Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07CHENNAI83
2007-02-01 10:24:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:  

ANDHRA PRADESH: MAOIST REVERSES ... BUT WILL THEY LAST?

Tags:  PGOV PINR PINS PTER PHUM ASEC IN 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000083 

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SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PTER PHUM ASEC IN
SUBJECT: ANDHRA PRADESH: MAOIST REVERSES ... BUT WILL THEY LAST?

REF: A) 06 CHENNAI 2145 B) 06 CHENNAI 1705

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000083

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SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PTER PHUM ASEC IN
SUBJECT: ANDHRA PRADESH: MAOIST REVERSES ... BUT WILL THEY LAST?

REF: A) 06 CHENNAI 2145 B) 06 CHENNAI 1705


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With effect from mid-January 2007, The Communist
Party of India Maoist (CPI-Maoist),also known as Naxalites, says it
has suspended major activities in Andhra Pradesh (AP). The move
comes after several months of Maoist setbacks in the state,
including killings of several party leaders in police encounters and
seizures of arms and ammunitions from Maoist camps. Media reports
further claim Maoist leaders are planning to transform the banned
grouping into a non-violent, mainstream people's organization to
oppose the policies of AP's ruling Congress government. Despite
these developments, the recent seizures of Maoist arms and documents
also point to the possibility that the Maoists continue to plan to
raise a guerilla army. While Andhra Pradesh, for long the part of
the Naxalite heartland, saw a downturn of Maoist violence in 2006,
some level of clashes are likely to continue between the rebels and
state police.

UPING THE ANTE ON ANTI-MAOIST OPERATIONS
--------------


2. (SBU) In recent years, the Andhra Pradesh (AP) police have
enjoyed considerable success against the Maoists, successfully
pinpointing the movements of Maoist dalams (armed squads) and
thereby dramatically reducing incidents of Maoist violence. The
number of civilians killed by Maoists (as estimated by the police)
dropped from 211 in 2005 to 42 in 2006. In 2005 approximately 601
Maoists surrendered, about 269 did so in 2006. Combing operations
and encounter killings resulted in about 124 Maoists killed by
police in 2005, as compared to an estimated 110 in 2006. The
aborted peace negotiations of May 2004, followed by the January 2005
announcement by the Maoists that they would withdraw from peace
talks gave impetus to Congress Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy
to use a two-pronged approach to tackle the Maoists. Reddy declared
the strategy would include implementation of development programs in
Maoist-affected districts to wean away potential recruits, combined
with strict law and order enforcement to check violence. The later

has already shown demonstrable results and enabled the police, with
the help of intelligence inputs from across the state and country,
to fight the rebels. Weakening of the Maoist cadre is especially
credited to the intensive combing operations in the Nallamalla
forest area spanning five districts by the Greyhounds, an elite
security team devoted to anti-Maoist operations. Post's
interlocutors also credit state law enforcement with avoiding large
scale violent situations through preemptive actions to force
surrenders and to kill alleged Maoist attackers.


3. (U) In recent months, seizures of arms and arrests of important
Maoist leaders have further weakened the party cadre. Last
December, Anantapur district police seized a large number of rockets
and mines from four Maoist camps. Earlier, in October 2006 in
Vijayawada city, police recovered landmines which supposedly were
being taken to the rebel hideouts in the forest areas. Last
September, AP police conducted a massive seizure of hundreds of
Chennai-made rocket shells and dozens of rocket launchers from the
warehouses of a transport company in the Mahabubnagar and Prakasam
districts (ref A). Working with the Tamil Nadu police to undercover
the arms supplying network, AP state police on October 17 arrested a
Maoist couple wanted for their involvement in inter-state weapons
manufacturing and transport. In this major blow to the Maoists,
Raghu (alias Srinivasa Reddy and alias Madhu) and his wife,
Sudharani (alias Sridevi),surrendered to AP police in Warangal
district.


4. (U) Last November, police killed top Maoist leader Obluesh, a
state committee member, and eight other Maoists in the Gopavaram
forests of Kadapa district. Obulesh was reportedly in line to take
over as the next CPI-Maoist state committee secretary. Also slain
in the encounter were his wife Prasanthi, who was Guntur district
secretary, and Mallikarjuna, Anantapur district secretary. Later,

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on November 24, another top Maoist leader was killed in East
Godavari district near the Vishakhapatnam border. Continuing with
last year's successful arrests of Maoist guerillas, police
apprehension a person in Khammam led to a bust of two weapon making
units in Rourkela (Orissa) and Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh) and the
arrest of 13 Maoists rebels on January 11. An earlier arrest on
January 9 of two important CPI-Maoist Central (national) Committee
members in Bhadrachalam district in Andhra Pradesh was a major
breakthrough and provided substantial information about the Maoist
insurgency in India.

MAOIST TRANSFORMATION - MYTH OR REALITY?
--------------


5. (SBU) Human Rights Forum lawyer K. Balagopal confirmed media

CHENNAI 00000083 002 OF 002


reports that the CPI-Maoist leadership is considering new strategies
in an attempt to strengthen their following in Andhra Pradesh. He
explains that "unlike Chhattisgarh where the focus was on mass
killings, Andhra Pradesh violence, so far, was targeted but not
powerful enough." Balagopal previously filed cases for the Maoists
against the state, and he is still in close contact with the group's
leadership. He says the leadership told him that due to their
weakened base, they are discussing non-violent strategies to
transform the banned organization into a mainstream political party.
While the Maoist movement traditionally has claimed to seek an end
to the exploitation of poor and landless farmers, the new grouping
would go further by raising issues of a separate Telangana area,
tribal displacement at project sites, and land acquisition for
special economic zones (SEZs). Even Balagopal, however, questions
whether or not the Maoists' truly plan to give up violence as a
tactic.


6. (SBU) Andhra Pradesh Police Intelligence Chief Arvinda Rao
confirms that the rebels are on the run and growing weaker, but he
disagrees with the view they plan to reform into a normal political
party. Rather, Rao maintains that confiscated of CPI-Maoist
documents reveal plans to create a guerilla army. Referencing the
recent seizures of arms and ammunition, Rao emphasizes that "in
fact, (Maoist) attainment of self-sufficiency by manufacturing and
owning arms and ammunitions is a cause of concern for us." The
state police also have reasons to believe the Maoists are recruiting
new cadre for their underground movement. Nevertheless, Rao told us
that Maoist attacks on vital installations or business
establishments AP are unlikely in the near future given the weakened
condition of the party.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: Andhra Pradesh's strict, sometimes heavy handed
law-and-order approach has destabilized the Maoist insurgency and
forced their activities to move into the bordering states of
Chhatisgarh and Orissa, as well as Jharkhand. AP police estimate
that the overall strength of the Maoist armed cadres in the state
has been reduced from the previous 1,000 to about 450. This is
quite significant given the fact that Maoist violence in AP has
claimed more than 6,000 lives since 1967. As the Maoists struggle
to revive their membership -- whether by advocating violence or a
civic approach -- the Greyhounds and state police intend to remain
vigilant to counter and comprehensively root out their presence.
Given the state's history of cyclical Naxalite violence followed by
law enforcement gaining the upper hand, the counter-insurgency and
violence are likely to continue - though at a lower level compared
to years past.

HOPPER