BANGALORE CALM AFTER CAUVERY RIVER WATER VERDICT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000100

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS, CA/OCS, DS/IP/SCA, DS/DSERCC, DS/ITA AND
DS/OSAC

NEW DELHI FOR POL, RSO, FCS, DAO, ODC AND CONS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KWWT ASEC CASC SOCI KCRM ECON IN
SUBJECT: BANGALORE CALM AFTER CAUVERY RIVER WATER VERDICT

REF: A) CHENNAI 52 B) CHENNAI 31


1. (SBU) Summary: Bangalore remained calm on February 6 following an
interstate river water tribunal verdict on February 5 over a
long-simmering dispute involving the sharing of water that flows
through the southern states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Perceived
injustice in Karnataka sparked impromptu demonstrations across the
state on February 5. Mission personnel currently in Bangalore to
support the USG presence for Aero India 2007 air show were
unhindered and most city businesses functioned normally. There were
no reports of American citizens being caught up in the
demonstrations. A strong police presence and clear orders from the
government ensured law and order. The verdict may provide a new
framework through which interstate river water disputes could be
settled. End summary

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Karnataka perceived as loosing its share of river water
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2. (SBU) In a decision more than 17 years in the making, the Cauvery
Water Dispute Tribunal gave its "final" verdict on February 5,
allocating 419 Thousand Million Cubic Feet (TMCFT) of the estimated
750 TMCFT that flows through the river Cauvery to Tamil Nadu.
Karnataka on the other hand was allocated 270 TMCFT. The award,
however, reduces the quantum of water that Karnataka must release
from its reservoirs to neighboring Tamil Nadu to 192 TMCFT, compared
with 205 TMCFT required by the 1991 interim award.

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Perceived injustice leaves parts of Bangalore tense
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3. (SBU) Perceptions of injustice, especially among Kannada
chauvinist and farmer groups such as the Kannada Senna and Karnataka
Rajya Raitha Sangha, resulted in sporadic demonstrations in a few
Bangalore localities on February 5. Processions, road and rail
blockades were the forms of protest adopted in the districts of
Mysore, Mandya, and Chamrajnagar. These were unorganized, however,
and died down by evening when the media began reporting the nuances
of the verdict. Karnataka Chief Minister Kumaraswamy has scheduled
an al- party meeting on February 6 at 1600 to discuss the verdict.
Some political groups have proposed a state wide strike on February
8 to protest the decision.

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Aero India: The Show goes on
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4. (U) Mission personnel in Bangalore on February 5, to facilitate
USG participation in the air show Aero India, were able to go about
their business unhindered. With the disturbances restricted to a
few localities, Mission personnel accessed the Indian Air Force base
at Yelahanka, the show's venue, without difficulty. Embassy
officers in the city also went through their separate schedules
without any problems. Shops and businesses closed early, however,
as did schools and college,s more as a precaution than due to real
violence.

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US Citizens safe
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5. (U) U.S. citizen wardens in Bangalore confirmed to post's ACS
Unit that violence and tensions are largely localized, with
disruptions only for people who live in or pass through affected
areas. The U.S. Commercial Service's Bangalore branch office
operated as usual.


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Clear orders and strong police presence ensures order
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6. (SBU) Anticipating tension, however, the state governments of
Karnataka and Tamil Nadu put police personnel on alert. Karnataka
went a step further and sought additional forces from Andhra Pradesh
and Kerala, the other southern states. Clear orders were issued to
the police to put down any violence in both states. All- party
meetings called by the Karnataka Chief Minister ensured an early
political consensus - likely affected by the need to preserve calm
during Aero India -- that kept organized demonstrations off
Bangalore's streets. Post will continue to monitor the situation and

CHENNAI 00000100 002 OF 002


will report further developments.

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Bangalore Image Intact for Now; Verdict a possible model
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7. (SBU) Comment: Although the situation remains fluid, so far the
government of Karnataka has succeeded in controlling the
on-the-street reaction to the water verdict, protecting for now the
Bangalore "brand" recently tarnished by other outbreaks of violence.
On the technical side, irrigation experts in both Tamil Nadu and
Karnataka hail the verdict as a just allocation of water resources
and for naming an implementation authority. The verdict, they say,
provides a framework through which other ongoing river water
disputes throughout India between various states could be settled.
By naming the Central Water Commission as the implementing
authority, the tribunal has placed allocation of river water in the
hands of the central government, altering the distribution of power
between the center and the states. Since other inter-state water
related disputes may now be handled at the central government level,
this could give rise to charges of Central political favoritism to
states allied with the governing coalition by states that end up as
losers in any future water sharing dispute.


8. (SBU) In terms of political fallout, this verdict has the
potential to create problems for the Congress party in Karnataka.
Many political analysts in Delhi opine that the verdict would be
seen as a victory for the Congress party's UPA allies in Tamil Nadu
and as a set back for the BJP/Janata Dal coalition in Karnataka.
With the Congress Party on shaky ground in Karnataka, analysts
expect the Party to be on the defensive if Karnataka were to go to
polls in the near future. End Comment.


9. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi.

HOPPER