Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07COLOMBO1532
2007-11-09 09:12:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

MALDIVES: ENCOURAGING PROGRESS ON CONSTITUTION;

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM MV 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001532 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS AND SCA/RA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: ENCOURAGING PROGRESS ON CONSTITUTION;
ELECTION SEASON IN FULL SWING

REF: A. COLOMBO 1254


B. COLOMBO 1216

Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001532

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS AND SCA/RA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: ENCOURAGING PROGRESS ON CONSTITUTION;
ELECTION SEASON IN FULL SWING

REF: A. COLOMBO 1254


B. COLOMBO 1216

Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On the margins of U.S.-Maldives Friendship
Week from November 4-6, Ambassador and Poloffs met a number
of contacts to discuss the progress of democratic reform in
Maldives. Most contacts reported a renewed sense of
cooperation between the government and opposition and
encouraging progress on drafting Maldives' new constitution.
Male is already buzzing with talk of next year's presidential
election, and almost every party has at least one declared
presidential candidate. End Summary.

Optimism About Finishing the Constitution
--------------


2. (C) Opposition and government contacts alike reported a
renewed spirit of cooperation and encouraging progress on the
drafting of the constitution. Deputy Foreign Minister Dunya
Maumoon, the President's daughter, told Ambassador the
government remains committed to the November 30 deadline and
is working day and night to meet it. She noted that all
parties were cooperating, enabling good progress. Maldivian
Democratic Party (MDP) member of parliament Mariya Didi also
commented to Poloff on the excellent progress made recently
and the new spirit of collaboration within the Special
Majlis, the constituent assembly tasked with the drafting.
Former Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed told Ambassador that
President Gayoom's current enthusiasm for finishing the
constitution stems from his desire to make a good showing at
the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Kampala
(November 23-25) -- where he fears he will be criticized if
he has no progress to demonstrate. Shaheed was somewhat
worried that Gayoom's ardor for reform might dim once he has
the Commonwealth summit behind him, a fear echoed later by
MDP leaders.

Opposition Pushing for a Transitional Arrangement
-------------- --------------


3. (C) One remaining area of contention, however, is the
issue of a transitional arrangement. It remains unclear how

the transition between constitutions will be carried out.
The MDP supports the idea of a multi-party transitional
authority to oversee the presidential election and the
transition to the new constitution. Former Foreign Ministers
Ahmed Shaheed and former Justice Minister Mohamed Jameel,
both of the "New Maldives" group, also favor a transitional
arrangement. Shaheed said South Africa's transitional
authority or Bangladesh's caretaker government offered good
examples. Foreign Ministry officials were reluctant to
comment on the idea of a transitional arrangement, but
implied the government would support whatever arrangement was
laid out in the new constitution. Shaheed told Ambassador
that Gayoom is resistant to the idea of a transitional
authority because he thinks it will "paralyze the
government."

Presidential Candidates Abound
--------------


4. (C) In recent weeks, potential presidential candidates
seem to have been coming out of the woodwork. Deputy Foreign
Minister Maumoon confirmed that the President is interested
in contesting elections as the Dhivehi Raiyyithunge Party
(DRP) candidate, but said his final decision will depend on
the details of the new constitution. Former Attorney General
Hassan Saeed announced his candidacy in late October.
Shaheed told Ambassador on November 6 that Saeed was the
obvious choice among the New Maldives reformers because of
his seniority (he joined the Cabinet earlier than Shaheed and
Jameel) and because he is a "natural leader." Shaheed joked
that he'll just serve as the "chief strategist." The MDP's
President Mohamed Munavvar and Vice-President Ibrahim Hussein
Zaki have both expressed interest in running as the party's
candidate, although there is some (possibly intentional)

COLOMBO 00001532 002 OF 003


ambiguity about whether either has announced a candidacy.
There have been vocal appeals from some supporters of MDP
Chairman Mohamed Nasheed's (a/k/a Anni) asking him to run.
Lesser known parties such as the Islamic Democratic Party and
Social Liberal Party have also declared candidates.


5. (C) Shaheed speculated that the MDP would realize the
risk of splitting the opposition vote and eventually rally
behind Saeed, who Shaheed claims has a better chance of
winning than any of the MDP candidates. Shaheed seemed
confident that Saeed would easily knock Munavvar out of the
running because of his cleaner reputation and greater
popularity in the South. Shaheed also noted that the
President's incumbency will not serve as an advantage.
Gayoom has too much baggage, he said, and the Government's
response to the tsunami showed that the administrative
structure in the islands has atrophied. Moreover, he said,
Gayoom's attempt to use patronage to win support actually
serves to alienate people. The New Maldives group, in
contrast, has significant investor and international backing,
and is now working to build grassroots support, he said.


6. (C) Pol Chief and visiting SCA/INS desk officer met most
of the MDP leadership on November 3, including party Chairman
Nasheed, President Munavvar, Vice President Zaki, MP Mariya
Didi, and others. The party leaders explained that friction
between themselves and the MDP parliamentary delegation had
now largely been sorted out. Our interlocutors were
exuberant over the progress on the draft constitution and
appeared confident that work could be completed, if not by
the November 30 deadline, then by the end of 2007. Nasheed
explained that the MDP was satisfied with the concessions it
had obtained and was anxious to lock them in, the one
sensitive area remaining being the transitional arrangements
it seeks. He said he had been reaching out to leaders of
other political formations, including President Gayoom and
the Islamist parties, to bring the work to completion. The
MDP leaders made it clear they were willing to forget past
differences with the "New Maldives" group in the interest of
forming an alliance, and broadly hinted that they might back
Saeed for President. On November 4, Munavvar called on Saeed
publicly to join the MDP and to contest the primary election
the MDP plans to choose its candidate.

Preparations Begin for Election Monitoring
--------------


7. (C) The Foreign Ministry confirmed that a UN mission
will arrive in Maldives in December to assess Maldives'
election support needs. The Commonwealth has also offered to
provide support. Ambassador encouraged the GORM to provide
as much advance notice on the election date as possible so
that monitoring organizations have time to organize
assistance.

Democracy Discussion Draws a Crowd
--------------


8. (C) The Maldivian public's interest in the reform
process was evident in the impressive turnout for the panel
discussion on Democratic Reform in Maldives, hosted by
Ambassador as part of Friendship Week. Panelists, including
Ambassador and representatives from government, opposition
and civil society, spoke about the reform process. The
audience was given time to question the panelists on their
views. Over 100 people (a large audience in the Maldivian
context) turned out for the event, and the audience was
engaged and eager to ask questions. One opposition MP told
Poloff that this was the first discussion or debate of its
kind in Maldives and that it provided a healthy learning
experience for the public.


9. (C) COMMENT: The excitement over elections and
proliferation of candidates in some ways seems premature.
Even after the constitution is drafted, new election laws
will have to be established before an election can be held,
presumably before the current President's term expires in
November 2008. The MDP appears to have passed through a

COLOMBO 00001532 003 OF 003


bruising phase of internal debate over strategy and
personalities. For the moment, Nasheed (Anni) seems to have
prevailed with the argument that the principal objective is
to ensure the retirement of President Gayoom, and that the
best way to accomplish this is to try to rally a broad front
of political forces, including some of the Islamists and
reform elements of the ruling DRP, behind Hassan Saeed's
candidacy. This is, in fact, the first time that we have
seen the main opposition MDP energized and upbeat about the
prospects for genuine political pluralism in the country. It
is encouraging to see so much enthusiasm for reform. Embassy
contacts expressed appreciation for the events and activities
associated with Friendship Week, and for what they termed
"growing U.S. interest in Maldives."
BLAKE