JAYALALITHAA SPLITS INDIA'S THIRD FRONT IN PRESIDENTIAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000477

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: JAYALALITHAA SPLITS INDIA'S THIRD FRONT IN PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION

REF: New Delhi 2678


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: India's United National Progressive Alliance
(UNPA),commonly known as the Third Front, failed its first test of
unity on July 19 when members of Tamil Nadu's AIADMK, one of the key
Third Front parties, voted in India's presidential election rather
than abstaining as the Third Front leaders had agreed to do. By
allowing her party members to vote, AIADMK leader J Jayalalithaa
embarrassed her Third Front partners and cast doubt on the already
questionable viability of the coalition. Moreover, Jayalalithaa's
decision has rekindled the BJP's hopes of reviving its alliance with
the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. END
SUMMARY.

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JAYALALITHAA LIVES UP TO IMAGE AS A DANGEROUS PARTNER
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2. (SBU) J Jayalalithaa, leader of Tamil Nadu's AIADMK and former
Chief Minister, has been widely characterized as "mercurial,"
"unpredictable," and "whimsical." Her latest act -- allowing the
AIADMK's 59 members of the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly to vote
for National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) candidate Bhairon Singh
Shekhawat -- has helped buttress that popular impression. By
allowing her party to vote despite the Third Front's collective
decision to abstain, Jayalalithaa struck a serious blow to the
coalition's already questionable viability. The Telegu Desam Party
(TDP),her coalition partner in Andhra Pradesh, was particularly
stung. TDP spokesperson Vidyadhar Rao told post: "It was
disappointing but Jayalalithaa is known for unpredictable action."
He put on a brave face, however, saying the Third Front "will
materialize at an opportune time" and that "till February or March
2008, the Third Front will remain fluid. As [the] next elections
approach it will concretize."


3. (SBU) Although she herself abstained from voting, no one takes
seriously Jayalalithaa's explanation that her party members voted
without consulting her. The control she holds over the party is a
commonly acknowledged fact in Tamil Nadu. A key leader of an allied
party, the MDMK, told post that Jayalalithaa's far-fetched
explanation of her party men's voting and her personal decision not
to vote were aimed to mollify the Third Front leaders. Presumably in
an effort to save face, TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu used
Jayalalithaa's explanation to claim that the UNPA remains "solid as
rock".

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NEW HOPES FOR THE BJP IN THE 2009 NATIONAL ELECTIONS
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4. (SBU) Tamil Nadu's 39 seats in the Lok Sabha, all of which were
won by UPA partners in the last election, are an important piece of
the ruling UPA's majority. The BJP is clearly looking toward the
2009 Lok Sabha elections with an eye towards partnering with
Jayalalithaa's AIADMK to roll back the UPA's sweep of the seats.
The MDMK leader made clear the parties are already inching in that
direction: "After Jaswant Singh visited Jayalalithaa (on July 1)
and requested votes for Shekhawat, Jayalalithaa did not want to
disappoint the BJP because a coalition with the BJP is one option
for her [own rise to power in] the next Lok Sabha elections."


5. (SBU) Perhaps another key factor in the episode is the vote cast
by the Vijayakanth, the lone member of the legislative assembly and
leader of a fledgling party, the DMDK. Indications are that
Vijayakanth, a popular film star who started the up-and-coming DMDK,
voted for Shekhawat. A BJP-AIADMK coalition for 2009 could prove
formidable if they could rope in Vijayakanth too, as they seem to
have done in the presidential poll. Despite the fact that the DMDK
has only one seat in the legislature, it is widely believed to
command over 15 percent of the votes in the state.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: The presidential poll has raised possibilities of
new combinations in the national 2009 election. Simultaneously,
Jayalalithaa's decision has dealt a blow to the fledgling Third
Front, confirming the notion that it is only a second choice for
many of its component parties. The BJP has reasons to cheer about
the confusion in the ranks of the Third Front and Jaswant Singh's
success in pulling in the AIADMK and the DMDK. Although the BJP has
no significant presence in Tamil Nadu, it could make its coalition
viable again in this key southern state by reviving its alliance
with the AIADMK and other smaller parties. But that they are
considering partnering with the mercurial Jayalalithaa is a measure
of the BJP's tough straits in Tamil Nadu, as it was her betrayal
that brought down the BJP coalition in 1999. END COMMENT.


8. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi.


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