BJP SET TO LEAD ITS FIRST GOVERNMENT IN SOUTH INDIA

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000671

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL IN
SUBJECT: BJP SET TO LEAD ITS FIRST GOVERNMENT IN SOUTH INDIA

REF: A) CHENNAI 662, B) CHENNAI 629, C) CHENNAI 620, D) CHENNAI 611


1. (SBU) Summary: The Union Cabinet decided on November 8 to end
"President's Rule" in the South Indian state of Karnataka, paving
the way for the BJP to lead a governing coalition -- the first time
that the BJP has led a government in a southern state. The BJP will
join the JD(S) to govern, in a reconstruction of the coalition that
collapsed in October. Various factions within the JD(S) are now
scrambling for cabinet seats, while Karnataka's Congress Party
leaders fume about their national leadership's decision to allow the
BJP-JD(S) coalition back into power. Few observers expect this
version of the BJP-JD(S) coalition to last more than six months, but
even if it lasts longer, political in-fighting are likely to absorb
most of the government's energy, preventing it from focusing on
much-needed improvements to Bangalore's crumbling infrastructure.
End summary.

Karnataka legislators parade to end president's rule
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2. (U) The Union Cabinet moved on November 8 to revoke "President's
Rule" in Karnataka, which had put the administration of the state
into the hands of the Congress Party-appointed governor following
the collapse in October of the state's governing BJP-JD(S)
coalition. The Cabinet's decision followed a November 6 political
stunt that saw 125 of Karnataka's BJP and JD(S) legislators parade
before President Patel in Delhi to demonstrate that the coalition
had more than the 113 seats necessary to form a majority in
Karnataka's legislature.


3. (SBU) Karnataka Governor Rameshwar Thakur's office confirmed to
us that the governor had sent a letter inviting the BJP to form a
government, suggesting November 12 as the date for a swearing-in
ceremony. B.S. Yedyurappa, the Deputy Chief Minister in the
government that collapsed in October, will become the new Chief
Minister (CM). When sworn in, he will become the first BJP member
to take a top office in South India.

Karnataka Congress leaders unhappy
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4. (SBU) Karnataka's Congress politicians are not happy with the
decision made by the party's national leadership. One former
state-level minister told us that the BJP would now consolidate its
position in the state. He said that he feared that the BJP would be
able to make enough money while in power to give Congress a "tough
fight" in the next election, even if the new coalition lasts only a
few months. A former state CM agreed, adding that the BJP would now
start filling key positions in the state bureaucracy, many of which
are currently vacant, with its supporters.

All not well within the JD(S)
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5. (U) Meanwhile, factional fighting with the JD(S) leadership
continues. Most party members seem to support the coalition with
the BJP while fearing that the saffron party may poach voters from
the Lingayat caste who currently support the JD(S). (Yedyurappa is
a Lingayat.) Two of the JD(S)'s most influential figures, party
chief Deve Gowda, and his son, former CM Kumaraswamy, have yet to
comment publicly on the revocation of "President's Rule," suggesting
their less-than-enthusiastic support for the reinvigoration of their
party's coalition with the BJP.


6. (SBU) A dissident JD(S) legislator gave us an additional reason
for the lack of comment from the party's most visible figures: a
family dispute. He told us that a fight between Kumarasamy and his
older brother (Revana, also a former state minister) prevented their
family from offering any statement of support to the "new"
coalition. Both brothers, he said, want to become the Deputy CM in
the BJP-led cabinet, which is causing fissures within the JD(S).
Most of the party's legislators, he claimed, support Kumaraswamy's
candidacy, but Deve Gowda prefers Revana.

Comment
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7. (SBU) While most observers seem to believe that disputes within
the coalition will prevent it from surviving longer than six months,
Yedyurappa has proven himself to be an adroit politician who may
well be able to hold the fragile coalition together for longer than
that. What seems clear, however, is that managing competing demands
and political intrigue within the coalition will take up much of his
time and energy, preventing him from focusing on critical issues
like improving Bangalore's crumbling infrastructure.

FRY