean (UFDG),told poloff
that they are seeking to ally with like-minded opposition
parties in order to present a single candidate list for the
upcoming legislative elections. The UFDG commented on the
Guinean Government,s lack of political will to conduct
elections and detailed internal issues blocking the formal
establishment of the National Independent Electoral
Commission (CENI). Pointing to a need for capacity building
programs for political parties, the UFDG requested U.S.
Government assistance. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) On October 9, poloff met with three leaders of the
opposition party UFDG including Elhadj Ba Mamadou Bhoye,
President; Dr. Saliou Bela Diallo, Vice President; and Amadou
Oury Bah, Secretary General.

--------------
BACKGROUND
--------------


3. (SBU) As one of the five main opposition parties vying
for power in the upcoming legislative elections, the UFDG
draws its support largely from the Peuhl ethnic group based
in Middle Guinea. Ba Mamadou, party president, has been
active in Guinean politics since independence. He was forced
to flee the country under Sekou Toure,s regime, during which
time he spent six years in the U.S. working for the World
Bank as well as some years in Cote d,Ivoire and France. He
returned to Guinea in 1987 after President Lansana Conte
seized power. He was initially close to Conte and drafted a
number of speeches for him including a 1990 speech that was
seen as Conte,s political roadmap. Later, Ba Mamadou
reportedly became disenchanted with Conte,s leadership and
started opposition political activity and when political
parties were legalized in 1996, created the UFDG. The UFDG
is now reportedly seen as an extremist opposition group,
since it has repeatedly refused to negotiate or dialogue with
the government.


4. (SBU) When asked about the UFDG,s current membership, Ba
Mamadou said that it is difficult to get an exact number, but
he estimates that they have between 200,000 and 300,000
active members. Amadou Bah, party secretary general, added
that he estimates total potential voters for the UFDG in the
upcoming elections at more than 2 million. The UFDG did not

participate in the last legislative elections in 2002.

--------------
LOOKING FOR ALLIANCES
--------------


5. (SBU) According to Ba Mamadou, the UFDG is actively
negotiating with a number of competing opposition parties in
order to form alliances and/or merge parties before the
elections. Specifically, the UFDG is negotiating with the
Union Party for Progress and Renewal (UPR),which is the
other major opposition party representing a largely Peuhl
ethnic base. (Note ) The UPR is the only opposition party
holding seats in the current National Assembly). Ba Mamadou
said they are also talking to Sidya Toure of the Union Force
Republican (UFR) to see if they can identify a common
platform. The UFDG is also seeking the support of several
minor opposition parties. Ba Mamadou was noncommittal as to
whether any of these alliances would solidify, but said that
&it,s advancing, little by little.8


6. (SBU) In regards to recent press reports that former
Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo has agreed to join the
UFDG as its honorary party president, Ba Mamadou said that
the press announcements were a bit premature. He added that
the UFDG is actively negotiating with Diallo, but that no
formal agreement has been reached. &Diallo has the choice
between the UPR and the UFDG...we,re not sure who he will
join,8 Ba Mamadou said. (COMMENT ) An unconfirmed October
13 internet report indicated that Diallo may have officially
joined the UFR).


7. (SBU) When asked about his vision for these alliances, Ba
Mamadou said that the first objective is to present a
unified, communal electoral list meaning that any allied
parties would agree to jointly submit their candidates on one
party ticket. The second objective, Ba Mamadou said, is to
have the allied parties designate the new President of the
National Assembly, provided that the opposition wins. Poloff
asked Ba Mamadou if he intended for the alliance to continue
after the election of the National Assembly President, a
question he repeatedly evaded.

--------------

CONAKRY 00001146 002 OF 003


CRITICISMS FOR KOUYATE
--------------


8. (SBU) Ba Mamadou also commented on Prime Minister Lansana
Kouyate,s possible political alliances, saying that he did
not think Kouyate would align with the ruling Party for Unity
and Progress. However, &we don,t know what side Kouyate
will be on,8 he said. According to Ba Mamadou, Kouyate, a
Malinke, will likely identify with the Guinea,s People Rally
Party (RPG),which is an opposition party representing a
largely Malinke ethnic base or with the newly formed
Convergence Patriotic Guinean (CPG),which also appears to
draw Malinke support.


9. (SBU) Commenting on Kouyate,s government in general, Ba
Mamadou said that &we are disappointed; we were fooled into
thinking there was a willingness for change.8 He added that
the UFDG was hoping for absolute neutrality from Kouyate, but
instead found that his appointments of prefects and governors
were biased, alluding to ethnic and regional favoritism.

--------------
POLITICAL WILL LACKING FOR ELECTIONS
--------------


10. (SBU) Turning to elections, Ba Mamadou said that the
&population is the sole guarantee we have; the population
will not tolerate election theft.8 At the same time, Ba
Mamadou added that Guinea,s illiterate population can be
fooled, especially in rural zones. Ba Mamadou also commented
on the government,s lack of progress, saying that there are
a number of deputies within the National Assembly who are not
in a hurry to hold elections because they know that it means
they will be going home. &Political will is lacking,8 he
said. &We know that the opposition is the new majority and
if elections are transparent, we will win,8 he added.

--------------
DELAYS IN ESTABLISHING THE CENI
--------------


11. (SBU) When asked about delays in establishing CENI, Ba
Mamadou said the initial delay was due to political
disagreement over the ten opposition seats, led by Sidya
Toure of the UFR. That issue has since been resolved and the
Ministry of Interior and Security (MIS) has all 25 names for
the CENI, Ba Mamadou said. &Everything is in place, but we
still have no CENI.8 He added that the question of a
presidential decree is the current stumbling block, referring
to internal government debate as to whether President Conte
must sign an official decree or whether the law deems the
Commission official upon submission of the names to MIS.


12. (SBU) Poloff asked whether there is a clear candidate to
serve as President of the CENI, a position that the members
of the CENI must elect. Ba Mamadou said that Sidya Toure is
pushing for Ben Syllah, the president of the National Council
for Civil Society Organizations, but that the UFDG will not
support him. &He,s just a militant of the UFR, and anyway,
he doesn,t have the majority support,8 he said. Despite
poloff pressing, Ba Mamadou was unwilling to suggest an
alternate candidate. He said &there are some people in
mind, but there is no clear candidate; it,s going to take
some time, but we have time because we are waiting for the
decree to be signed.8 Ba Mamadou added that a majority vote
will decide the position. &We will know the president
before we ever get to the room because we will have decided
among ourselves before the vote is taken,8 he said. NOTE )
There is some debate within the government as to whether the
president is elected by majority or by consensus. END NOTE.

--------------
WE NEED CAPACITY BUILDING
--------------


13. (SBU) Ba Mamadou criticized the U.S. Government,s
funding of capacity building for civil society organizations
through USAID, saying the U.S. Government has ignored
political parties, which are also desperate for such
assistance. &How can you build democracy without supporting
political parties? We make democracy; we decide who
participates in the electoral process,8 he said. According
to Ba Mamadou, the government relies on the political parties
to educate the population regarding elections. He said that
he does not disagree with providing funding for civil society
organizations, but that such funding is also needed for
political parties. &It needs to be coordinated,8 he said.

--------------
COMMENT

CONAKRY 00001146 003 OF 003


--------------


14. (SBU) While the UFDG has not actively started
campaigning in the interior, the party appears to be
mobilizing for elections as it actively seeks to ally with
likely opposition partners. Given that there are five
opposition parties with significant support bases, it is
possible that they could split the vote, thereby enabling the
ruling PUP to maintain its control over the National
Assembly. An allied opposition would have a better chance of
emerging victorious. However, it is unclear whether any such
alliance would endure past the election of the National
Assembly President.


15. (SBU) Embassy strongly supports the need for a capacity
building program for political parties and has requested
funding (reftel). With the exception of the ruling PUP, few
of the parties have campaign or governing experience. The
parties seem to lack vision and cannot define any political
platform or agenda. Contacts from all the major opposition
parties are focused on elections, but have not expressed any
clear program for governing the country should they gain
control of the National Assembly. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE