SRI LANKA: ATTITUDE SURVEY REVEALS SINHALESE VIEWS

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: ATTITUDE SURVEY REVEALS SINHALESE VIEWS
ON THE CONFLICT


Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A Sri Lankan think tank, the Centre for
Policy Alternatives, recently released a study intended to
provide a measure of public confidence in the peace process
and public opinion on resolving the conflict. This attitude
survey provides valuable insight into the views of the
majority Sinhalese community on the conflict and highlights
some of the major differences in views among the various
ethnic communities. All three communities agree that peace
can be achieved through talks and that the Government of Sri
Lanka (GSL) is committed to talks. However, they also all
agree that it is likely war will resume, and most Sinhalese
support the GSL's increased emphasis on military action. The
three ethnic groups are divided on whether the GSL has been
doing a good job of protecting human rights and on whether
Norway and the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) have been
effective at facilitating and monitoring the peace process.
These findings make clear why the Sinhalese-dominated GSL has
pursued a military-based strategy with little fear of
disapproval by its constituency in the majority community.
End summary.


2. (U) The Centre for Policy Alternatives, a leading Sri
Lankan think tank, recently released its Peace Confidence
Index for November 2006. The study, based on polling of
Sinhalese, Muslims and Up-Country Tamils (brought to Sri
Lanka during British Colonial rule to work on tea
plantations),is intended to provide a measure of public
confidence in the peace process and public opinion on
resolving the conflict. The study does not include the views
of Sri Lanka's Tamil population in the North and East. The
data was collected between October 23 and November 6, 2006.
This poll provides valuable insight into the views of the
majority Sinhalese community on the conflict and helps
explain some of President Mahinda Rajapaksa's recent
decisions and actions. The survey also highlights some of
the major differences in views among the various ethnic
groups.

Broad Support for Peace Talks
--------------


3. (U) According to the poll, all three communities agree
that peace can be achieved through talks. A majority of
Sinhalese say the Government of Sri Lanka (GSL) is committed
to finding peace through talks, and disagree that the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) shares that
commitment. The Muslim and Up-Country Tamil communities
agree that the GSL is committed to peace talks, but the
Up-Country Tamils also think the LTTE is committed to talks.
Muslims are divided on the LTTE's commitment. A plurality of
Sinhalese think that the LTTE is willing to participate in
talks as a way to buy more time, while the other communities
think they are committed to the peace process and are
responding to international pressure.

Support for a Facilitator, but not Norway
--------------


4. (U) Just over 38 percent of Sinhalese think that only the
GSL and the LTTE should be involved in talks, but another 32
percent think an international third party is essential and
would have a positive impact on the peace process. However,
two thirds of the Sinhalese disapprove of Norway's continued
role as a facilitator. Twenty-one percent would like to see
the U.S. as facilitator and another 19 percent say India
would be the most suitable. Large majorities of the
Up-Country Tamils and Muslims support Norway's efforts - but
still would prefer India as facilitator. All three
communities think that India's involvement in the peace
process would have a positive impact. They also agree there
should be separate Muslim representation at the talks. A
plurality of Sinhalese think it important to include the

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Karuna faction (an LTTE breakaway group now working with the
GSL) in future talks.

Most Anticipate War
--------------


5. (U) A majority of all three communities believe it is
likely that war will resume. Most Sinhalese support GSL
expansion of its military action "including even to all out
war in order weaken the LTTE." Up-Country Tamils and Muslims
do not support ramping up military action. A majority of
Sinhalese stated that the Cease-Fire Agreement (CFA) has not
benefited the average citizen, while most Up-Country Tamils
and Muslims do see the CFA as beneficial.

Sinhalese Suspicious of the SLMM
--------------


6. (U) The Sinhalese community is divided on whether a
monitoring mission is essential for the CFA to succeed.
Muslim and Up-Country Tamil communities think a monitoring
mission is essential. Most Sinhalese think the SLMM has not
been impartial in its monitoring of the cease-fire, while
most Up-Country Tamils and Muslims think they have been
impartial.

Support for UNP-SLFP Cooperation
--------------


7. (U) A majority of all three communities believe that the
consensus between the United National Party (UNP) and Sri
Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) should have a positive impact on
the peace process and the country at large. (Note: The
sampling predates the current government move to get UNP
members to "cross over," thereby endangering the MOU.)

Sinhalese Mostly Indifferent on the De-Merger
--------------


8. (U) A plurality of Sinhalese have no opinion on the
de-merger of the North and Eastern Provinces, while most
Muslims oppose it and the Up-Country Tamils are divided.
However, when asked specifically about a recent Supreme Court
decision invalidating the merger, a plurality of Sinhalese
thought the court's decision would have a positive impact on
the peace process. A majority of Muslims and the
overwhelming majority of Up-Country Tamils thought it would
have a negative impact.

GSL: Passing Grade from Sinhalese on Human Rights
-------------- --------------


9. (U) A majority of Sinhalese think that the GSL has done
enough to protect human rights, while the Up-Country Tamils
think the GSL has not done enough and Muslims are divided on
the issue. A majority of Sinhalese and Up-Country Tamils
have no opinion on the President's call for a national
commission to investigate human rights abuses, while most
Muslims support it.


10. (C) COMMENT: The majority Sinhalese support GSL war
efforts, even while claiming to believe in the peace process.
Distrust of the LTTE probably leads the Sinhalese to
conclude that talks alone are not enough. The Sinhalese
public's view that the CFA has not been helpful makes it easy
for the GSL to violate the CFA with little or no domestic
criticism. The distrust of Norway and the SLMM and approval
of the GSL's human rights record suggest that most Sinhalese
believe what the GSL is telling them about the conflict and
about the GSL's actions in the North and East. The Sinhalese
majority is likely to distrust any facilitator that
criticizes the GSL. This public confidence in the
government's version of events means that the GSL faces
little risk of losing support from its base in pursuing

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continued and ever-expanded military options.
BLAKE