BJP CLAIMS A NEW MAJORITY IN BANGALORE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000662

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL IN
SUBJECT: BJP CLAIMS A NEW MAJORITY IN BANGALORE

REF: A) CHENNAI 629, B) CHENNAI 620 C) CHENNAI 611


1. (SBU) Summary: A newly reformed BJP-JD(S) coalition now claims
to have a majority in the South Indian state of Karnataka's
legislature. It has demanded that the governor re-activate the
state's legislative assembly and ask the coalition to form a
government. The Congress-appointed governor has been administering
the state since the declaration of "President's Rule" following the
collapse of the previous BJP-JD(S) coalition on October 8 (reftels).
He appears in no hurry to relinquish control and apparently has no
legal requirement to heed the new coalition's demands. The
BJP-JD(S) will attempt to use public pressure to convince the
governor. The Congress Party may well allow the new coalition to
rule Karnataka again, fully expecting that the two parties will soon
be at each other's throats again, allowing Congress to benefit from
early elections that will follow another government collapse. End
summary.

A majority parade for the governor
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2. (U) A newly reconstituted BJP-JD(S) coalition paraded 129 members
of Karnataka's legislature in front of Governor Rameshwar Thakur's
office on October 29 to demonstrate that it has more than the 113
votes necessary to create a majority. The new coalition elected BJP
member B.S. Yeddyurappa, who served as Deputy Chief Minister in the
BJP-JD(S) coalition that collapsed in early October, as its leader.
If he becomes Chief Minister (CM),it would be the first time that
the BJP has held the top job in any state in South India. (The new
coalition chief was known as Yeddiyurappa until October 11, when he
reportedly changed the spelling of his name on the advice of
astrologers.)

Dissent in the JD(S) ranks
--------------


3. (SBU) Not all JD(S) members are happy with the new arrangement.
Dissident JD(S) legislator M.P. Prakash, flew to New Delhi the
previous week to discuss with Congress leaders a possible
JD(S)-Congress coalition. A senior Congress state leader told us
that a deal to make Prakash the new Chief Minister (CM) with
Congress's support was "more or less agreed upon" when it was spiked
by JD(S) former CM Kumaraswamy. According to this source,
Kumaraswamy convinced party chief Deve Gowda (conveniently,
Kumaraswamy's father) to re-ally with the BJP to ensure that a
member of Deve Gowda's immediate family (another son is also a
prominent politician) remains near the CM's post in Karnataka.
Prakash's deal, this Congress leader told us, would have left Deve
Gowda and his progeny out in the cold.


4. (U) Prakash claimed to have enough support from his fellow
Lingayat caste members within the JD(S) to prevent the new BJP-JD(S)
coalition from creating a majority, but only three JD(S) members
joined Prakash in avoiding the show of support in front of the
governor's office. Prakash reportedly told the governor that the
new BJP-JD(S) tie-up was "illegal and unethical," claiming that Deve
Gowda had joined back with the BJP without consulting the party's
membership.

Governor in the driver's seat
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5. (SBU) The governor apparently has no legal requirement to heed
the new coalition's demands. The BJP's point man on Karnataka told
us that "everything now rests in the hands of the governor," saying
that even though the BJP and JD(S) may claim to have a majority, the
governor is in possession of a letter from the BJP, written as the
former government collapsed, that calls for early elections. He
admitted that the governor could make himself look foolish if he
allowed the parties to try again to form a government and they
failed. He also told us that the decision about whether or not to
allow the BJP to form a new coalition would be made by Congress
leaders in New Delhi. He speculated that Sonia Gandhi may make the
decision soon after her return from China on October 30.

Congress may want a BJP-JD(S) coalition
--------------


6. (SBU) The senior Congress state leader told us that Congress is
leaning towards allowing the BJP and JD(S) to take the reins of
power again. He said that Congress expects that their
re-constituted alliance will soon founder, discrediting both parties
completely and forcing an election that Congress will win.

Comment
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7. (SBU) The short-term outlook for the BJP and JD(S) forming a
coalition looks good, but it's not a sure thing. Although he may
have no legal obligation to end President's Rule, it would be
awkward for the governor to ignore the apparent majority now
mustered by the two parties. If Congress decides to keep the
governor in charge, there's apparently little the BJP can do beyond
issuing public rebukes. The Congress Party will, however, pay a
political price for what will be seen as undermining the democratic
process if it keeps the legislature suspended under President's Rule
despite the coalition proving it has a clear majority. Such a
decision by the party could also be challenged in the courts. There
are precedents where courts have censured governors and the Federal
Government for preventing a coalition formation from proving its
majority on the floor of the legislature.

KAPLAN