LACK OF ELECTIONS PROGRESS - STALL TACTICS?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 001061

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: LACK OF ELECTIONS PROGRESS - STALL TACTICS?

REF: A. A) CONAKRY 1038


B. B) CONAKRY 1023

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (S) SUMMARY. The international donor community is
becoming increasingly frustrated with the Government of
Guinea,s (GOG) lack of progress on elections, raising
questions as to whether political will actually exists.
Within the government, several different elements appear to
be intentionally stalling while others look to sabotage the
credibility of potential opponents. No single GoG official
has emerged who can play the critical role of driving things
forward. Instead, petty politics threaten to subvert the
electoral process altogether. END SUMMARY.

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MINIMAL PROGRESS ON ELECTIONS
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2. (C) Given that the GoG has made little progress on basic
election preparations over the last few months, there is a
growing perception among observers, as well as the general
population, that the government is stalling. Formal
establishment of the Independent National Electoral
Commission (CENI) remains deadlocked because the opposition
bloc cannot reach consensus on two contested seats. The GoG
has not committed to any specific election preparation
timeline despite the fact that the United Nations Development
Program (UNDP) has provided an updated proposed timeline that
targets March for holding elections. The GoG,s official
position continues to be that elections will be held in
December despite all indications to the contrary. Meanwhile,
GoG officials point to external factors, such as the delayed
arrival of the European Union,s (EU) voter registration kits
(now scheduled to arrive in December rather than October) as
reasons for the slow pace. Exacerbating the problem of slow
progress is the fact that the GoG seems to have no public
information campaign to update the public on election
preparations.


3. (C) While many believe that the government is stalling,
the problem may simply be that the government lacks capacity
to effectively organize elections. As a result, the donor
community is looking into possible capacity building
activities, in addition to the significant support already in
place.

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EVERYONE HAS REASONS TO STALL
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4. (S) Government capability aside, there are at least two
different groups within the government that may be looking to
impede progress on elections. From President Conte,s camp,
represented by the majority &Party for Unity and Progress8
(PUP),certain elements may simply be buying time. Under the
Constitution, if the President dies, the President of the
National Assembly would assume power. Given that Conte,s
health is reportedly frail and that the PUP currently holds
the National Assembly, they have an interest in delaying as
long as they can in order to avoid the opposition possibly
taking over the National Assembly and thereby positioning
itself in line for the presidency.


5. (C) Another reason for the PUP to buy time is that it
gives the party more opportunity to either discredit Prime
Minister Kouyate,s administration or wait for it to
self-destruct. While Kouyate appointed the ministers, many
of the remaining government officials are long-time
bureaucrats who may have much to lose with a shift of power.
The Ministry of Interior, which is responsible for organizing
the elections, has a number of these employees on staff.
Finally, delayed elections give the PUP much needed time to
try and rebuild its popular support base, which was heavily
degraded during the January/February strike.


6. (S) Representing the other government camp, Prime
Minister Kouyate himself may actually be stalling. Within
the first two weeks of September, a new political party was
registered at the Ministry of Interior, which is rumored to
be linked directly to Kouyate. If true, the possibility that
Kouyate is building his own political party coupled with the
idea that he may be financing youth organizations and other
elements of civil society (reftel B),signals that Kouyate is
positioning himself politically. Kouyate may be impeding
timely elections in order to build up a broader support base.



7. (C) Kouyate,s alleged political dallying is cause for
concern among civil society organizations. Embassy contacts
report that Kouyate was put into power because he was

CONAKRY 00001061 002 OF 002


perceived as an objective, non-partisan candidate. If he is
now muddying the water with political ambitions, contacts
says it raises doubts as to his integrity and ability to
fulfill his responsibilities given that his new focus on
personal gain over the national good.


8. (C) Outside of government, a third group may also be
intentionally delaying election processes. For perhaps the
first time in Guinea,s history, opposition parties may have
a real chance of assuming power. However, there are at least
five major opposition parties with no clear front-runner.
The fact that the opposition has not been able to agree on
the final two CENI seats, something that on the surface
appears to be a mere technicality, points to the likelihood
that these parties are already fighting to position
themselves within their own opposition bloc. Most of these
parties lack financing and have an uphill battle before them
as they look to campaigning across the country in order to
raise popular support. Buying time could work in their favor
as well.
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COMMENT
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9. (C) Whether elections progress is slow because of a
simple lack of capacity, intentional delay tactics on the
part of key political groups, or a combination of the two,
the fact is that they are not moving anywhere fast. These
legislative elections may be the most important elections
Guinea has seen in decades and for that reason, it is
critical that they be free and fair. Guinea seems to operate
on its own timeline, which may be acceptable to the
population if they can be assured of transparency. At the
same time, the GoG,s lack of communication poses a real
threat to short-term stability. It is not just the
international community that is looking for things to move
forward ) the local population is demanding it as well.
BROKENSHIRE