NORTHERN VILLAGERS EXPECT RTG TO TRY TO LIMIT PPP SUCCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000185

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM MOPS TH
SUBJECT: NORTHERN VILLAGERS EXPECT RTG TO TRY TO LIMIT PPP SUCCESS

REF: CHIANG MAI 182 (THAKSIN LOYALISTS POISED TO RECAPTURE NORTH)

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CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin Rosier, Economic Officer, Pol/Econ, CG
Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



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SUMMARY
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1. (C) While candidates prepare their campaigns in the run-up to
the December 23 election, government officials are gearing up to
closely monitor political activity in northern Thailand, a
stronghold for the former Thai Rak Thai party. Politicians,
academics, and village leaders across the north expect that
local representatives of the Ministry of Interior, the Election
Commission of Thailand, and the military will strictly manage
this election, keeping the People's Power Party (PPP),in
particular, under the microscope. Despite efforts to tackle
vote-buying, officials expect candidates' spending for votes to
increase this December, while villagers argue that personal
connections to candidates will be the primary motivation for
voters. Though voter support for the new constitution was
divided in the region, one opinion rings true across the
northern provinces: the military government's main objective is
to prevent a PPP victory. End Summary.

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MISSION: FREE AND FAIR ELECTION; TARGET: "THOSE TRT BASTARDS"
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2. (C) Though hoping for a free and fair election on December
23, village leaders and political analysts across Thailand's
north believe the Ministry of Interior (MOI),Election
Commission of Thailand (ECT),and the military will use various
means to prevent the People's Power Party (PPP) from being in a
position to head the new civilian government. The PPP is
campaigning as the true successor to ousted Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra's now-banned Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party. In a
recent trip across the upper and lower north of Thailand, local
officials told EconOff and EconLES that the MOI and ECT - with
help from the military - are preparing to crack down on
vote-buying and other illegal campaigning methods. Despite
their best efforts, however, analysts believe the parties will
have to spend even more for votes this year than in years past.


3. (C) Our contacts told us that they expect the military
government will target the PPP in its enforcement of campaign
regulations, many of which are new. Association of Kamnan
(local government leaders) and Village Heads of Northern
Thailand President Inwan Bangnguen said that to make the PPP
lose, the government must stop vote-buying. "Those Thai Rak
Thai bastards" bought their victories in previous elections, he
said, so either the government will have to crack down on
vote-buying or other parties will have to pay more. Inwan
asserted that the government and the military would try to block
a PPP victory. He said that the Kamnan of the 17 northern
provinces would be meeting soon with Deputy Prime Minister
General (ret) Sonthi Boonyaratglin, but could not say what the
meeting would be about (Comment: We expect Sonthi to use the
meeting to advise the Kamnan on strategies to limit public
support for the PPP).


4. (C) Chiang Rai PPP candidate Ittidet Kaewlaung said, "The
military plays politics itself now and will be the real players
in this election." He said that the military conducts meetings
with villagers and monitors movements of PPP candidates.
Villagers reported the presence of military personnel in the
provinces we visited (Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Sukhothai, and
Kamphaengphet),but did not report any action by them. As for
the ECT, Ittidet said that it has grown too powerful and has
expanded constituencies as a means of reshuffling and,
therefore, weakening the TRT/PPP base. He also said that the
ECT's new regulations give unfair preference to small parties in
order to bar large parties (read, PPP) from winning seats.

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FAMILIAR FACES AND MONEY BRING VOTERS TO THE BOOTH
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5. (C) Village leaders across the north agree that the primary
factor for voters' picks in the election will be the familiarity
of the candidates. Chiang Rai Rajabhat University lecturer
Udorn Wongtumtip said personal connections with party candidates
will determine how voters make their choice. In Chiang Rai,
because most of these familiar faces are PPP members, analysts
expect at least five of the province's eight MP seats to go to
PPP members. Many expect the PPP to win all eight seats (as TRT
did in the 2005 and 2001 elections). Conversely, in Sukhothai
-- swept by TRT candidates in the last two elections -- village
leaders predict all four seats will go to the Matchima
Thippathai party because the former TRT members have switched

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allegiance to that party and are expected to carry their voters
with them.


6. (C) Aside from personal connections, vote-buying will be
another motivation for voters this December. The PPP's Ittidet
said that with reshuffled constituencies, vote-buying will
intensify with competing parties such as Chart Thai having to
front more money than in prior elections. Kamphaengphet ECT
member Somchai Ponjhon estimated that each candidate would need
to spend 40-50 million Thai baht (approximately 1.3 million USD)
for a chance to win. In previous elections, candidates spent an
estimated 14-15 million baht (approximately 440,000 USD).
Somchai also expects the methods of vote-buying to be more
discrete this time since the parties will be under close watch
by the government. For example, parties are considering using
cell phone credit as a substitute for cash, he said.

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IN THE UPPER NORTH, A VOTE FOR PPP IS A VOTE FOR THAKSIN
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7. (SBU) The eight provinces of Thailand's "Upper North"
continue to be a major stronghold for the pro-Thaksin camp.
Village leaders in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai provinces said that
Upper North voters remain loyal to the former TRT MPs and will
support them under whatever party banner they choose, in this
case the PPP. Villagers from these provinces have fond memories
of the Thaksin administration, emphasizing that under Thaksin
their rural regions were given unprecedented attention and money
from the central government in Bangkok. One village leader told
us, "In the past, villagers had to wait for services from
government officials; but during the Thaksin government, for the
first time, government officials were serving villagers."

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IN THE LOWER NORTH, THAKSIN'S LEGACY LESS STRONG
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8. (SBU) In the lower northern provinces of Sukhothai and
Kamphaengphet, villagers praised Thaksin, the TRT, and their
policy achievements; however, they said his popularity in their
villages will not always translate into electoral support for
the PPP. In Sukhothai, former TRT MPs have jumped ship to
Matchima Thippathai (per para 5 above). In Kamphaengphet, most
MP seats are expected to go to the PPP because of the former TRT
candidates who are running; however, one candidate who is
running with the Democrat Party is expected to gain a seat
because of his personal relationships in the province.
(Comment: We also note that all nine "Lower North" provinces
supported the RTG-backed draft constitution in the August 19
referendum. In contrast, seven of the eight "Upper North"
provinces rejected it).

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Across northern Thailand, villagers, PPP candidates, and
even government officials admit that the objective of the
military in this election is to limit PPP success and prevent it
from heading the next government. We expect that political
parties, the media, and NGOs observing the election will be
watching for signs of military interference in the electoral
process. We will continue to work with these actors to monitor
any possible interference during the campaigns and election.
Nonetheless, most observers still believe the PPP will dominate
the northern region as TRT did in the last two elections (see
Reftel). Although personal connections and vote-buying may
alter the voting patterns of locals on December 23, support for
Thaksin and his populist policies has not dwindled up north.
MORROW