MALDIVES: RESIGNED MINISTERS CONTINUE REFORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001254

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS AND SCA/RA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: RESIGNED MINISTERS CONTINUE REFORM
EFFORTS; NEW FM PLEDGES SUPPORT FOR REFORM

REF: A. COLOMBO 1216

B. COLOMBO 1186

C. COLOMBO 1166

D. COLOMBO 1161

E. COLOMBO 1087

Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed,
Justice Minister Mohamed Jameel, and Attorney General Hassan
Saeed, the key advocates for reform within the Government
until their resignations last month (refs d and e),are
reportedly considering joining the opposition Maldivian
Democratic Party (MDP). In a meeting on September 5,
Shaheed, Jameel, and Saeed assured Ambassador that they will
continue to actively pursue democratic progress from the
opposition. Saeed and Shaheed recommended an independent
assessment of Maldives' reform progress and a conference on
democracy with broad multi-party participation. Shaheed
noted that the August 18 referendum has significantly altered
the political landscape in Maldives. The opposition has been
discredited by its own claim that the referendum would be a
vote of confidence on Gayoom, and the political fortunes of
Gayoom's half-brother Yameen were dashed when the
parliamentary system lost. On September 6, Ambassador met
with Foreign Minister Shahid, who said the Maldivian
government is ready to move forward with its reform program.
End Summary.


2. (C) Former Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed, Justice
Minister Mohamed Jameel, and Attorney General Hassan Saeed,
the key advocates for reform within the Government until
their resignations last month (refs d and e),are reportedly
considering joining the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party
(MDP). Local press and MDP contacts tell us that Shaheed,
Saeed, and Jameel, as well as Agriculture Minister Hussain
Hilmy, are currently engaged in discussions with MDP
Chairperson Mohamed Nasheed over what positions they would
get in a future MDP government. (Note: Hilmy reportedly
plans to resign from the Government in the near future.) MDP
contacts tell us there is some resistance within the party to
accepting the four, but most feel it would be good for the
party. Saeed has popular support within Addu Atoll and
Jameel can carry voters in Fua Mulaku Island. Shaheed,
although generally unpopular with Maldivians because of his
father's reputation for corruption, is well-liked within the
international community.


3. (C) On September 5, Ambassador met with Shaheed, Jameel,
and Saeed who assured him that they will continue to actively
pursue democratic progress from the opposition. They also
informed Ambassador of an upcoming UN assessment on what
Maldives needs to do to prepare for its presidential election
in 2008. They reported that the UN is waiting for the
Government to set a date for the assessment team's visit and
asked that the U.S. urge the Government to set this date
soon. Ambassador promised the Embassy would do so.


4. (C) Saeed noted President Gayoom's argument that he
needs one more term in office to finish implementing the
reform agenda. However, Saeed thought the contrary: as long
as Gayoom remains in office, the reformers will get weaker
and the hardliners will get stronger. Saeed recommended an
independent assessment of Maldives' reform progress, an
"audit" of what has been accomplished, what remains to be
done, and why it has not yet been done. For his part, he
said, he is preparing a document to explain to the
international community what reforms remain and how they can
be achieved in the next year.


5. (C) Shaheed and Saeed suggested other steps toward
reform, including selecting a more independent election
commissioner and encouraging the Government to adhere to its
promise to participate in Commonwealth-sponsored talks with
the opposition after the referendum. They also plan to
arrange a conference on democracy with broad multi-party
participation.


COLOMBO 00001254 002 OF 002



6. (C) Shaheed noted that the August 18 referendum has
significantly altered the political landscape in Maldives.
He said the opposition has dug itself into a hole by
characterizing the referendum as a vote of confidence on
Gayoom. Now that the results are in, and Gayoom's preferred
system of government won, the opposition finds itself
discredited. Shaheed said Gayoom sees a better chance for
his own re-election now that the MDP has "self-destructed."
Shaheed also noted that Gayoom does not see the referendum
results as a mandate for reform, but rather a mandate for
him. He is unlikely to implement his Roadmap to Reform, said
Shaheed, because once he does, his ability to influence the
outcome of the next Presidential election will be limited.


7. (C) Shaheed explained that the referendum destroyed the
political fortunes of Gayoom's half-brother Yameen, who was
leading a breakaway faction of the ruling party. Yameen
aspired to become Prime Minister under a parliamentary
system, he said, in large part because he knows he could
never generate enough popular support to win a direct
presidential election. With these hopes dashed, he will now
look to get back into politics by rejoining Gayoom's
government. Shaheed commented that the return of the hardline
Yameen to the Government would further delay the reform
process.


8. (C) On September 6, Ambassador met with new Foreign
Minister Abdullah Shahid and urged that the Maldivian
Government implement the President's Roadmap for Reform and
schedule a date for the UN assessment team so preparations
for the 2008 election can begin. Shahid said the Maldivian
government is ready to move forward with its reform program.
He noted that the Human Rights Commission, despite its
reputation for siding with the opposition, had endorsed the
referendum results. He acknowledged the slow pace of the
Special Majlis on drafting the new constitution and blamed a
continual lack of quorum. He said the President had
personally called MDP Chairperson Nasheed to urge the MDP to
cooperate on finishing the constitution.


9. (C) COMMENT: The addition of the "New Maldives" group to
the MDP could lend needed credibility to the MDP and
reinvigorate the party. A key question will be where the
three former ministers fit in the MDP leadership structure
and who would serve as the MDP candidate for President if
elections are held. Regardless of whether they join the MDP,
the resigned reformers seem sincere about remaining engaged
in the reform process, and are being proactive in generating
new ideas to achieve progress. Many observers remain worried
about the future of the reform movement following their
resignation, however. The new foreign minister, while
lacking the reformist credentials of his predecessor, is so
far saying all the right things.
BLAKE