DIVISIVE STRATEGIES AMIDST RUMBLINGS OF POLITICAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 001023

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: DIVISIVE STRATEGIES AMIDST RUMBLINGS OF POLITICAL
DISSATISFACTION

REF: A. A) CONAKRY 991


B. B) CONAKRY 992

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Rumblings of political discontent have
become increasingly audible in recent weeks throughout
Guinea, spurring a spate of demonstrations, meetings, and
public debate. These various events serve as a backdrop to
troublesome political maneuverings, slanderous rumors, and
potentially divisive stratagems. Political and civil society
actors are defining positions, which seem to focus largely on
whether people are pro-change, pro-Kouyate, or both. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
PEACEFUL DEMONSTRATIONS THROUGHOUT GUINEA
--------------


2. (U) Following the majority political party PUP,s (Party
for Unity and Progress) rally on August 17, which was widely
interpreted as &anti-change,8 numerous civil society
organizations across the country have been maneuvering to
raise their visibility and define political alignments. In
addition to the PUP rally and the August 25 civil society
youth rally (reftels),unions demonstrated in front of the
Bourse du Travail on September 4, civil society organizations
demonstrated in regional capitals throughout the country on
September 6, and youth groups mobilized to form a National
Youth Council (although this meeting reportedly did not take
place on September 5 as planned). There have also been a few
small, unorganized demonstrations in Conakry protesting the
general population,s lack of access to electricity and
running water.

--------------
RUMORS OF BRIBES TO CIVIL SOCIETY
--------------


3. (C) Poloff met individually with Naby Diakite, Official
Spokesperson for the National Council for Civil Society
Organizations of Guinea (CNOSCG) on August 29; Bakary Fofana,
Vice President for Economic Affairs for the CNOSCG on August
30; and Ben Sekou Syllah, President of the CNOSCG on
September 6. All three are long-time contacts of the Embassy
who are either current or former collaborators on USAID
funded programs.


4. (S) Recently, local press reported rumors of bribes
offered by Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate,s government to
various civil society representatives as an incentive to
mobilize public support for Kouyate. Diakite said a number
of possible recipients had been named, including Bakary
Fofana (CNOSCG),Dr. Ibrahim Fofana, head of the USTG (Labor
Union of Guinean Workers),and Elhadja Sera Rabiatou, head of
the CNTG (National Confederation of Guinean Workers).
Diakite added that he doubts most of them accepted bribes,
but a few may have done so. Ben Syllah privately confided to
poloff that Kouyate had personally offered to provide
financial support to the CNOSCG, which Syllah interpreted as
an indirect bribe. Syllah added that he knows certain union
members accepted money, but would not name names. However,
Syllah said that Rabiatou intentionally boycotted the
September 4 union demonstration because she saw the message
as &too pro-Kouyate.8


5. (S) With respect to the National Council for Youth event
that was scheduled for September 5, Syllah said that Kouyate
provided financing to various youth organizations as an
incentive to rally support for his government. Syllah said
that when Kouyate recently renovated his office, he gave the
contract to his nephew without opening the contract to
competition. According to Syllah, Kouyate then gave
additional money (Syllah said about USD 24,000) to this same
nephew with instructions to organize youth groups and
establish a National Council of Youth that would be
pro-Kouyate. Sylla added that Kouyate has also had cigarette
lighters, hats, and pens made with his name on them to be
handed out to supporters (Note ) Embassy officials have not
seen such articles).

--------------
MANIPULATING ETHNICITY FOR POLITICAL GAIN
--------------


6. (C) Syllah said he finds the organization of youth groups
particularly disturbing as such civil society movements
should naturally begin at the grassroots level. In addition,
Syllah said that as the youth groups organize politically,
they are splitting the population along ethnic lines.
According to Syllah, there is now an association of youth

CONAKRY 00001023 002 OF 003


organizations that support President Conte and are largely
Soussou; another group represented by opposition political
parties, which is primarily Peuhl; and a larger group
supporting Kouyate that is mostly Malinke. Diakite echoed
concerns of divisions along ethnic lines, saying that
political forces are manipulating ethnicity in order to build
bases of support.

--------------
SUSPICIONS OF NEFARIOUS CONNECTIONS
--------------


7. (S) Diakite also pointed to links between Kouyate and
controversial millionaire Mamadou Syllah. He said that
during the state of siege in January and February, Kouyate
contacted Diakite and proposed a meeting. When Mamadou
Syllah,s brother later called Diakite and said it would be
held at Mamadou Syllah,s residence, Diakite said he refused
to go. He added that during the January/February tripartite
negotiations, civil society organizations were under a great
deal of pressure to propose and accept Kouyate as Prime
Minister. According to Diakite, the only reason the labor
unions put forth Kouyate,s name was because President
Conte,s wife, Henriette Conte, suggested the name to CNTG
head Rabiatou.

--------------
PRO-CHANGE OR PRO-KOUYATE?
--------------


8. (C) While civil society organizations have been very
active in recent weeks, Diakite said that within the CNOSCG,
civil society is increasingly fragmented. According to
Diakite, there are a number of groups who continue to support
Kouyate, but there is a growing number of groups that support
the concept of change rather than Kouyate per se. Diakite
added that Kouyate is confused about his support base and
thinks that he embodies the change people seek when in fact,
if he does not deliver on his mandate, the people will not
hesitate to remove him. &When we put him there, we were
looking to recreate a system of government, not a single
person institution.8 Referring to the shared first name of
the Prime Minister and the President, Diakite added &we
don,t want to exchange one Lansana for another Lansana.8


9. (C) Ben Syllah echoed Diakite,s comments when he told
poloff that Kouyate was put in place by the people. &We are
calling his administration the consensus government, but in
fact, there is no consensus,8 Syllah said. He added that
Kouyate has failed to adequately consult with the unions,
party leaders and civil society organizations that put him in
power and who ultimately, will not hesitate to remove him if
he cannot do the job. Syllah emphasized that after six
months in office, Kouyate has failed to deliver results:
&There is no progress on elections, there is no commission
to investigate human rights abuses committed during the
siege, and there is no progress on basic public services.8


10. (C) Ben Syllah expressed disappointment and frustration
with the Kouyate government, saying that he has lost faith
and no longer trusts him. He said &we feel like we have
been tricked.8 Syllah added that he does not believe that
Kouyate can recover from his inability to effect change over
the last six months. In a private meeting with Kouyate,
Syllah said he told the Prime Minister that he must act
authoritatively on key issues in order to avoid further
unrest.


11. (U) Fofana was more circumspect in his meeting with
poloff, stating that Kouyate has made mistakes, but that
there is still a possibility he can fulfill his agenda.
Fofana organized a technical committee meeting the week of
September 4 to discuss a forward strategy for engaging the
government (Reftel B).

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) While there is no confirmation that certain
individuals accepted bribes, the fact that people suspect
they did could become a divisive element within civil
society. Political activity in recent weeks suggests that
the population is becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the
current state of affairs. Some contacts tell poloff that
Kouyate could still succeed if he focuses on key initiatives:
elections, investigation into human rights abuses, and
improved public services. Other contacts indicate that
Kouyate has lost his momentum and popular support, which he
may not be able to recover from. To date, no contacts have
mentioned discussions of possible strikes or mass

CONAKRY 00001023 003 OF 003


demonstrations in the near-term.
BROKENSHIRE