KNU RIFT WIDENS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CHIANG MAI 000022

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/5/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS TH BM
SUBJECT: KNU RIFT WIDENS

REF: A. A) RANGOON 08


B. B) (06) RANGOON 1828

CLASSIFIED BY: Bea Camp, Consul General, U.S. Consulate General
Chiang Mai, U.S. Dept. of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b)


1. (U) Summary: A growing split among leaders of the Karen
resistance to the Burmese military government has broken into
the open in the wake of the Dec. 26 funeral of long-time Karen
National Union (KNU) leader Bo Mya. Thai observers are
concerned that the dispute will further weaken the KNU, with
possible negative effects on Thai border security. End summary

2. (U) Although 79-year old KNU Gen. Bo Mya was ailing for
several years, his charisma and years at the helm helped prevent
long-standing disagreements among various factions within the
KNU and Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) from boiling over.
The large and politically diverse turnout for his funeral
masked a widening rift in the Karen resistance, as ethnic Karen
villagers, exiled political activists, officers from the Burma
Army and the pro-regime Democratic Buddhist Karen Army, and
representatives of Burma's State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC) and Thai military intelligence gathered to pay their
respects.

3. (U) Within days of the funeral, KNLA 7th Brigade Commander
Brig Gen Htain Maung broke ranks with the KNU Central Committee
by leading a delegation to Rangoon Jan. 3-11. The KNU
responded on Jan. 30 by dismissing Htain Maung, leading the
general and some KNU military officials to form a splinter group
the next day under the title of "Peace Council". The KNU on
Feb. 4 issued a statement decrying Htain Maung's actions and
forwarded a statement by Bo Mya's widow denying allegations that
she had joined the Peace Council.

4. (C) The KNU earlier expressed to the Thai military its
disapproval of the 7th Brigade's action in a Jan. 17 letter from
KNU General Secretary Mahn Sha La Phan to RTA Commander Gen
Sonthi Boonyaratkalin. In the letter, provided to the Consulate
by a contact from the Thai National Intelligence Agency (NIA),
the KNU executive committee confirmed that the KNU would not
move on ceasefire talks without RTA approval.


5. (SBU) Both National Council of the Union of Burma (NCUB)
foreign affairs committee member Nyo Ohn Myint and an NIA
contact denied reports that the Thai military is pushing the KNU
to deal with the regime. Thai field security units that have
monitored developments since Bo Mya's death believe the SPDC
does not genuinely want a ceasefire with the KNU. Nyo Ohn
Myint warned that an agreement between the regime and the 7th
Brigade "might threaten Thai security," explaining that "the
Thais can't monitor the road from Mae Sariang to Mae Sot; the
KNU is their eyes." At the same time he acknowledged that Thai
business interests in the timber on land controlled by the 7th
Brigade could lead some Thai officials to favor a ceasefire.


6. (SBU) Comment: Disagreements between the KNU and the 7th
Brigade have been brewing for more than a year, ripe for
exploitation by the Burmese regime. An NIA contact described
the SPDC tactic of using economic and business incentives as
"bait" to entice splits in the KNU, as it has successfully done
with other armed ethnic minority groups in Burma. If so, the
tactic has succeeded; KNLA Gen. Isaac Po contacted the Consulate
over the weekend to say "we have been wedged by the SPDC."
Embassy Rangoon notes that with the 7th Brigade controlling
nearly half of the KNLA's soldiers and the 5th Brigade
reportedly sympathetic to the 7th Brigade, a permanent rupture
would seriously weaken the Karen resistance.

CAMP