MILITARY SOURCES EXPRESS CONFIDENCE IN POLITICAL CONTROL

UNCLAS CHIANG MAI 000068

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS TH
SUBJECT: MILITARY SOURCES EXPRESS CONFIDENCE IN POLITICAL CONTROL



1. (SBU) Summary. While keeping a close watch for any Thai
Rak Thai (TRT) resurgence, military officers in the northern
region are confident that the new constitution will pass in a
public referendum and the TRT party will be disbanded. Former
northern army head Gen Saprang Kalayanamitra, now Assistant
Secretary General of the Council for National Security (CNS),is

SIPDIS
likely out of the running for Army Commander as a result of the
same tough military style that won him admiration when he was
directing his remarks against then-Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra. End summary


2. (SBU) During a visit to Chiang Mai for a counter-narcotics
meeting April 3-4, Defense Minister Gen Boonrot Somthat and 3rd
Army chief Lt Gen Jiradet Kotcharat told a senior Office of
Narcotics Control Board (ONCB) official that Thaksin and TRT
pose little threat and that the political situation is under
control. Much more worrisome, they said, is the situation in
the south, which they believe will need at least five years to
set straight.


3. (SBU) The two generals expressed confidence that the new
constitution will pass and that subsequent elections will not
bring a return of Thaksin or his nominees. Boonrot told the
ONCB official that TRT is certain to be disbanded around the end
of May by a Constitutional Court ruling and that the Assets
Scrutiny Committee will finish off Thaksin.


4. (SBU) The ONCB source noted that the latest army reshuffles
in the north, including command changes in the 32nd, 33rd
Military Circles and the Military Districts of Chiang Rai,
Phayao and Uttaradit, signaled the army's determination to
ensure the right political outcome in future elections by
closely monitoring the actions and movements of key TRT
supporters. As an additional measure to keep the political
situation under control, Boonrot and Jiradet pointed to the
draft military act, said to be copied from the U.S. Homeland
Security Act, which gives the Internal Security Operations
Command (ISOC) oversight of all government intelligence work.


5. (SBU) Although Gen Saprang Kalayanamitra, who helped
instigate the coup from his post in Phitsanulok, predicted
during a visit to Chiang Mai earlier this year that he would be
made Army Commander, sources say this is now unlikely. Promoted
to Assistant Army Commander after the coup and subsequently
appointed chairman of the board of two major corporations -
Telephones of Thailand (TOT) and Airports of Thailand (AOT) --
Saprang has since tarnished his reputation with an expensive
junket to Europe and a series of hawkish statements. The
once-popular general now has trouble on both sides: anti-coup
groups charge Saprang with abuse of power while his military
colleagues worry that the outspoken general could exacerbate
problems in the south and widen the internal rift within the
armed forces.

CAMP