KAREN GROUPS SAY FIGHTING WON'T REACH REFUGEE CAMPS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L CHIANG MAI 000070

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/18/2017
TAGS: PREL PINS PREF TH BM
SUBJECT: KAREN GROUPS SAY FIGHTING WON'T REACH REFUGEE CAMPS IN
THAILAND

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 69, B. CHIANG MAI 66

CLASSIFIED BY: John Spykerman, Political Officer, CG Chiang Mai,
Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)



1. (C/NF) Fighting along the Thai-Burma border is unlikely to
spill into the Mae La refugee camp in Thailand's Tak province,
according to the ethnic factions involved in recent clashes.
Karen groups on both sides of the conflict share an interest in
protecting the camp and other Karen settlements on the Thai side
of the border, which they see as sources of support.


2. (C/NF) The latest fighting erupted almost two weeks ago after
a breakaway faction of the Karen National Union (KNU) sided with
Burma's State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and its
ceasefire ally, the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) (ref
B). Those forces overran KNU positions in Burma's Karen State,
opposite Thailand's Tak province, including one location near
the Mae La refugee camp, home to more than 40,000 refugees. The
fighting in the border areas subsided before the SE Asian New
Year celebrations in Burma and Thailand this past week, although
small skirmishes were reported further inside Karen State (see
ref A).


3. (C/NF) Sources with the KNU and the Free Burma Rangers, an
NGO that assists ethnic resistance groups in Burma with
humanitarian operations, said that the positions lost in the
recent fighting were on flat land and difficult to defend. KNU
member Isaac Po likened the recent SPDC/DKBA advances to
aggravating a beehive, echoing similar KNU sources who have
suggested that their troops may now pursue guerilla tactics to
retake positions or defend their remaining territory. Po,
however, cautioned that there may be further attacks against the
KNU on the border in the near future.


4. (C/NF) Free Burma Rangers sources told PolOff the DKBA now
held most border territory south of the Mae La camp, due in part
to the defection from the KNU of former 7th Brigade leader Htain
Maung. These sources, however, said that KNU positions north of
Mae La remained well protected and they did not see any danger
to the Mae La camp, despite rumors to the contrary among the
refugees living there.


5. (C/NF) Meanwhile, contacts with Htain Maung's breakaway
"Peace Council" faction say they and their new allies have no
plans to target refugee camps or other Karen groups living in
Thailand, which they say are home to many of their supporters.
If there are attacks against Karen living in Thailand, they say,
they will be by KNU forces looking to frame Htain Maung, the
SPDC, or the DKBA. One Peace Council source described last
week's military skirmishes as Htain Maung re-asserting his
command of the 7th Brigade's territory.

CAMP