SHAN MILITIA LEADER REACHES OUT TO INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000046

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM SNAR TH BM
SUBJECT: SHAN MILITIA LEADER REACHES OUT TO INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

CHIANG MAI 00000046 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: John Spykerman, Con/Pol Officer, Consulate
General Chiang Mai, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)



1. (S/NF) SUMMARY. Leaders of the Restoration Council of Shan
State (RCSS) and Shan State Army-South (SSA-S) have invited
Consulate General staff and other members of the international
community in northern Thailand to visit Shan villages on the
Thai-Burma border, seeking to draw attention to human rights
abuses in Burma's Shan State and boost the legitimacy of their
pro-autonomy organizations. ConGen Chiang Mai and Embassy
Bangkok have declined to meet because of these leaders' ties to
drug trafficking operations and uncertainty about their current
relations with other Shan political groups and the Royal Thai
Army. Local sources familiar with the Shan community note these
invitations could be the result of political or military
desperation. End Summary.


2. (S/NF) Yawd Muang, "secretary of foreign affairs" for the
RCSS, an organization that serves as the de facto political wing
of the SSA-S, contacted Post in early March to invite PolOff to
visit Shan villages along the Thai-Burma border opposite Mae
Hong Son province. Yawd Muang said the invitation came from
SSA-S leader Yawd Serk, who wanted to discuss a variety of
issues with the U.S. government, including human rights abuses,
drug trafficking, the ongoing SSA-S military campaign against
Burma's State Peace and Development (SPDC) forces, and the role
of his organization in the international dialogue on Burma's
future. Yawd Muang claimed to have secured the blessing of RTA
officers to host foreign diplomats in SSA-S territory, located
mostly in shrinking pockets along the Thai-Burma border. After
PolOff declined to travel to the border area, Yawd Muang
requested Post host a meeting with Yawd Serk and other RCSS
members.


3. (S/NF) Taking into account Yawd Serk's involvement in drug
trafficking (he succeeded infamous drug lord Khun Sa as the
leader of the armed Shan resistance) and the uneven relationship
the RCSS has with other Shan groups, ConGen and Embassy Bangkok
declined the meeting requests. Although Yawd Muang, also known
as Yordtai or Phillips, said Yawd Serk had led his organization
away from supporting themselves with drug-trafficking profits,
multiple sources - SSA-S supporters included - strongly dispute
this claim, with one source also noting that Yawd Muang himself
has been the target of drug smuggling investigations by Thai
police.


4. (S/NF) Yawd Serk likely sees himself as having much to gain
from engaging diplomats, whether or not he faces an imminent
attack from the Burmese Army. One RTA Pha Muang Task Force
colonel familiar with the SSA-S said he did not see any signs
that the SPDC or its United Wa State Army (UWSA) allies would
mount increased attacks on the SSA-S positions in the near
future. Although the SSA-S has suffered occasional setbacks
against the SPDC and UWSA in recent years, its remaining
positions - especially those along the Thai border - are
well-protected by terrain and other factors. The only recent
clashes involving the SSA-S have occurred 25 km deep inside
Burmese territory, leaving border areas relatively calm and
allowing Yawd Serk room to plan political maneuvers, RTA sources
said. However, other sources have observed Burmese military
units strengthening their positions near SSA-S locations in
recent weeks, lending more credibility to theories that the
SSA-S anticipates a military confrontation.


5. (S/NF) A representative of the Free Burma Rangers, a relief
organization that coordinates closely with Burmese ethnic
groups, added that the SSA-S fears a Burmese Army dry season
offensive similar in brutality to that faced by the Karen
National Liberation Army and residents of Karen State last year.
He said Yawd Serk, worried about diminishing options and
military resources, could be looking to attract international
support.

End of the Line, Or Looking for a New Direction?
--------------


6. (S/NF) Those familiar with Shan politics say Yawd Serk feels
increasingly isolated from other Shan groups, such as the
exile-dominated Interim Shan Government and various Shan human
rights groups active in northern Thailand that have built ties
with the international community over the past several years.
Meanwhile, Yawd Serk's RCSS and SSA-S find themselves largely
trapped inside Shan State and shut off from the outside world,
watching other groups obtain international development
assistance.


7. (S/NF) SPDC successes against many of the ethnic resistance

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groups, along with the change of government in Thailand, have
brought the future of the RTG's relationship with Yawd Serk into
question. A source with the RTG's National Intelligence Agency
said the NIA and RTA still value having SSA-S forces maintain a
buffer zone on the border and occasionally turn to them for help
with counter-narcotics efforts (even if the SSA-S has its own
suspected narcotics networks). Yet it is unclear how far RTA
officials are willing to let Yawd Serk reach out to the larger
Shan population in Thailand to attract the support he needs to
maintain legitimacy as a leader.


8. (S/NF) According to RCSS's Yawd Muang, RTA officials had
blessed the organization's proposed meetings with diplomats and
have issued identification cards to certain RCSS and SSA-S
members to travel in northern Thailand. A local source reported
that the Japanese Consul General in Chiang Mai initially
accepted a similar offer to visit Doi Taileng village in
SSA-S-controlled territory in February. However, the RTA blocked
the Consul General from reaching the border, suggesting that the
RTA was less enthusiastic than SSA-S and RCSS members wanted to
admit or realized. (Note: We are unable to confirm this account,
as the Japanese Consul General departed post soon after this
reported trip. End Note.)


9. (C) With these higher-level outreach efforts stymied, Yawd
Serk continues to seek smaller-scale support. Members of the
Shan community in northern Thailand - of which the NIA estimates
there are 200,000 - say they receive pressure to send money back
across the border to the SSA-S, especially for those with
relatives serving in the resistance. In addition, ethnic Shan in
Chiang Mai report that Yawd Serk's supporters periodically
collect donations during festivals and other ceremonies at
temples attended by Shan.

Comment
--------------


10. (S/NF) We remain uncertain exactly why Yawd Serk chose now
to push for closer contact with the outside world. It may be
just an ambitious idea from the RCSS "foreign minister" or
perhaps a sign of desperation in the face of mounting enemy
forces. Sources familiar with Yawd Serk doubt he would stick
around for a final military defeat and would likely accept a
payoff similar to the one that prompted Khun Sa's departure 10
years ago. However, any BA offensive comparable to last year's
campaign in Karen State raises concern for vulnerable Shan
villagers caught between the SPDC's brutal oppression and the
RTG's refusal to recognize their ethnic cousin Shan as refugees.


11. (S/NF) The NIA estimates as many as 300 Shan per day cross
illegally into Thailand. The prospect of even more spilling over
the border is likely enough motivation for the RTG to continue
to value Yawd Serk and his SSA-S as a buffer against the Burmese
Army and to provide relative stability for Shan villages in
SSA-S territory. But Yawd Serk likely realizes that toleration
of his organization by the RTG does not equal credibility,
especially in the eyes of the international community. With the
international community paying more attention to Burma and other
Shan groups gaining legitimacy, the SSA-S probably feels some
desperation to have the outside world ignore the darker side of
their operations and treat them as a valid representative of the
Shan cause in order for them to survive. End Comment.
CAMP