SRI LANKA: CABINET RESHUFFLE NARROWS MAJORITY FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 COLOMBO 000170

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS - PLEASE PASS DUSTR BHATIA
MCC FOR S GROFF, D NASSIRY, E BURKE AND F REID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM MOPS ETRD EINV CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: CABINET RESHUFFLE NARROWS MAJORITY FOR
PEACE

REF: A) COLOMBO 158 B) COLOMBO 152 C) COLOMBO 130 D)
COLOMBO 115

Classified By: DCM James R. Moore, for reasons 1.4(b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Mahinda Rajapaksa reshuffled his
cabinet on January 28. Joining the government ranks were 18
"dissident" MPs from the opposition United National Party
(UNP) and all 6 MPs from the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress
(SLMC). This gave the government, which previously had 98
seats, a total of 122 parliamentary supporters - a relatively
narrow margin in the 225-member parliament. The departure of
Mangala Samaraweera as Foreign Minister is unfortunate, since
he was one of the few willing to be candid with the President
on human rights and other issues. The government will be
less beholden to the JVP, which, with 37 MPs, will now
certainly try to make things difficult for the President. A
few important portfolios, especially on the trade and
investment side, went to MPs that the Embassy considers
moderate, effective politicians. Key UNP crossovers include
former UNP Deputy Leader Karu Jayasuriya, who was assigned to
the Ministry of Public Administration and Home Affairs, G.L.
Peiris, who was given the Ministry of Export Development and
International Trade and new Tourism Minister Milinda
Moragoda. Many of the key UNP figures are long-time
supporters of federalism, but are unlikely to have much clout
within the cabinet. The mainstream UNP is now left with 43
members of parliament, enough to retain its status as the
leading opposition party. The demise of the Memorandum of
Understanding between the two major parties does not augur
well for the future of the peace process, since it can only
make the search for a "southern consensus" on a viable
devolution proposal more difficult. Please see action
request para 2. End Summary.


2. (C) ACTION REQUEST: Embassy recommends that the Secretary
send a congratulatory note to new Foreign Minister Rohitha
Bogollagama and that DUSTR Karan Bhatia send a note to new
Minister of Export Development and International Trade G.L.
Peiris.

A New, but Slim, Majority
--------------


3. (C) President Mahinda Rajapaksa on Sunday reshuffled his
cabinet to accommodate ten "dissident" UNP members of
parliament (MPs). Another eight UNP "crossovers" were sworn
in as non-Cabinet Ministers (equivalent to Ministers of
State) or Deputy Ministers. The Sri Lankan Muslim Congress
(SLMC) received one Cabinet ministry and five deputy minister
slots. This assured Rajapaksa a total of 24 new
parliamentary supporters, for a total of 122 MPs, a
relatively narrow buffer of nine seats over a bare majority
in the 225-seat Parliament. The President was able to retain
all of his existing parliamentary supporters, including the
constituents of the United People's Freedom Alliance parties
(led by Rajapaksa's Sri Lankan Freedom Party, the SLFP),the
Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU),Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC),
Up-Country People's Front, and previous UNP, SLMC, and
Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) defectors.


4. (C) Key UNP "dissidents" now occupying significant
ministerial posts include former UNP Deputy Leader Karu
Jayasuriya, who was assigned the Ministry of Public
Administration and Home Affairs. (Navin Dissanayake, Karu's
son-in-law, did not make the cut for cabinet minister,
receiving instead the non-Cabinet Ministry of Investment
Promotion.) Several dual-hatted ministers lost one of their
portfolios to make room for the UNP crossovers. The
President was the sole exception, retaining both his roles as
Defense and Finance Minister. He did give up the Ministry of

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Higher Education.


5. (C) A few serving ministers shifted to new portfolios.
Hardline GSL Defense Spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella was moved
from the Ministry of Plan Implementation to the Ministry of
Foreign Employment, but remains Defense Spokesman. The SLFP
up-and-comer Dilan Perera did not make it into the Cabinet,
but received a "promotion" from Deputy Minister to
non-Cabinet Minister of Justice. The Ministry of Nation
Building seems to have become a catch-all for those who did
not find a home elsewhere: it will boast five non-Cabinet
Ministers with the portfolios of tsunami reconstruction,
foreign aid projects, de-mining activities, re-settlement
programs and the Estate sector (tea).

New Loyalist Foreign Minister
--------------


6. (C) The Foreign Ministry was reassigned from Mangala
Samaraweera (who retained Ports and Civil Aviation) to
Rohitha Bogollagama. The departure of Samaraweera as Foreign
Minister is unfortunate, since he was one of the few willing
to deliver tough messages to the President on issues such as
human rights. Samaraweera was unable to prevent the
crossover to the cabinet of his arch-rival from his home town
of Matara, Mahinda Wijesekara, a UNP member of Parliament
with a malodorous reputation, who received the "Ministry of
Special Projects."


7. (C) The Ambassador offered congratulations to Bogollagama
on January 29. The new Foreign Minister expressed his desire
to travel to Washington in March, in part to meet Secretary
Rice. Ambassador will follow up with Bogollagama next week
on his plans to visit Washington. A Rajapaksa loyalist,
Bogollagama is less likely to convey to the President any
messages Rajapaksa doesn't want to hear. Bogollagama, a
lawyer turned politician, worked closely with the Embassy as
a legal advisor to Voice of America in the 1990s.

Dissidents Try to Remain in UNP
--------------


8. (C) The mainstream UNP, now left with 43 members of
Parliament, has enough seats to maintain its role as the
leading opposition party. Moreover, the UNP will probably
remain nominally the largest party in parliament, since the
crossover MPs will seek to retain their party identification.
While the Wickremesinghe loyalists will almost certainly try
to expel the defectors, they probably will not be able to do
so. An MP can appeal his expulsion to the Supreme Court,
which in the past has ruled in favor of crossovers. This is
important because otherwise the UNP could replace them as
members of Parliament, and they would forfeit their
ministerial positions. Further, a possible motivating factor
for some crossover MPs may have been to acquire immunity as
ministers from corruption charges pending from the last UNP
stint in power, from 2001-2004. The local press has recently
highlighted some of these charges against (among others)
Gamini Lokuge, Karu Jayasuriya, and R.M. Dharmadasa Banda.
If true, this would give the culpable ones every reason to
fight for their new positions. The two factions of the UNP
are therefore probably doomed to live together in a divided
house for the foreseeable future.

Proponents of Peace and Federalism
--------------


9. (C) Many of the UNP crossovers have been long-time,
fervent supporters of federalism. Two of them, G.L. Peiris
and Milinda Moragoda, were part of the UNP team that led
negotiations on the 2002 Cease-fire Agreement with the LTTE.

COLOMBO 00000170 003 OF 005


However, these moderates are unlikely to wield real clout
within the new Cabinet. They will have their work cut out
for them if they intend to exercise a strong, positive
influence on the peace process. Moragoda told the Ambassador
on January 25 that he blamed UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe
for not taking action sooner to stop the bleeding in the UNP.
Moragoda said the UNP crossovers would be joining the
Government as a block of reformers -- and would not endorse
the President's pre-election agenda, the Mahinda Chintana
("Mahinda's Thoughts"). He admitted, however, that he was
unsure whether they would be able to influence the
Rajapaksas. He added that if the reformers did not make
progress, they would leave the government. Moragoda said he
had been hesitant to accept a cabinet portfolio because of
the patronage demands that come with such posts, but the
President had insisted he take one.


10. (C) SLMC leader Rauff Hakeem, the new Minister of Posts
and Telecommunications, told Ambassador on January 29 that he
and his party intended to work closely with the UNP
crossovers to promote a negotiated solution to the conflict.
However, he cautioned that some of the crossovers belonged to
the more hard-line side of the UNP, so he would need to
proceed with care. Hakeem felt compelled to join the
Government in order to keep his party from splintering. If
he had not agreed to cross over, he stood to lose all but one
supporter among his parliamentary group.

JVP Now Free to Make Trouble
--------------


11. (C) The JVP, with 37 members, now certainly will try
even harder to make things difficult for the government. The
party is already organizing a general strike for February 2.
Samaraweera told Ambassador Blake on January 29 that it will
now be harder for the SLFP to work with the JVP. The
President, however, told the Ambassador that if the JVP makes
trouble, "we'll call elections."

Key Economic Portfolios Go To Respected Figures
-------------- --


12. (C) The new ministers who will have the most contact
with the USG on trade and investment are solid veterans.
Crossover G.L. Peiris, Minister of Export Development and
International Trade, will oversee bilateral and multilateral
trade issues. Peiris is a highly-regarded elder statesman
who has held numerous ministries, including finance. Another
former finance minister, Dr. Sarath Amunagama, will have
responsibility for the Board of Investment as the new
Minister of Enterprise Development and Investment Promotion,
replacing Bogollagama. P. Dayaratne, an engineer and former
UNP power and energy minister, will run the Ministry of Plan
Implementation, which handles liaison with the Millennium
Challenge Corporation.

The New Line-Up
--------------


13. (U) Following is a list of the new Cabinet ministers and
their portfolios. (UNP and SLMP crossovers marked with an
asterisk).

Ratnasiri Wickremanayake, Prime Minister, Minister of
Internal Administration
Anura Bandaranaike, Minister of National Heritage
D.M. Jayaratne, Minister of Plantation Industries
Nimal Siripala de Silva, Minister of Healthcare and Nutrition
Mangala Samaraweera, Minister of Ports and Aviation
A.H.M. Fowzie, Minister of Petroleum and Petroleum Resources
Development

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Jeyaraj Fernandopulle, Minister of Highways and Road
Development
Mithripala Sirisena, Minister of Agriculture Development and
Agrarian Services Development
Susil Premajayantha, Minister of Education
Karu Jayasuriya, Minister of Public Administration and Home
Affairs*
Arumugan Thondaman, Minister of Youth Empowerment and
Socio-Economic Development
Rauff Hakeem, Minister of Posts and Telecommunications*
Dinesh Gunawardena, Minister of Urban Development and Sacred
Area Development
Douglas Devananda, Minister of Social Services and Social
Welfare
Ferial Ashraff, Minister of Housing and Common Amenities

P. Chandrasekeran, Minister of Constitutional Affairs and
National Integration
A.L.M. Athaullah, Minister of Water Supply and Drainage
Prof. Tissa Witarana, Minister of Science and Technology
D.E.W. Gunasekera, Minister of Constitutional Affairs and
National Integration
Abdul Risath Bathiyutheen, Minister of Resettlement and
Disaster Relief Services

P. Dayaratne, Minister of Plan Implementation*
R.M. Dharmadasa Banda, Minister of Supplementary Crops
Development*

M. H. Mohomed, Minister of Parliamentary Affairs*
Prof. G.L. Peiris, Minister of Export Development and
International Trade*
John Senaviratne, Minister of Power and Energy
Sumedha Jayasena, Minister of Child Development and Women's
Empowerment
Dr. Sarath Amunugama, Minister of Enterprise Development and
Investment Promotion
Milroy Fernando, Minister of Public Estate Management and
Development
Jeewan Kumaranatunga, Minister of Land and Land Development
Pavithra Wanniarachchi, Minister of Youth Affairs
Anura Priyadarshana Yapa, Minister of Mass Media and
Information
Tissa Karaliyadda, Minister of Indigenous Medicine
Athauda Senviratne, Minister of Labour Relations and Manpower
Gamini Lokuge, Minister of Sports and Public Recreation
Bandula Gunawardana, Minister of Trade, Marketing
Development, Co-Operatives and Consumer Services
Mahinda Samarasinghe, Minister of Disaster Management and
Human Rights
Rajitha Senaratne, Minister of Construction and Engineering
Services
Mahinda Wijesekera, Minister of Special Projects
Milinda Moragoda, Minister of Tourism
Keheliya Rambukwella, Minister of Foreign Employment
Promotion and Welfare
Piyasena Gamage, Minister of Vocational and Technical Training
M.S.B. Navinna, Minister of Rural Industries and
Self-Employment Promotion
Janaka Bandara Tennakoon, Minister of Local Government and
Provincial Councils
Felix Perera, Minister of Fisheries and Aquatic Affairs
R.M.C.B. Ratnayake, Minister of Livestock Development
Rohitha Bogollagama, Minister of Foreign Affairs
Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena, Minister of Cultural Affairs
Prof. Wiswa Warnapala, Minister of Higher Education
Kumara Welgama, Minister of Industrial Development
Dullas Alahapperuma, Minister of Transport
Amarasiri Dodangoda, Minister of Justice

COMMENT: President Aiming for New Elections?
--------------


14. (C) It is now clear that although President Rajapaksa

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acquiesced to international pressure in October 2006 to sign
the MoU with the chief opposition, he and his team never
demonstrated any real interest in implementing it. Now,
after the announcement of the new Cabinet, UNP General
Secretary Tissa Atanayake demonstratively tore up the UNP's

SIPDIS
copy of the MoU for the benefit of the media. The President
told the Ambassador on January 29 that the UNP was an
unreliable political partner and that the new arrangement
would be more sustainable. However, we think his new
coalition is brittle and may prove short-lived. The JHU and
CWC are likely the weakest links in the new line-up. Either,
for different reasons, may threaten to jump ship if they
don't approve of the GSL's new direction. For example, if
the JHU, which would like to see the Norwegians kicked out
and the CFA abrogated, pulls out, the President will be left
with majority of only one.


15. (C) Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe comes out as
the biggest loser in this reshuffle. He and Rajapaksa never
trusted one another. Ranil's principal motivation for
signing the MoU was certainly to further the peace process.
However, he also hoped to prevent his party's dissident
faction from crossing over to accept ministerial portfolios.
This strategy has now failed, leaving Ranil's grip on the UNP
leadership shakier than ever. He has elected not to
interrupt his program of foreign travel, embarking on a trip
to Nepal and India even as he lost nearly one-third of his
party's MPs to the President.


16. (C) Local political observers speculate that Rajapaksa's
ultimate aim may be to call a new election. JVP supporters,
enthusiastic about the government's recent military gains,
might switch to the President's party. The UNP, divided and
at a low ebb of its credibility, would likely also lose
support to the SLFP. It would be especially awkward for them
if the GSL pushes its military campaign further, to
"liberate" the North. In any case, Rajapaksa preferred to
sacrifice the comfortable majority he could have enjoyed
through the MoU for what is bound to be an uncomfortable and
unwieldy coalition. His strategy of luring crossovers,
sometimes with strongarm tactics, has already proven
divisive. We believe this maneuvering is unlikely to lead to
a broadly-based process to prepare a viable devolution and
peace proposal, or otherwise to contribute in the broader
sense to finding a solution to Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict.
BLAKE