PLANS FOR SALWEEN DAMS MOVE AHEAD DESPITE OPPOSITION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000004

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ENRG SENV PGOV PHUM BM CH TH
SUBJECT: PLANS FOR SALWEEN DAMS MOVE AHEAD DESPITE OPPOSITION

REF: A. A) (06) BANGKOK 7422 (REFORM BUT NO BIG CHANGES: THAILAND'S NEW MINISTER OF ENERGY SPEAKS)


B. B) (06) CHIANG MAI 66 (DAMMED BY THE GENERALS: REPORT CRITICIZES SALWEEN DAM PROJECTS)

C. C) (06) CHIANG MAI 51 (SALWEEN DAM PROPOSALS GENERATE ALARM)

CHIANG MAI 00000004 001.2 OF 002



1. (U) Summary: NGOs, academics and former senators opposed to
the building of dams along the Salween River predict the project
will bring dire human rights, environmental and cultural
disruption to the region. However, the post-coup Thai regime is
sticking to the course set by the government of former Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra of investing in hydropower from
Burma to slake some of Thailand's energy needs. Thailand's new
Minister of Energy reportedly discussed the project with the
Burmese government on Dec. 6 (ref a),following the Electricity
Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) May 2006 agreement with
China's Sinohydro for joint investment in Burma's Karen State.
End summary


2. (U) The Salween, the last major undammed river in Southeast
Asia, runs 2,800 km from Tibet through China and into Burma; it
forms the Thai-Burma border for a 118-kilometer stretch near Mae
Sariang in Mae Hong Son province. While the Thai government has
refused to release to the public several agreements it has made
with Burma to build dams on the Salween, a number of Thai,
Burmese, and Chinese NGOs are actively seeking information and
publicizing concerns about the planned projects. A Nov. 23-24
conference on "Mekong-Salween: Peoples, Water and the Golden
Land of Suvarnbhumi/Southeast Asia" brought together 500 Thai
teachers, researchers, NGO workers and government officials in
Chiang Mai. Participants also visited an area in Mae Hong Son
likely to be flooded by the Hat Gyi dam.


3. (U) Researchers at the November conference warned that
hydropower dams on the Salween would adversely affect Karen,
Karenni, and other ethnic and tribal groups as a result of
forced labor used in dam construction and flooding once the dams
are completed. Charm Tong, a Shan activist and co-author of the
2002 "License to Rape" expose of Burma Army abuses, predicted
that more Burma Army troops would be deployed to protect the
construction site at Ta Sang in Shan State, where a Thai
company, MDX, has already sent heavy equipment and set up camps.
These disruptions within Burma would increase the number of
migrants flowing into Thailand, she warned. Karen Rivers Watch
and the Southeast Asia Rivers Network (SEARIN) estimated the Hat
Gyi dam would drive 30,000-80,000 people out of Burma while the
Karenni Development Research Group estimated that the Wei Gyi
dam would displace about 30,000 people.

--Thai agreement with Burma --


4. (U) The Thai and Burmese Ministries of Energy signed a
memorandum of understanding (MOU) in May 2005 to conduct a
feasibility study for five dams on the Salween (ref c). The two
that appear to be furthest along in planning are to be built at
Hat Gyi in Karen State with Chinese investment and Ta Sang in
Shan State. Another three Salween dams are reportedly planned
at Wei Gyi, Dar Gwin and Ywathit in Karenni State with an
additional one on the Tenasserim River. NGOs claim that these
six dams would have a maximum capacity of about 16,000 MW per
year, which, if true, would satisfy half of Thailand's estimated
energy needs in 2012. Others consider this figure far too
high.


5. (U) Although anti-dam activists were initially encouraged
by an Oct. 9 announcement from new Minister of Energy Piyasvasti
Amranand that he would shelve plans to build a network of
hydropower dams on the Salween river system in Myanmar,
Piyasvasti reportedly resumed discussions of the Hat Gyi project
while accompanying Prime Minister Surayud to Burma Dec. 6.


6. (SBU) EGAT Environmental Division Director Rewat
Suwanakitti told the Consulate Jan. 8 that the state enterprise
plans to complete its feasibility survey of the Hat Gyi site in
late 2007 and then make a final decision on whether to build the
dam, which he said would have a capacity of 600-1000 MW per
year. (According to EGAT forecasts, Thailand is expected to
need 23,000 MW in 2007.) He said that EGAT's survey team is
protected by Burmese military forces in an area controlled by
the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA),described by Embassy
Rangoon as the Burmese regime's proxy army.


7. (SBU) Rewat explained that the 2005 MOU between the Thai
and Burmese governments "was signed at a time when EGAT was in
trouble with NGO movements against dams in Thailand and EGAT
desperately needed new power sources." In May 2006, EGAT
signed an agreement with China's Sinohydro for joint investment
if the project proves feasible. Neither MOU has been made
available to the public.

-- NGO efforts --


CHIANG MAI 00000004 002.2 OF 002



8. (U) Frustrated by the refusal of EGAT and the Ministry of
Energy to release either of the two MOUs concerning the dams,
Thai NGOs, academics, and several former senators have
publicized their concerns through a series of actions and
conferences, including the November conference in Chiang Mai
held under the auspices of the Foundation for the Promotion of
Social Sciences and Humanities Textbooks Project (FPSHTP).


9. (U) Key academics in the FPSHTP, which began in 1978 with
Rockefeller Foundation funding, include Prof. Saneh Jamarik,
chair of the National Human Rights National Human Rights
Commission, and Dr. Charnvit Kasetsiri, President of Thammasat
University 1994-1995. Both were involved in a 1970s movement to
oppose a dam in northeast Thailand, commemorated in the
underground film "Tongpan". The alliance also includes several
activist former senators, including Kraisak Choonhavan, Jermsak
Pinthong and Tuanjai Deetes, who were instrumental in extracting
information about the planned dams from secretive EGAT.


10. (U) Other active opponents to the dam projects include
SEARIN, led by coordinator Pianporn Deetes, as well as Salween
Watch, the Karenni Development Research and Karen River Watch, a
network of six Karen organizations that work together to protect
natural resources and human rights. These NGOs organized a
gathering of 400 Karen at the Salween in March 2006, which they
dubbed "World Anti Dam Day", arranged field trips to the border,
and staged a Nov. 30 demonstration in front of the World Bank
office in Bangkok. Working with civil society groups in China,
they have also petitioned the Thai and Chinese governments to
stop the dams.


11. (U) These efforts have not deterred EGAT and the Ministry of
Energy from pursuing hydropower generation plans in Burma and
Pianporn is not optimistic that SEARIN will be able to force
EGAT to conduct an environmental impact assessment.
Nevertheless, "getting EGAT out into the light would be a
success for us," Pianporn told Consulate staff, explaining that
her organization is pushing for greater transparency by EGAT in
both Thailand and Burma.

--Comment -


12. (U) At least some of the hydropower dams planned for the
Salween River are likely to be built despite NGO opposition and
the expected negative impact on border areas. Although
activists initially hoped that Thaksin's ouster would bring a
slowing of Thai investment in Burma, the reality is that both
governments have too much to gain from hydropower development on
the Salween. Thailand needs the energy supply and Burma needs
the hard currency the projects will bring; damming the Salween
would satisfy both.
CAMP