Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07CHENNAI611
2007-09-28 09:56:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Chennai
Cable title:
TENSIONS RISE IN BANGALORE AS HANDOVER DEADLINE
how-toVZCZCXRO0753 RR RUEHBI RUEHCI DE RUEHCG #0611 2710956 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 280956Z SEP 07 FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1257 INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2802 RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0842 RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 5112 RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 1361
UNCLAS CHENNAI 000611
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON IN
SUBJECT: TENSIONS RISE IN BANGALORE AS HANDOVER DEADLINE
APPROACHES
REF: 06 CHENNAI 163
UNCLAS CHENNAI 000611
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON IN
SUBJECT: TENSIONS RISE IN BANGALORE AS HANDOVER DEADLINE
APPROACHES
REF: 06 CHENNAI 163
1. (SBU) Summary: The south Indian state of Karnataka (and its
capital, Bangalore) appears set for several months of political
turmoil, which may help Congress gain more than a dozen seats if
national parliamentary elections are held in 2008. The ruling
BJP-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition is crumbling, with a major
rupture possible soon if -- as appears likely -- the JD(S) Chief
Minister refuses to hand over his position to his BJP Deputy on
October 3 as required by the coalition agreement. Elections for
local offices scheduled for September 28 will only increase tension
within the coalition and discredit its members, leaving Congress as
voters' most likely choice in a possible 2008 Lok Sabha election.
End Summary.
To hand over, or not
--------------
2. (SBU) With many observers predicting that national parliamentary
elections could occur in 2008, the most recent political rumblings
in Karnataka threaten to discredit the state's ruling coalition and
place a significant proportion of its 28 parliamentary seats in New
Delhi into the hands of Congress and its allies. Currently ruled by
a JD(S)-BJP coalition, the JD(S) Chief Minister (CM) should --
according to the coalition agreement -- hand over the CM's reigns to
the BJP Deputy CM on October 3.
3. (SBU) Rumors have long swirled that the CM may not honor this
agreement, which could force state elections by early 2008. The
inability of the two parties to reach an agreement respecting each
other's turf for the September 28 local elections has only
strengthened these rumors. Clashing business interests between
leading JD(S) and BJP families also play a factor. One of the CM's
top aides told us "the decision (to not hand over the CM's chair)
has already been made," but said that the CM was very reluctant to
renege on his promise to hand over the office and was looking for a
face-saving alternative. A senior BJP official told Embassy New
Delhi, however, that he was confident that his party and the JD(S)
would work out their differences and that the transfer of power
would occur as scheduled.
The BJP's first taste of power in the South
--------------
4. (U) Karnata's JD(S)-BJP coalition is significant because its
formation in 2006 marked the first time that the BJP formed part of
a ruling coalition in a south Indian state (reftel). The JD(S)-BJP
coalition cobbled itself together following the collapse of a
Congress-led coalition in January 2006, following the defection of a
group of JD(S) members. At the time, several of our contacts
predicted that the coalition was unlikely to last a year, and
certainly not until the next scheduled state elections in 2009.
How the parties rate their chances
--------------
5. (SBU) Local BJP officials have told us that the state party is
split, with one faction supporting the coalition with JD(S) and the
other seeking an independent approach. One told us that the BJP
"might" be able to win 10 seats in Karnataka in a 2008 national
election; another said that the party would be lucky to get three.
(Currently, the BJP has 16 of Karnataka's seats in the Lok Sabha,
Congress 9, JD(S) 2, and the Samajwadi Party 1).
6. (SBU) The local Congress branch is happy to adopt a wait-and-see
approach while the coalition's members discredit themselves with
their inability to act like partners. One prominent Congress
politician told us that the party's national leadership believes
that it will win a clear majority of Karnataka's seats in a 2008
national election. Another cautioned, however, that infighting
among Congress factions has already started, as they see what looks
to be a sizable number of seats available for the taking.
Comment
--------------
7. (SBU) The tensions within the coalition will not go away anytime
soon. If the JD(S) does unexpectedly well in the September 28 local
elections, it may hand the CM position to the BJP, but it will
intentionally make life hard for the new CM, confident that a snap
call for statewide elections will give it more seats. If the JD(S)
does not do well in the September 28 elections, it will try to hold
on to the CM's position at all costs. Either choice will only
increase coalition tensions, and enhance Congress's chances in
Karnataka if a national poll happens in 2008.
HOPPER
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON IN
SUBJECT: TENSIONS RISE IN BANGALORE AS HANDOVER DEADLINE
APPROACHES
REF: 06 CHENNAI 163
1. (SBU) Summary: The south Indian state of Karnataka (and its
capital, Bangalore) appears set for several months of political
turmoil, which may help Congress gain more than a dozen seats if
national parliamentary elections are held in 2008. The ruling
BJP-Janata Dal (Secular) coalition is crumbling, with a major
rupture possible soon if -- as appears likely -- the JD(S) Chief
Minister refuses to hand over his position to his BJP Deputy on
October 3 as required by the coalition agreement. Elections for
local offices scheduled for September 28 will only increase tension
within the coalition and discredit its members, leaving Congress as
voters' most likely choice in a possible 2008 Lok Sabha election.
End Summary.
To hand over, or not
--------------
2. (SBU) With many observers predicting that national parliamentary
elections could occur in 2008, the most recent political rumblings
in Karnataka threaten to discredit the state's ruling coalition and
place a significant proportion of its 28 parliamentary seats in New
Delhi into the hands of Congress and its allies. Currently ruled by
a JD(S)-BJP coalition, the JD(S) Chief Minister (CM) should --
according to the coalition agreement -- hand over the CM's reigns to
the BJP Deputy CM on October 3.
3. (SBU) Rumors have long swirled that the CM may not honor this
agreement, which could force state elections by early 2008. The
inability of the two parties to reach an agreement respecting each
other's turf for the September 28 local elections has only
strengthened these rumors. Clashing business interests between
leading JD(S) and BJP families also play a factor. One of the CM's
top aides told us "the decision (to not hand over the CM's chair)
has already been made," but said that the CM was very reluctant to
renege on his promise to hand over the office and was looking for a
face-saving alternative. A senior BJP official told Embassy New
Delhi, however, that he was confident that his party and the JD(S)
would work out their differences and that the transfer of power
would occur as scheduled.
The BJP's first taste of power in the South
--------------
4. (U) Karnata's JD(S)-BJP coalition is significant because its
formation in 2006 marked the first time that the BJP formed part of
a ruling coalition in a south Indian state (reftel). The JD(S)-BJP
coalition cobbled itself together following the collapse of a
Congress-led coalition in January 2006, following the defection of a
group of JD(S) members. At the time, several of our contacts
predicted that the coalition was unlikely to last a year, and
certainly not until the next scheduled state elections in 2009.
How the parties rate their chances
--------------
5. (SBU) Local BJP officials have told us that the state party is
split, with one faction supporting the coalition with JD(S) and the
other seeking an independent approach. One told us that the BJP
"might" be able to win 10 seats in Karnataka in a 2008 national
election; another said that the party would be lucky to get three.
(Currently, the BJP has 16 of Karnataka's seats in the Lok Sabha,
Congress 9, JD(S) 2, and the Samajwadi Party 1).
6. (SBU) The local Congress branch is happy to adopt a wait-and-see
approach while the coalition's members discredit themselves with
their inability to act like partners. One prominent Congress
politician told us that the party's national leadership believes
that it will win a clear majority of Karnataka's seats in a 2008
national election. Another cautioned, however, that infighting
among Congress factions has already started, as they see what looks
to be a sizable number of seats available for the taking.
Comment
--------------
7. (SBU) The tensions within the coalition will not go away anytime
soon. If the JD(S) does unexpectedly well in the September 28 local
elections, it may hand the CM position to the BJP, but it will
intentionally make life hard for the new CM, confident that a snap
call for statewide elections will give it more seats. If the JD(S)
does not do well in the September 28 elections, it will try to hold
on to the CM's position at all costs. Either choice will only
increase coalition tensions, and enhance Congress's chances in
Karnataka if a national poll happens in 2008.
HOPPER