PROXY POLITICS AT PLAY IN CHIANG MAI MAYORAL RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000114

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV TH
SUBJECT: PROXY POLITICS AT PLAY IN CHIANG MAI MAYORAL RACE

REF: A. A) BANGKOK 2994 - TRIBUNAL DISSOLVES THAI RAK THAI, STRIPS EXECUTIVES OF POLITICAL RIGHTS


B. B) (06)CHIANG MAI 60 - ATTACK ON DEMOCRAT PARTY RALLY ESCALATES VIOLENC

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CLASSIFIED BY: Beatrice Camp, Consul General, Chiang Mai, Dept.
of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: Although seven candidates are on the ballot
for Chiang Mai's mayoral election on Sunday, the ostensibly
non-partisan race is boiling down to how well Thai Rak Thai
(TRT) proxies will do against opposition from the military and
other anti-Thaksin elements. The outcome and control of City
Hall are likely to influence future parliamentary races in the
district and could signal how capable the Council for National
Security (CNS) will be in organizing votes for the
constitutional referendum and MP elections. Summary


2. (C) With eight months left in his term, Chiang Mai Mayor
Boonlert Buranupakorn resigned May 4 and called a new election,
surprising and getting a jump on his opponents. In addition to
being the first to blanket the town with his image, Boonlert
started with high name recognition and the advantageous draw of
the number "1" position on the ballot. As the incumbent and
member of a large and well-heeled business and political family,
Boonlert has built up political capital through targeted use of
municipal funds during his six years in office. However, his
identification with the Thai Rak Thai party through his brother
Pakorn -- former mayor, former MP and one of the 111 banned TRT
executive board members (ref a) -- puts him beyond the pale for
the military. CNS chairman Gen Sonthi Boonyaratklin reportedly
spread the word during a June 9 visit to Chiang Mai that
Boonlert is not the right candidate.

--- One Rival Down ---


3. (C) Boonlert gained additional traction when the TRT-era
Provincial Election Commission disqualified his leading rival,
Duantemduang Na Chiengmai. The national Election Commission on
June 20 denied her appeal of the disqualification on residency
issues. While this ended Duantemduang's race for mayor, she is
expected to compete for MP on the Democrat ticket. (historical
digression: In the complex chronicle of Chiang Mai politics,
this incident will likely be an interesting footnote:
Duantemduang lost in the Feb. 2005 parliamentary election to
Boonlert's brother Pakorn while her mother was defeated in the
same election by another TRT candidate. Her father serves as
the elected head of the Provincial Administrative Organization.
Although deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and TRT are
now categorized as "old power", once upon a time they were seen
as the upstarts challenging the old families of the region,
including the Na Chiengmai descendents of the former ruling
princes.)

--- All in the Family ---


4. (C) Former TRT MP Pakorn Buranupakorn, whose family is
already represented in the race by brother Boonlert, has yet
another proxy in the form of his wife, Yawaret Kanchanakul.
Yawaret's role reportedly is to be available to substitute for
her brother-in-law if anything happens to disqualify him and at
the same time to prepare her to stand in for her banned husband
in a future MP election.


5. (C) Yawaret is one of four lesser known names recognized by
all as nominees for the "real" candidates, ready to step in if
needed. With Duantemduang now out of the picture, Boonlert,
former deputy mayor Pornchai Chitnawasathian and wealthy
businessman Udom Suwitsakdanon remain as the three serious
contenders. Pornchai, a young businessman with hotel interests,
broke with his former mentor Boonlert in recent months and
appears to be the choice of the military. Udom, a former
Senator, is the richest of the bunch as the self-made owner of
the Nim See Seng transport company and a money-lending business.
All three candidates have spent lavishly, covering the town with
signboards, posters, banners, leaflets, and car caravans; all
three are expected to use creative accounting to show campaign
costs within the legal limit.


6. (SBU) In addition to the successful challenge to
Duantemduang's residency qualifications, Boonlert's camp also
filed complaints against his other two viable opponents. These
cases, against Pornchai for false statement of educational
qualifications and Udom for making illegal promises to voters,
are still pending with the local election commission.

--- Friends and Foes ---


7. (C) With Boonlert and Pakorn's combined tenure in City Hall
spanning nine years, the Buranupakorn family has had time to
consolidate both its popular base and its business interests.
(Boonlert owns the new Sofitel hotel; another brother owns the
Empress Hotel.) In the course of this, however, they have
alienated other political groups, further aggravated after

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Pakorn instigated an attack on a Democrat party rally before the
April 2006 election (ref b). The family also earned the
animosity of the Crown Prince over a decade ago, thanks to their
sister's one-time connection with the now-exiled former consort
of the prince.


8. (C) With senior military officers reportedly providing hints
to subordinates on how to cast a proper vote, the military
appears to be waging a proxy war against Boonlert.
Duantemduang, who holds the rank of captain in the army, was
initially the soldiers' choice because of her previous campaign
against Pakorn and the current friendly ties between the CNS and
the Democrat Party. As her disqualification looked increasingly
likely, however, Pornchai became the military's best bet.


9. (C) Comment. Victory in Sunday's municipal voting will not
only determine who controls Thailand's second most important
city but also impact local MP races in the next national
elections. The military would like to block "old-power" proxies
from gaining this important piece of northern turf; their
success or failure on Sunday may suggest how far the CNS has to
go in mobilizing support outside of Bangkok for the draft
constitution and parliamentary candidates.
CAMP