Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07COLOMBO629
2007-04-27 10:07:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

MALDIVES: SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM PTER EINV MV 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 7618
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 COLOMBO 000629 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PTER EINV MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY
BOUCHER'S VISIT TO MALE'

REF: COLOMBO 289 AND PREVIOUS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 COLOMBO 000629

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PTER EINV MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY
BOUCHER'S VISIT TO MALE'

REF: COLOMBO 289 AND PREVIOUS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Your visit to Maldives comes as this
moderate Islamic nation is experiencing the political strains
of an indigenous push toward democracy that began in 2004.
Tensions between the government and opposition have slowed
the pace of constitutional reform, frustrating many. There
is potential for cross-party cooperation, but each side will
need to overcome deep distrust of the other and forgo
short-term political gains. Maldivians in both the
government and opposition are highly receptive to U.S.
inputs, so your visit is likely to have a positive impact on
the progress of reforms. We will provide you with a dossier
of biographic information and suggested key points prior to
each of your meetings in Maldives; this scene-setter provides
some background and an overview of themes you may wish to
emphasize. You will meet with President Gayoom, influential
political officials, and members of the nascent opposition.
With all interlocutors, you should stress U.S. support for an
inclusive reform process and encourage joint efforts to
revise the constitution in the lead-up to the country's
first-ever multi-party election, scheduled for 2008.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY cont'd: You will also meet resident
Ambassadors and UN officials, who, in addition to the
political situation, will likely discuss the drug problem
endemic in Maldives and raise concerns about a possible rise
in Islamic fundamentalism. Maldives' economic climate holds
potential for American investors, and we plan to have you
meet the Trade Minister. There will also be opportunities
for public diplomacy outreach, including a press event at the
American Corner in the Male' library and a discussion with
women active in politics and civil society. A scheduled
speech about the importance of democratic stability in the
region would be an excellent opportunity to emphasize
tolerance for political pluralism. In addition, you will
attend the launch of the GLOBE initiative, which allows
school children from around the world to collaborate over the
internet to track environmental data. End summary.


BACKGROUND
--------------


3. (SBU) Maldives, a moderate Islamic country, is pro-U.S.,
cooperates on American military objectives, and is responsive
to our inputs on human rights. In a single generation, it
has gone from South Asia's poorest country to that with its
highest per capita income. An indigenous push for democracy
within this small, one-hundred percent Muslim country began
in June 2004, and there is potential for successfully
establishing a liberal democracy. However, there remains a
possibility that the reform process may falter and lead to a
subsequent turn to anti-western practices. Your visit comes
at a politically sensitive time, as tensions between the
government and opposition leave the future of constitutional
reform unclear.


4. (SBU) You will be the second highest ranking American
official to visit Maldives in recent years, following Under
Secretary Henrietta Fore's successful trip in March (reftel).

SIPDIS
You will meet with several government officials, including
some from a reformist contingent known as "The New Maldives,"
led by Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed, who has worked
diligently to bring about change. Shaheed and his colleagues
perceive President Gayoom as their protector against
hard-line ministers in the cabinet, and they seem to believe
he is strongly committed to democratizing Maldives. Shaheed,
Saeed, and five other government officials have been meeting
regularly with the opposition to cover: Track 1,
constitutional reform; Track 2, legislative cooperation; and
Track 3, establishing an environment conducive to
democratization. Nevertheless, the government continues to
conduct politically motivated arrests, prosecutions, and
deportations, frustrating the opposition.

UNIQUE CHALLENGES
--------------


5. (SBU) The capital island of Male', two square kilometers
in size, is home to over 100,000 people. With the greatest
population density of any capital city in the world, Male' is
teeming with young people, some unemployed and many with

COLOMBO 00000629 002 OF 005


substance abuse problems. It is no surprise that it has been
a flash-point for protests and occasional violence. As it
attempts the transition from autocracy to democracy, Maldives
faces myriad challenges, including: distrust between the
government and opposition, minimal progress on reform
legislation, the potential for Islamic extremism to take
root, and economic strains on citizens. However, there is
potential for progress. The Commonwealth has proposed to
bring government and opposition officials together outside of
Maldives at a date still to be determined in the next months
to facilitate talks on constitutional revisions. We think
you should urge the government to show restraint and patience
in dealing with the opposition. Likewise, we suggest you
encourage the opposition to stay engaged in political
discussions and processes. Such feedback coming from a
highly placed American official is likely to have a positive
impact.

TENSIONS HIGH BETWEEN
GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION
--------------


6. (SBU) The government and nascent opposition remain deeply
wary of one another. The latest incident to raise tension
occurred on April 15, following the discovery of a corpse
floating in a lagoon. Many suspected the victim, who had
been in detention, was killed in police custody. Security
forces reported that police had released the detainee, who
died in unknown circumstances afterward, but the deceased's
family did not accept that account. The opposition gathered
in Male' to demand explanations, and a spontaneous
demonstration ensued.


7. (SBU) The press carried photos of the protest, during
which police hit the opposition leader in the face before
arresting him along with 12 others. Several detainees,
including the opposition leader, were released the following
day. The Maldivian government announced it had been
exonerated by an autopsy conducted in Sri Lanka, while the
deceased's family and the opposition continued to demand an
independent investigation. The government made several
public statements calling on the opposition to stop using the
incident for political gain. On April 25, the government
ratcheted up the pressure when a court summoned four
opposition activists for violating freedom of assembly
regulations in 2006. On April 19, the Immigration Controller
also deported Adam Cooper, a dual American-UK national
working as a consultant to the MDP with a local work permit.
Cooper got in touch with our Embassy, and the Ambassador
contacted the Attorney General to ask about his case. The
Attorney General's office confirmed that Cooper would be
blacklisted from Maldives for two years. However, Cooper
reported that on April 25, MDP officials met with immigration
officials and requested that he be permitted to return to
Maldives and remain until July, when his replacement is due
to arrive. The Defense Minister, who has authority over
immigration issues, said he would consider the request,
Cooper told us.

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PRESSURES
--------------


8. (U) Maldives' economy, while small, is growing quickly and
offers potential for U.S. exports and investment, especially
in the tourism, aviation, and energy sectors. These issues
will feature prominently in your meeting with the Trade
Minister. However, economic concerns have created some
strain in Maldives. Many locals, reluctant to break up
family units by moving to resort islands to work, depend
heavily on the fishing industry for income.


9. (SBU) The absence of a university in Maldives has left an
opening for extremists from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to
offer scholarships to young Maldivians. After attending
madrassahs overseas, these students often return home to
espouse a fundamentalist strain of Islam antithetical to
Maldives' moderate cultural roots. Many Embassy contacts
have commented on the rising popularity of the Islamist
Adalath (Justice) Party, which promotes "Koran over
Constitution" ideals. This small group has used its role as
a political party to circumvent strict laws that limit public
proselytizing. Government officials will likely raise

COLOMBO 00000629 003 OF 005


concerns about the potential for religious extremism. You
might respond that the Embassy will use International Visitor
and Speaker Programs and U.S.-Maldives Friendship Week to
provide cultural exchanges that could act as one
counterweight to extremist voices. We are also working with
Ambassador Tahir-Kheli to develop programs to encourage the
role of women, who have a strong stake in maintaining
moderate Islam.


10. (SBU) Another major social pressure in Maldives is the
prevalence of drugs, primarily heroin in the form of "brown
sugar" from India, which is smoked. In January 2007 the
UNICEF Resident Representative in Male' estimated up to
25,000 people, or 7 percent of the population, regularly use
hard drugs. UNICEF also cited anecdotal evidence that
intravenous drug use may be on the rise, creating the
potential for a serious public health threat. UN officials
will brief you further on this topic, and you will also have
an opportunity to visit a drug treatment facility run by an
American firm, Synapse.

MESSAGES FOR YOUR MEETING WITH
PRESIDENT GAYOOM
--------------


11. (SBU) President Gayoom has ruled the country for 28 years
and remains the primary catalyst in the democratization
process. He announced the need for "sweeping reforms" in
2004 in response to local and international pressure
following a custodial death, a subsequent prison riot, and
demonstrations in Male'. Since then, Maldives has made some
notable strides forward, including the legal recognition of
political parties in June 2005, improved prison conditions,
increased freedom of assembly, and further freedom of the
press.


12. (SBU) Key messages:
-- Laud the government's progress to date, especially
welcoming the June 2005 cabinet reshuffle that brought
reformists such as Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed into the
foreground.

-- Express appreciation for the March 2006 publication of the
"Roadmap for Reform" and urge the President to act within its
spirit and keep to its time-table during this period of
transition.

-- Note that the U.S. welcomes the commitment to hold
Maldives' first-ever multi-party election in 2008. If it is
successful, Maldives has the potential to be an unprecedented
success story in the Muslim world.

-- President Gayoom has an excellent opportunity to cement
his legacy by facilitating constitutional reform, promoting
separation of powers, and strengthening democratic
institutions in the lead-up to the 2008 election. Encourage
him to work with the opposition and the Commonwealth to
accomplish these objectives.

MESSAGES FOR YOUR MEETINGS WITH
REFORMIST OFFICIALS
--------------


13. (SBU) When you meet with Foreign Minister Shaheed and his
friend and ally, Attorney General Hassan Saeed, they will
likely highlight the progress on reform to date. They will
acknowledge, however, that much remains to be done, and may
express concerns about the potential rise of Islamic
fundamentalism. Key messages:

-- Express appreciation for the reformists' efforts.

-- The Embassy will use the International Visitor and Speaker
programs and U.S.-Maldives Friendship Week to promote liberal
democratic ideals that may act as a counterweight to
extremist views.

-- Urge Shaheed and Saeed to foster a politically tolerant
atmosphere. When the government conducts prosecutions of
opposition members based on laws currently being revised,
this creates a perception that political dissent is still
penalized.

COLOMBO 00000629 004 OF 005



-- Encourage the use of internationally accepted standards
for freedom of assembly and of the media.

-- Encourage the government to act within the spirit of the
"Roadmap for Reform," and to cooperate with the opposition
and Commonwealth.

MESSAGES FOR YOUR MEETING WITH THE OPPOSITION
-------------- -


14. (SBU) The major opposition Maldivian Democratic Party,
the first to register once parties were legally recognized in
June 2005, has made sincere efforts to build up its
bureaucratic structures. A partnership with the UK Tories
launched in February may prove productive. However, some in
the Maldivian Democratic Party still interpret the role of
"opposition" too literally, merely rejecting government
initiatives out of hand without offering viable alternatives.
The attitude is rooted in the party's beginnings as an
activist group founded by several people who served
politically motivated detentions and suffered abuse in
custody. Nevertheless, many in the opposition now
acknowledge the need to work with reformists in the
government to implement legislative and constitutional
changes. However, the party has changed its conditions for
engaging in talks with the government several times.


15. (SBU) When you meet with opposition officials, they will
likely focus on a litany of complaints, including politically
motivated arrests and prosecutions, allegations of police
brutality, and lack of sincerity on the government's part.
You can assure them that Ambassador Blake raises these
concerns with the government The opposition also has a habit
of criticizing the president and holding him personally
responsible for all problems within the country. You should
welcome the party's commitment to strengthening democracy in
Maldives and ask that they prioritize that vital goal over
short-term political gains, and work constructively with the
Government and Commonwealth. You should urge that the party
behave responsibly and take its political role seriously
without focusing solely on civil disobedience or "street
action." You should reiterate that the U.S. supports a
peaceful transition to democracy and revision of the
constitution, ideally leading to free, fair, multi-party
election in 2008.

DEFENSE COOPERATION
--------------


16. (SBU) Maldives has often demonstrated its commitment to a
close military-to military relationship with the U.S. through
active participation in joint exercises and by sending cadets
to American service academies. Maldivian participants are
competent, professional, and willing to increase
interoperability between our forces. The Maldivian Defense
Ministry has responded quickly and positively to requests for
flight and ship clearances, and facilitated transit. In your
meeting with Defense Minister Ismail Shafeeu, you may wish to
express thanks and cmmit to continued good relations between
our respective militaries.

MESSAGES FOR POLICE CHIEF
--------------


17. (SBU) You will also meet Chief of Police Adam Zahir,
widely perceived as a hardliner. The opposition and many in
the general public believe Zahir was previously responsible
for abuse of prisoners, and the opposition often demands his
dismissal. In December 2005, the Foreign Minister was at
odds with him, privately telling poloff the police chief was
undermining reform from within the government. More
recently, Zahir has made efforts to improve the image of his
police force, inviting foreign consultants to offer feedback
and seeking training. Many in the police have responded
positively, trying to incorporate improved methods.
Nevertheless, the public often clashes with police at
demonstrations, and the special unit "Star Force" has
garnered a reputation for using undue force to break up
rallies.


18. (SBU) Key messages for Zahir:

COLOMBO 00000629 005 OF 005


-- Commend the police for seeking training opportunities and
other international assistance.

-- Note that as Maldives gains greater experience with
freedom of assembly and of expression, police should develop
a stronger understanding of appropriate methods of crowd
control and escalation of force.

-- State that rule of law is a vital component of a
democracy, and the police must earn the public's trust.

-- The security forces can be important actors in the reform
process. It will be important for them to learn more about
the pending legislation that may codify reforms.

PUBLIC DIPLOMACY OUTREACH
--------------


19. (SBU) You will have several opportunities for public
diplomacy outreach, including a press conference at the
American Corner in Male' and a speech to a local audience
about the importance of democratic stability in the region.
The Maldivian press is just growing accustomed to a modicum
of independence, and most reporters remain somewhat passive.
Questions will likely focus on American views about
democratization in Maldives. We will provide press points in
your briefing packet.


20. (SBU) A roundtable discussion with women active in
politics, business, and civil society will give you an
opportunity to hear from a dynamic, though under-represented,
group. Across the political spectrum, women have faced
similar barriers to participation and overcome similar
obstacles during the reform process. Key message:
-- Congratulate the women for their efforts and emphasize the
importance of their continuing to take on leadership roles
despite challenges.


21. (U) The opening of the GLOBE program in Maldives, likely
at a government office with students invited to attend, will
provide an opportunity to garner publicity for American
environmental efforts. As a low-lying atoll nation, Maldives
is particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming
and appreciates any assistance on environmental issues.
GLOBE, a hands-on science and education program focusing on
earth system science, is funded by NASA and the National
Science Foundation in cooperation with the State Department
and several U.S. universities. The program allows primary
and secondary school students to collect environmental data
and communicate with scientists via the internet. More than
19,000 schools in 109 countries are participating in the
worldwide effort, and to date students have reported over 16
million measurements in fields from climate to hydrology.
BLAKE