SRI LANKA: DEFENSE SECRETARY RECKONS TIGER GROUND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000214

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, MCC FOR S GROFF, D NASSIRY, E BURKE
AND F REID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: DEFENSE SECRETARY RECKONS TIGER GROUND
FORCES WEAKENED, BUT SEA TIGERS STILL FIERCE

REF: A. COLOMBO 189

B. COLOMBO 158

Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Defense Secretary Gothabaya Rajapaksa
offered his interpretation of the government security forces'
January victory in Vakarai to Ambassador and DATT on February
5 and explained the government's current military strategy.
Gothabaya noted that the security forces encountered
predominantly younger, less committed Tiger cadres in
Vakarai. The GSL's redevelopment efforts in the east, he
theorized, would head off any re-infiltration by the Tigers
and allow the security forces to "devote their full forces"
elsewhere. In particular, the military would seek to
neutralize the LTTE's navy, the "Sea Tigers." Gothabaya was
silent on whether the Army would attempt a major offensive in
the North. End summary.

Cadres Forego Cyanide
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador, DATT and PolMilOff met Government of Sri
Lanka (GSL) Defense Secretary (and brother to the President)
Gothabaya Rajapaksa on February 5. Rajapaksa offered his
interpretation of the government security forces' January
victory in Vakarai and explained the GSL's current military
strategy. Ambassador commended the Secretary for conducting
a successful battle with such low civilian causalities, after
the initial shelling incident. Gotabaya claimed that no
civilians had been killed and only 40 soldiers had been
killed in action in the two and a half month fight for
Vakarai. He emphasized that the military had been able to
minimize civilian and troop causalities by surrounding
Vakarai with small Special Forces teams rather than large
battalions and moving without a "logistical tail" open to
Tiger (LTTE) ambush.


3. (C) According to the Defense Secretary, the security
forces encountered predominantly younger Tiger cadres in
Vakarai, at least 40 percent under the age of 18, and
noticeably less well-trained. These cadres also appeared to
be less committed to fighting for the LTTE, he said,
indicating why they were willing to flee in the end. Many
more of these cadres underwent forced recruitment than in
previous years, claimed Gothabaya: "We can see that the
lower-ranked cadres have not come out willingly. They have
little motivation to fight. They aren't committed, and in
fact try to escape. We have intelligence that elsewhere in
Batticaloa district LTTE cadres are waiting for a battle in
which they can surrender." The security forces captured a
number of Tiger cadres in Vakarai. On the other hand, very
few made use of the cyanide capsule all wear around their
necks for that eventuality, according to the Secretary.

Resettlement and Development
--------------


4. (C) As the conflict has dragged on, noted the Defense
Secretary, "families have not been willing to contribute

SIPDIS
their children. Their motivating factor was an independent
state. They thought they didn't get enough from Sinhalese
governments. Now we are making an effort to provide basic
requirements -- electricity, education, roads, houses -- and
the people see the difference." Ambassador revised reports
that the GSL planned to resettle retired Sinhalese military
officers in Tamil areas. Gothabaya denied this and other
speculation by the pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and
others that the GSL is pursuing a "Sinhalization" program in
the east, adding that the Sinhalese population in Trincomalee
district has decreased from 31 percent to 21 percent since

1981. Presidential Advisor (and brother) Basil Rajapaska was

COLOMBO 00000214 002 OF 002


overseeing the Resettlement Ministry's early work to resettle
Tamil civilians in Vakarai, Gothabaya said, where the GSL
hoped to provide electricity within ten days.


5. (C) Gothabaya said the GSL would use "minimum police
force" to maintain GSL control of Vakarai and other
"liberated" areas in the east, such as Sampur, "so we can
concentrate our full forces on other things." He affirmed
that the GSL would implement development projects soon to
minimize the threat of re-infiltration by the LTTE. "There
must be a reaction from normal civilians to reject the LTTE,"
he said, adding that the International Labor Organization
(ILO) is considering a livelihoods project in Vakarai, while
the French government may be willing to rebuild the A15
highway.

Sea Tigers Strong
--------------


6. (C) While the LTTE's ground forces are clearly weaker
following the security forces' victories in the east,
Gothabaya said, the LTTE's navy, the "Sea Tigers," remain
strong. The Sea Tiger attack on a GSL food convoy at Point
Pedro, Jaffna in January emboldened the LTTE by their sinking
of two dvora "fast boats" and made the Sri Lankan Navy timid,
he thought. "The Navy is no longer as aggressive. It wants
to protect its assets, so the Sea Tigers have more leeway.
We must neutralize the Sea Tigers. We must give the Navy
some help by finding and destroying more Sea Tiger bases and
assets." In the Defense Secretary's view, the January 27
Sea Tiger attack attempt on Colombo's port targeted a naval
ship donated by India, rather than commercial vessels.
Nevertheless, the LTTE would continue to seek soft targets in
Colombo and the south as "part of their demoralization plan."

Overall Strategy
--------------


7. (C) Comment: Gothabaya assured us that the President
remains committed to the peace process "without delay, and
without respect to the military." We understand that the
security forces will try to consolidate the GSL's hold on the
east, and that the military will also pursue Sea Tiger and
artillery targets in the east and in the Tiger's northern
Vanni stronghold. Gothabaya was silent on whether the Army
would attempt a full-scale invasion of the north, as earlier
GSL statements had suggested. The Defense Secretary appears
to have realized, however, that winning Tamil hearts and
minds will be crucial to the GSL's consolidation of its new
hold on the east.
BLAKE