KERALA COMMUNISTS FEAR LOSSES IN POSSIBLE PARLIAMENTARY

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000602

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: KERALA COMMUNISTS FEAR LOSSES IN POSSIBLE PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS

REF: CHENNAI 281


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist)
(CPI(M)) and its allies in the southern Indian state of Kerala are
apprehensive about possible parliamentary elections should India's
Left Parties withdraw support from the ruling United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) in New Delhi. The state's leftist coalition, led by
the CPI(M),recognizes that it is unlikely to repeat the magic of
its 2004 performance when the coalition won eighteen of the state's
twenty parliamentary seats. Nonetheless, the state CPI(M) seems
unwilling to pressure the national party to forestall parliamentary
elections by cooling down its dispute with the UPA over the
U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation initiative. The state CPI(M)
appears to be hoping that a strong anti-U.S. stand will lead to the
long-term consolidation of Muslim votes, thus compensating for any
loss of parliamentary seats in the short-term. END SUMMARY.

NOWHERE TO GO BUT DOWN
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2. (SBU) Sixteen months after a landslide victory in the state
assembly elections which brought the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic
Front (LDF) to power, the LDF is rapidly losing popular support.
Along with sweeping to power in the state government, the LDF took a
remarkable eighteen of the state's twenty parliamentary seats in

2004. But it is unlikely they will be able to hold the
parliamentary seats if the continuing dispute on the national level
between the Left parties and the UPA over the U.S.-India civil
nuclear cooperation initiative leads to early parliamentary
elections. A journalist who covers Kerala politics told us "if they
hold the Lok Sabha elections now, the CPI(M) would lose more than
half the seats." Two members of the opposition Congress party noted
that no government had become so unpopular so quickly in Kerala.

KERALA LEFTISTS IN DISARRAY AND CONSUMED BY INFIGHTING
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3. (SBU) Media contacts said infighting within the CPI(M) has
thrown the party into disarray. The Chief Minister, eighty-four
year old stalwart V.S. Achuthanandan, is in the words of one
businessman "a throwback" to the old-style communists. He fought
his way to the Chief Ministership despite opposition from a more
reform-minded faction in the CPI(M) led by the party's State
Secretary Pinarayi Vijayan (reftel). The squabble has continued to

SIPDIS
this day and both sides are looking to the party's 2008 internal
elections as a chance to take control once and for all.


4. (SBU) Our media contact said CPI(M) members feel the Chief
Minister often undermines the party by acting without sufficient
consultation. He pointed to the Chief Minister's recent "demolition
drive," in which he personally helped tear down buildings whose
owners had encroached on public land. He did so without first
consulting his cabinet. As a result, both he and his cabinet
ministers were embarrassed when it came to be known that the
CPI(M)'s own offices where among the offending buildings.


5. (SBU) Members of Achuthanandan's cabinet conceded that the party
and the government are indeed facing challenges. Finance Minister
Dr. Thomas Isaac admitted that the government had made a number of
missteps. He cited the controversy surrounding the Indian Space
Research Organization's (ISRO) purchase of private land which turned
out to be in a protected ecologically sensitive area. The
opposition Congress claimed that the CPI(M)'s Forests Minister
improperly colluded with the estate owner to move the controversial
deal forward. On the readiness of the CPI(M) to face parliamentary
elections, Education Minister M.A. Baby, a Central Committee Member
of the CPI(M),seemed resigned. He said: "Nobody would like an
election at this point, but if an election is thrust upon us, we
will face it."

INEXPERIENCED MINISTERS, SHIFTING POLICIES
--------------


6. (SBU) Business contacts were very critical of the government's
performance in Kerala. They cited a lack of progress on
infrastructure and failing schools as major drags on the state.
Inexperience is a major problem, said one businessman, noting that
most of the CPI(M) ministers, including the Chief Minister, have no
prior experience in government. Chief Secretary Lizzie Jacob (the
state's highest bureaucrat),who stepped down the day after we met
her, commented that unlike the better performing neighboring
southern Indian states, Kerala's coalitions are ideologically
opposite to each other. As a result, she said, alternation of
government results in wholesale policy changes on a regular basis.
Business contacts agreed that the uncertain policy environment
hampered economic development.

LEFT HAS AN EYE ON MUSLIM VOTES
AND CONGRESS PLAYS CHINA CARD
--------------



7. (SBU) Although gleeful with the troubles facing the LDF, two
Congress legislators we met did not seem eager to face elections at
this time. They said the Left's campaign against the U.S.-India
civil nuclear deal is directed at the state's substantial Muslim
population. They worried that the level of resentment against U.S.
policies in Iraq among Kerala's increasingly radical Muslim
population could drive them to vote for the Left parties. The
Congress legislators told us their party would stand to gain by
delaying elections to allow opposition to U.S. policy to wane. One
of the legislators said that the CPI(M) is helping advance China's
interest in opposing the strategic partnership with the United
States. When we noted that we have been hearing this charge with
increasing frequency, one of the legislators acknowledged that the
Congress party believes it is an effective weapon and is making a
concerted effort to use it.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: The dominant tone of our conversations with
members of Kerala's CPI(M) was resignation. The party, though
dispirited, seems determined to continue down the path of conflict
with the UPA over the U.S.-India civil nuclear initiative. They are
clear-eyed in what that means in Kerala: early elections in which
they know they will likely lose many of the eighteen parliamentary
seats they won in 2004. But it appears that they are willing to
suffer such losses to maintain their consistent opposition to the
United States and through that opposition to possibly pick up votes
among the state's Muslim population. END COMMENT.


9. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi.

HOPPER