MALDIVIAN OPPOSITION PARTIES JOIN FORCES, ENDORSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001666

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS AND SCA/RA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVIAN OPPOSITION PARTIES JOIN FORCES, ENDORSE
A TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT

REF: A. COLOMBO 1588

B. COLOMBO 1532

Classified By: DCM James R. Moore, for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Opposition parties and other political
groups in Maldives have formed a National Unity Alliance
(NUA) and called for a transitional government that would run
Maldives from the time the new constitution comes into effect
until new officials can be elected. Member parties,
including both registered Islamic fundamentalist parties,
held a press conference on December 11 in Colombo to inform
the diplomatic community of their intentions. They say the
purpose of the NUA is to facilitate the implementation of the
new constitution, and ensure that the first Presidential and
Parliamentary elections under the new constitution are free
and fair. Former Attorney General Hassan Saeed told
Ambassador that popular reaction to the alliance has been
enthusiastic. Saeed said President Gayoom may be planning a
cabinet reshuffle to "consolidate his team in the face of
this challenge" from the alliance. The NUA new marks the
first time that the opposition forces in Maldives have come
together and put forward a unified position. Post recommends
that the USG advocate for independent commissioners and
institutions to ensure free and fair elections, but not
become involved in the debate over an interim government.
End Summary.

Opposition Parties Unite
--------------


2. (C) Opposition parties in Maldives last week formed a
National Unity Alliance (NUA) to push forward the reform
process. The Maldivian Democratic Party and Social Liberal
Party, as well as the conservative Islamist parties Adhaalath
and the Islamic Democratic Party (IDP),have joined forces
with several NGOs to call for transitional arrangements.
This interim government would run Maldives from the time the
new constitution comes into effect until new officials can be
elected. Former Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed is NUA's
spokesperson. The alliance has announced that it will
endorse a single presidential candidate, but has not yet
chosen the candidate (or settled on a way to select the
candidate). Member parties held a press conference on
December 11 in Colombo attended by a number of foreign
missions and the local press to inform the diplomatic
community of their intentions.


3. (C) According to the agreement signed by the parties,
the purpose of the NUA is to facilitate the implementation of
the new constitution, and ensure that the first Presidential
and Parliamentary elections under the new constitution are
free and fair. The agreement argues that an interim
government is necessary because the state, upon entry into
force of the new Constitution, must be governed by officials
elected under and in accordance with the new constitution.
Key points of the alliance agreement include:

-The National Unity Government (NUG) should be established
through a chapter on transitional arrangements included in
the new constitution. The interim government would serve
from the time the new constitution goes into effect until the
newly elected president and parliament assume their offices.

-The Constitution should be ratified and brought into force
within one month of the date of its adoption by the People's
Special Majlis.

-Debate within the Special Majlis on transitional
arrangements should be held prior to voting on the
constitutional chapter on the presidency.

-Presidential and parliamentary elections under the new
constitution should be held with the participation of all
registered political parties within 9 months of the date of
entry into force of the new constitution.

-The NUG shall not execute any action or incur any

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expenditure that may have long term effects or consequences.

-The independent commissions established and appointments
made by the NUG will be interim commissions and appointments.
New appointments will be made once elected officials assume
office.

-Officials of the NUG will be disqualified from competing in
the first round of presidential and parliamentary elections.

-Elected members of the People's Special Majlis shall be
designated as the interim parliament. Appointed members will
not be included in the interim parliament.

-The interim parliament will elect, by simple majority, a
person as Head of the NUG. The Head of the NUG will not be
a member of any political party.

Islamic Parties Join In
--------------


4. (C) The National Unity Alliance includes both registered
Islamic parties, the IDP and Adhaalath. MDP Representative
in Colombo Mohamed Naseem told Poloff that the alliance
needed Adhaalath's 25,000 votes and would have to tolerate
the party's conservative influence. He said the MDP and "New
Maldives" group calculated that isolating Adhaalath would be
dangerous and that bringing the party on board would keep it
relatively moderate. Former Attorney General Hassan Saeed
told Ambassador that he has an established relationship with
Adhaalath and was instrumental in convincing the party to
join the alliance. Adhaalath Party President Sheikh Hussain
Rasheed Ahmed told Ambassador at a lunch with alliance
members on December 11 that the party was now ready to begin
engaging with the Embassy. (Note: previously, Adhaalath had
rejected all Embassy attempts to establish a dialogue.) Pol
Chief, who attended the briefing session, found Sheikh AHmed
cordial and welcoming in a side conversation. The Adhaalath
leader, who speaks English only haltingly, made one of the
most eloquent statements (in Dhivehi) at the information
session. He categorically condemned violent extremism,
saying that such movements are un-Maldivian and, in his view,
un-Islamic. He noted that Islam as he understands it is a
tolerant religion. The leader of the Islamic Democratic
Party, former policeman Umar Naseer, was educated in Sri
Lanka, is fluent in English, and comes across as reasonable,
urbane, and charismatic. It is not clear how much popular
support he enjoys, however.

Saeed Optimistic About Alliance
--------------


5. (C) Saeed told Ambassador that popular reaction to the
alliance has been enthusiastic. He said two public meetings
in Male' were well-attended and covered extensively by the
press. He noted that he was flexible on the issue of an
interim government and was more concerned about having
certain institutions in place to ensure a free and fair
election. Those include an independent elections
commissioner, head of the supreme court, prosecutor general,
state media commissioner, police integrity commissioner and
anti-corruption commissioner. He said the President should
propose names for each position to the parliament, which
would then select someone or reject the names and ask for
more. Parliament could be trusted to responsibly select
individuals for these positions, he said.

Government Resisting a Transitional Arrangement...
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director General Ali
Naseer Mohamed told Ambassador on December 4 that progress is
being made on the Constitution and the reform process. He
said 7 out of 13 chapters of the new constitution are
complete. Five more have been debated. The chapter on the
presidency has not yet been debated. He noted that some
members of the opposition would like to discuss the issue of
a transitional government before holding a debate on the

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presidency chapter. Nonetheless, he said, both sides want to
see the constitution finished. He noted that the Government
is determined to hold a presidential election that meets
international standards. The GORM is looking forward to the
UN electoral assessment in January and has invited various
observers to oversee the election. Naseer predicted that
elections would likely be held by September since the
government has to change over by November 8.

...And Wary of the Alliance
--------------


7. (C) Saeed told Ambassador that the President is planning
a cabinet reshuffle to "consolidate his team in the face of
this challenge" from the alliance. Saeed thought that the
President's brother Abdullah Yameen might become Vice
President. Saeed acknowledged, however, that Defense
Minister Ismail Shafeeu, Minister of Agriculture Hussain
Hilmy, and Minister of Youth Waheed Deen all favor political
reforms and are helpful to the reform effort. Gayoom
requested a second meeting with MDP leader Mohamed Nasheed in
early December, but the alliance decided that Nasheed should
decline the invitation until alliance agreement was finalized.


8. (C) Social Liberal Party (SLP) Member of Parliament
Mohamed Nasheed (note: no relation to either the Reform
Minister or the MDP leader, both of whom have identical
names) complained to Pol Chief on December 11 that his party
has faced difficulty registering with the Election
Commissioner. On December 13, after receiving no response to
the fifth attempt to register, SLP leader Ibrahim Ismail
(Ibra) declared the party registered by default. Legal
Reform Minister Mohamed Nasheed told the media on December 13
that Election Commissioner KD Ahmed Manik's failure to
respond to the registration submission within 30 days meant
that the party was now legally registered. New Attorney
General Azima Shukoor, however, has said that SLP must show
identity cards for over a thousand members before the
registration can be processed. The opposition fears that
Azima will try to foil the SLP registration by holding that
members of the ruling Dhivehi Raiyyithunge Party (DRP) are
not allowed to change parties and be counted as SLP members.


9. (C) COMMENT: The NUA marks the first time that the
opposition forces in Maldives have come together and put
forward a unified position. This reflects a certain amount
of growth and maturity within the parties and their
leadership, as well as their common interest in defeating a
six-term incumbent President. The alliance's emergence has
reportedly generated much excitement in Male', with crowds
equaling those in an earlier phase of reform agitation in

2005. There appears to be little ideological content binding
the alliance together, although all seem to share a common
vision of an open, pluralistic political system. The group's
priority for now is maintaining its solidarity. We would not
expect New Maldives members Saeed and Shaheed to deviate soon
from the group's public line demanding transitional
arrangements, even though they are open to something less
sweeping. Embassy believes it would be a mistake for the
U.S. to appear to take sides against Gayoom and the DRP by
publicly endorsing the idea of a transitional government.
Post will advocate the appointment of independent
commissioners and institutions to ensure free and fair
elections, while encouraging the government in private to
re-engage with the opposition on completing the constitution
and getting to elections. We will emphasize that creating a
reasonably level playing field for political competition is
paramount. An election which the Maldivian public perceives
as skewed, resulting in the re-election of an unpopular
incumbent, would probably usher in a period of greater
instability and open the door for more extreme ideologies.
Post intends to pursue actively the new opportunity to engage
with Adhaalath and the IDP, improving ties with conservative
Muslims in Maldives.
BLAKE