MALDIVES: PRESIDENT GAYOOM SAYS REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001186

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS AND SCA/RA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KWWW ETRD EAID MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: PRESIDENT GAYOOM SAYS REFERENDUM
"GENERALLY FREE AND FAIR"; OPPOSITION SAYS NUMBERS
IMPOSSIBLY HIGH; VPP FOR MALDIVES LAUNCHED

REF: A. COLOMBO 1161

B. COLOMBO 1166

C. COLOMBO 1184

Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b, d).


1. (C) Summary: Maldives President Gayoom told Ambassador
August 28 that the country's August 18 referendum had been
"well-organized," "in general, free and fair," and had
produced an outcome of 62 percent in favor of a "U.S.-style"
presidential system. Opposition Maldives Democratic Party
leaders, however, insisted to the Ambassador that the
government's vote counts totaled more ballots than could
possibly have been cast. Ambassador urged them not to give
up on the democratic process, and to use lessons from the
referendum to insist on more accountable voting procedures in
the presidential elections that will likely occur next year.
Ambassador urged both the President and the opposition to
make early plans to invite the international community to
monitor what would be Maldives' first-ever presidential
elections.


2. (U) Summary, cont'd: While in Maldives, the Ambassador
also launched Embassy Colombo's Virtual Presence Post
dedicated to Maldives; met U.S. and foreign companies
exhibiting U.S. products at the American Pavilion within
Maldives' largest annual trade show; advocated with the
President and others for a proposed $93 million investment
using U.S. windpower technology; and broke ground for two
USAID water desalination projects as part of tsunami
reconstruction on two islands (septel). End summary.

PRESIDENT SAYS REFERENDUM FAIR, REFORM TO CONTINUE
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Ambassador Blake called on Maldives President Gayoom
at the Presidential Palace in Male' August 28. Gayoom,
appearing relaxed and jovial and accompanied by Minister for
Presidential Affairs Mohamed Hussain and Deputy Foreign
Minister Dunya Maumoon (who is also Gayoom's daughter),told
Ambassador that he expected the results of the August 18
national referendum on system of government to be confirmed
later that day by the Election Commission. The president
expected the official results to indicate that 62 percent of
Maldivians supported retaining the country's executive
presidency, rather than switching to a purely parliamentary
system of government. (Note: The eleven-member committee of
the Special Majlis still has not certified the results.)
Gayoom told Ambassador he supported the presidential system
because it would limit an elected executive's tenure to a
maximum of two five-year terms, create separation of
executive and legislative power, and give people a say in
electing their national leader.


4. (C) The Ambassador noted that the opposition alleged there
had been irregularities in the referendum (ref A). "They
would," replied the president. He countered that the
opposition was itself responsible for irregularities like
voter intimidation and attacking a minister's car. Overall,
Gayoom contended, the election was "well-organized" and "in
general, free and fair." He urged the opposition to accept
the results in order not to bog down the reform process,
which would continue despite the recent resignations of the
three main reformists in the cabinet (refs A and B; ref C
reports Ambassador's discussion with the former Foreign
Minister, Justice Minister, and Attorney General). The draft
constitution, Gayoom explained, would now incorporate clauses
for a presidential system, and would be presented to the
Special Majlis soon, with a goal of adopting it by November

30. Gayoom hoped the opposition would support the new
constitution, which would increase transparency,
accountability, and democracy -- "it's what they want," he
said.

WILL "THINK ABOUT" OBSERVERS FOR 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Following adoption of the constitution, the parliament
would proceed with drafting an election law so that a

COLOMBO 00001186 002 OF 002


presidential election could be held by about September or
October 2008, according to Gayoom. In response to the
Ambassador's question, Gayoom said he would run for president
because his party had elected him its leader and he was
therefore required to be its candidate. The Ambassador said
it would be important to have international observers monitor
the presidential election, to help avoid a contested outcome
like that surrounding the recent referendum. He urged the
president to invite, with plenty of lead time, foreign
governments and civil society organizations to send
observers. The Ambassador also recommended that the
government take seriously the opposition's allegations of
irregularities in the referendum, so as to improve procedures
for the presidential election. Gayoom thanked the Ambassador
for the suggestions, which he said "we will think about."

OPPOSITION CERTAIN NUMBERS WERE ALTERED; PESSIMISTIC ABOUT
DEMOCRATIC PROSPECTS
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Following his meeting with Gayoom, the Ambassador
called on opposition Maldives Democratic Party leaders, who
were frustrated and angry in the belief that the government
must have falsified the tallies in the referendum. Party
leader Nasheed explained that MDP inquiries showed that the
voter rolls included over 10,000 deceased persons and 15,000
persons outside the country. This made the government's
claim that 151,000 out of 189,000 eligible voters had voted
nearly impossible. Were the discrepancies sufficient to have
affected the result of the referendum? the Ambassador asked.
"Too close to call," Nasheed said. (Note: The UNDP Deputy
Resident Representative and her human rights officer later
told Ambassador that they thought the outcome of the
referendum probably had not been affected by vote count
irregularities. Former Foreign Minister Shaheed also agreed
with this assessment.)


7. (C) The Ambassador urged the opposition to continue
working within the political system to effect reform. "You
can do better from inside, rather than letting the process
proceed with you on the outside." He advised them to use
what they had learned with the referendum to demand fairer
voting and counting procedures in the eventual presidential
election. Nasheed said the party had not made a final
decision on its future participation in the system, but that
"right now I don't see a bright future, I don't see
democracy, I don't see amending the constitution, and I don't
see free and fair elections" in the future. Acknowledging
Nasheed's frustration, the Ambassador promised "we will work
with you and others to hold the government to international
standards" in what would be the country's first-ever election
of a leader. The United States and others in the
international community would seek to dedicate more observers
to such a major election, provided there was sufficient
advance notice, he added.


8. (C) Comment: The relatively small international contingent
that observed the referendum was in no position to judge
whether the voter rolls, voting procedures, or the vote count
were accurate or fair. The government's continued delay in
announcing final results adds to the impression that
something was not right. This makes it all the more
important to have a strong international monitoring presence
for a presidential election in 2008, which at this point
appears to be the likely outcome of the referendum. With the
Maldives following an unpredictable constitutional and
democratic process, post will focus on pressing the
government to ensure sufficient advance notice to mobilize a
credible international monitoring effort. Ref C also
describes the offer by the UN Resident Representative in
Male' to organize a UN assessment mission of what steps need
to be taken to ensure a free and fair election and
constructive participation by international observers.
BLAKE