Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07CHENNAI620
2007-10-05 11:27:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:  

TURMOIL IN KARNATAKA AS GOVERNING COALITION TEETERS ON

Tags:  PGOV ECON IN 
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VZCZCXRO7865
RR RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCG #0620 2781127
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 051127Z OCT 07
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1266
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2809
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0846
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 5116
UNCLAS CHENNAI 000620 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON IN
SUBJECT: TURMOIL IN KARNATAKA AS GOVERNING COALITION TEETERS ON
COLLAPSE

REF: CHENNAI 611

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000620

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON IN
SUBJECT: TURMOIL IN KARNATAKA AS GOVERNING COALITION TEETERS ON
COLLAPSE

REF: CHENNAI 611


1. (SBU) Summary: Buoyed by unexpected success in the South Indian
state of Karnataka's September 28 local elections, the ruling Janata
Dal (Secular) party refused to hand over the position of Chief
Minister (CM) on October 3 to its BJP coalition partner as required
in their coalition agreement. In response, all 17 BJP ministers
submitted their resignations. The opposition Congress party,
sensing an opportunity to formally shatter the coalition, has
demanded that Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy to prove his majority
through a floor vote. Tensions within and between parties are
unlikely to subside anytime soon, and early elections to the state
government seem more and more likely. End summary.

JD(S) reneges on coalition agreement
--------------


2. (U) Karnataka's local elections on September 28 gave an
unexpectedly positive outcome for the JD(S). While Congress won a
plurality of local seats (1606 out of 5004 possible),it previously
held a clear majority. The JD(S) achieved near parity with
Congress, winning 1502 seats, up sharply from the previous election.
It also did well in many urban areas, dispelling the notion that it
is only capable of winning in rural areas. D. Revana Gowda,
Karnataka's Minister for Public Works, told us that the results
"exceeded our wildest expectations." The BJP came in third, with
1180 seats, also a significant increase.


3. (SBU) The unexpectedly good electoral news apparently proved to
be the deciding factor in the decision to break the party's promise
to its coalition partner to give the BJP its first-ever CM position
in a southern India state. The decision to refuse the handover was
not unexpected (see reftel),but still controversial. In response,
all 17 BJP ministers in the cabinet resigned, but CM Kumaraswamy has
yet to forward these resignations to the Governor for approval.


Congress seizes the opportunity
--------------


4. (SBU) Smelling political blood in the water, Karnataka's Congress
party leaders met with Governor Rameshwar Thakur on October 5 to
demand that he require the CM to prove that he still commands a
majority in the state's legislature. There is, however,
disagreement within Congress as to how to proceed. National
Congress leaders are encouraging the state party to join in a
governing coalition with the JD(S),but state politicians are
resisting, fearing that they will suffer from an anti-incumbency
electoral backlash if the current situation leads to early
elections. (Note: Elections in Karnataka are not required until

2009. End note.) "We hope the high command hears our plea," one
state-level Congress leader told us.

BJP prepares for electoral martydom
--------------


5. (SBU) Jilted by the JD(S),some BJP officials are nonetheless
still hoping for an unlikely last-minute change of heart that might
save the coalition and prevent early elections. One of the resigned
BJP ministers told us, "none of the legislators want elections"
while another said that voters will have sympathy for the BJP and
its shabby treatment at the hands of the JD(S).

Comment
--------------


6. (SBU) The situation in Karnataka is still fluid, but seems likely
to result in early elections in any event. Congress politicians
still expect to do well in early elections, but the surprising
results of local elections suggest that their optimism may be
misplaced.

HOPPER