TAMIL NADU BJP EAGER FOR ALLIANCE WITH JAYALALITHAA'S

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SUBJECT: TAMIL NADU BJP EAGER FOR ALLIANCE WITH JAYALALITHAA'S
AIADMK

REFS: A) CHENNAI 0605 B) CHENNAI 0477


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: India's major political parties, the Congress
and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),are minor players in the southern
Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Two regional parties - the DMK and the
rival AIADMK - dominate the state, leaving Congress with
approximately 10-15 percent and BJP with 5-7 percent of the vote.
With the Congress party closely allied with Tamil Nadu's ruling DMK
party, the state's BJP is looking to Tamil Nadu's other major
regional party - the AIADMK led by J. Jayalalithaa - as a potential
partner in future parliamentary elections. Jayalalithaa, however,
is notoriously mercurial and it is difficult to predict how she will
react to the BJP's efforts to woo her. END SUMMARY.

CONGRESS AND BJP WEAK IN THE SOUTH; NEED REGIONAL ALLIES
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2. (SBU) Tamil Nadu's political scene is dominated by the DMK and
AIADMK. These "Dravidian" parties, which appeal to speakers of the
Tamil language, have alternated in power in Tamil Nadu since 1967.
With the Dravidian parties firmly in control, the major national
parties Congress and BJP are relegated to being niche players. The
consensus view of political analysts is that BJP usually garners
only five to seven percent of the vote and Congress ten to fifteen
percent in a given election. Karti Chidambaram, a young Tamil Nadu
Congress party leader (and son of India's Finance Minister P.
Chidambaram),told post "Congress is not a political party in Tamil
Nadu, just a small vote bank."


3. (SBU) Dravidian party dominance in Tamil Nadu means that the
national parties need allies to be competitive in the state. The
DMK is a member of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance.
The parties remain close despite the DMK's lukewarm support of
Congress on the U.S.-India civil nuclear deal and the DMK's
disappointment with Congress's equivocation on the "Ram Sethu" issue
(ref A). DMK member of parliament Kanimozhi (who is the daughter of
the DMK's octogenarian leader Karunanidhi) recently told post that
"the DMK is with the Congress party" despite their recent
disagreements. The Congress-DMK relationship is strong, which means
the BJP has no choice but to look to Jayalalitha's AIADMK.
(COMMENT: Although the political terrain appears relatively set
with the DMK joining Congress and BJP looking to the AIADMK, it
bears noting that opportunism rather than ideology is the guiding
force for the Dravidian parties when considering which national
party they should join with. The DMK, whose leaders who now say
they are ideologically opposed to the BJP, were part of the BJP-led
National Democratic Alliance government from 1999 to 2004. The
AIADMK has also allied with both the BJP and Congress. END
COMMENT.)

DMK WITH CONGRESS, BJP NEEDS JAYALALITHAA'S AIADMK
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4. (SBU) In an October 26 meeting with BJP State President L.
Ganesan and National Executive Member Sukumaran Nambiar, the BJP
leaders pined for an alliance with the AIADMK. They were honest in
their assessment that BJP in Tamil Nadu "is a very small" party and
they need to ally with one of the Dravidian majors. Ganesan and
Nambiar said they have "ruled out" the possibility of partnering
with the DMK, whose aggressively atheistic leader Karunanidhi
insulted Hindu religious sentiment during the Ram Sethu matter.
They emphasized the compatibility of BJP and AIADMK saying
Jayalalithaa is a natural ally for the BJP, being ideologically
"akin to us." Ganesan fondly recalled that it was Jayalalithaa who
ended his party's political isolation in 1998 by being the first
secular regional party to join hands with the BJP.


5. (SBU) Ganesan and Nambiar said a BJP-AIADMK alliance would be a
mutually helpful arrangement. The BJP, they said, would benefit
from the AIADMK's voter base in Tamil Nadu which would allow them to
elect members of parliament who support a BJP-led coalition. In
return, an alliance with BJP would give the regional AIADMK an
association with a credible national leader to project as its Prime
Minister candidate. They also feel that the AIADMK and the BJP
together could reap electoral benefits from the polarization brought
about by the Ram Sethu issue.

MERCURIAL JAYALALITHAA NOT RUSHING TO DECIDE
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6. (SBU) Ganesan said that although a BJP-AIADMK tie-up is in the
pipeline, official consultations between the parties have not begun
yet. He said BJP is "informally in contact with friends in the
other parties" but acknowledged that the actual formation of
alliances would take place much closer to the elections.
Jayalalithaa, for her part, remains typically inscrutable. She
helped found the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA) in June

2007. The UNPA, also known as the Third Front, was created as an
alternative to the BJP and the Congress. But she has since
distanced herself from the UNPA. In August, AIADMK legislators did

not vote with their UNPA colleagues in India's presidential
election, instead voting for the BJP candidate (ref B).


7. (SBU) The vote for the BJP presidential candidate, along with
Jayalalithaa's support for the BJP position in the Ram Sethu
controversy, fueled speculation that she was moving the AIADMK
towards an alliance with the BJP. Living up to her reputation for
being mercurial, she quickly backtracked. Asked about Karunanidhi's
charge that the AIADMK, along with the BJP and its affiliates known
as the "Sangh Parivar," were out to stall the Sethusamudram project
using the Ram Sethu issue, she said: "I am not a part of the Sangh
Parivar. I've no alliance with the BJP. We are an independent party
with our own ideologies and convictions." Meanwhile, the few AIADMK
members who would talk to us, as usual, do not have a clue as to
what is on her mind. An AIADMK member of parliament told post that
he believed that there would be a BJP-AIADMK alliance if the BJP
does well in the upcoming elections in the north Indian states of
Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. But he emphasized it was only his
personal view and that Jayalalithaa would ultimately decide.


8. (SBU) COMMENT. As a minor party in Tamil Nadu, the BJP needs an
alliance with Jayalalithaa's AIADMK in order to be a factor in the
state. The depth of their eagerness was evident when Nambiar
mentioned the controversial arrest of Kanchi Shankaracharya, a
prominent Hindu religious figure, during Jayalalithaa's tenure as
Chief Minister. The 2004 arrest had infuriated the BJP and its
affiliates. But Nambiar told post that BJP had "forgiven"
Jayalalithaa and "forgotten" the arrest. BJP has much to gain from
a potential alliance, but the benefits to AIADMK are less clear.
Our BJP interlocutors emphasized the value to the AIADMK of being
associated with BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate in the national
polls. The AIADMK parliamentarian, however, noted that BJP does not
bring many votes to the table. Moreover, BJP's reputation for Hindu
nationalism scares off Tamil Nadu's substantial Muslim and Christian
minority voters. Jayalalithaa, whose control over her party is
absolute, will ultimately have to weigh the costs and benefits and
decide. Our best guess is that, assuming Karunanidhi and the DMK
stay in the Congress-led UPA, she will join up with BJP -- but as
usual, on her terms. END COMMENT.


9. This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi.

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