CASABLANCA: POST-ELECTION TALK OF THE TOWN

C O N F I D E N T I A L CASABLANCA 000207

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG, INR/NESA/NAP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2017
TAGS: MO PGOV PINR PHUM
SUBJECT: CASABLANCA: POST-ELECTION TALK OF THE TOWN


Classified By: Principal Officer Douglas C. Greene for Reasons 1.4
(b),(d).

REF: RABAT 01617


1. (SBU) Summary: Casablanca, with its diverse population,
represents a cross-section of Morocco and reactions here to the
recent elections and formation of a new government are revealing.
While voter turnout across the country was only 37 percent, it was an
embarrassing 27 percent in Casablanca. Casablancans' lack of trust
in the system, charges of widespread corruption and poor management,
or simple disinterest or confusion - all combined to keep almost
three quarters of voters away from the polls.


2. (C) The appointment of the new Prime Minister, Abbas El-Fassi,
was a disappointment to most Casablancans. However, while there is
a general lack of confidence in the new Prime Minister, the verdict
is still out on the 33 new members of his government. Of even
greater interest in Casablanca, however, is the fact that the party
that led Casablanca in popular votes and the number of seats won in
parliament, the Islamic Party of Justice and Development (PJD),was
excluded from participation in the government. Many Casablancans,
whether pro-PJD or anti-PJD, would like to see what the party can do.
Many also believe that the PJD may very well be given the chance in
the 2009 municipal elections -- if the government remains neutral.
End Summary

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Transparent Democratic Elections - Really?
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3. (SBU) For the September 7, 2007, parliamentary elections only 37
percent of registered Moroccan voters bothered to show up at the
polls, and an even lower 27 percent participated in Greater
Casablanca. In a city of nearly six million residents, boasting a
population that includes some of the richest and poorest in the
country, educated and illiterate, urban dwellers and recent rural
migrants, the statement was clear, according to many Casablancans we
have spoken with: "we don't trust the system and we don't care."
Numerous Casablancan contacts quietly scoffed at praise from abroad
applauding Morocco's electoral success.


4. (SBU) That said, most Casablancans we talked with acknowledged
improvement, even while expressing serious doubts. "Maybe this
election day was cleaner than before," one young caf customer told
us, "but what about before the day of the elections, were people
watching [for corruption] before?" "You saw what happened, Istiqlal
won," another customer chimed in. "They have done this before and
have the best system for buying votes." However, while many were
skeptical of claims of a "clean" election, the majority of
Casablancans we spoke with readily admitted that there appeared to be
a concerted and public effort on the part of the government to curb
corruption in the elections, a noted change from the past. But, when
asked if he thought the elections were "democratic," one patron
chuckled and walked away.


5. (C) A senior PJD member we met with over "iftar" during Ramadan
spoke frankly about his party's views. Bribes and corruption were
widespread, in advance of the elections, he charged. Many parties
paid voters to come out and vote for them. Yes, the government had
taken some widely-publicized steps to crack down on corruption in the
months in advance of the elections, but during election week, the
government was a "study in neutrality" on corrupt practices by
parties. Second, management of the elections was poor. Our contact
cited many citizens who had registered, but whose names were not on
the voters lists when election day came (and who therefore were not
allowed to vote). "My mother, for example," he exclaimed. Third,
re-districting ("Texas-style," he smiled) had been effectively
implemented by the government in the period before the elections to
be certain that in key areas, the party with the most votes would not
win the most seats. The clear goal of the King, in sanctioning this
effort, was to be sure that no one party could win big - that the
parliament would necessarily be composed of many parties, with no one
able to exert undue influence.

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X Marks the Vote
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6. (SBU) Despite efforts by the government to run a cleaner election
and encourage voter participation, the vast majority of Casablancans
simply did not vote. On election night, poloff dinned with a group
of ten well- educated Moroccan business people. The only one of the
ten who voted was a woman from a political family in Rabat with a PhD
from Duke University. The nearly unanimous reason for abstention by
the others present was the unwavering certainty that their votes were
irrelevant. When asked if they were concerned about the PJD
apparently wining a majority of the popular vote in Casablanca, this
very liberal assemblage dismissed any concern about the possibility
of an Islamist government. Expressing support for democracy up to a
point, they noted that "the king would never let things get out of
hand." Many of this small class of affluent young Casablancans put
their complete trust in the 44 year-old monarch and have little
concern that their comfortable situation will deteriorate as long as
the King controls all key decisions in the country.


7. On the other end of the spectrum, we spoke to a number of
residents from some of the most impoverished communities in
Casablanca who did and did not participate in elections. None were
very well informed about parties or candidates. "I just went in and
made my "x" but I don't know any of the candidates," chuckled a tiny
old man working as a caretaker in one of Casablanca's middle class
neighborhoods. "I gave somebody a job for a few years" he smiled.
Many people with whom we spoke did not vote because of unfamiliarity
with the candidates or confusion about the vast number of party
symbols. Some we met voted for the PJD, explaining that it was the
only non-corrupt party and the only one which was visible throughout
the year in the dilapidated neighborhoods. One young recent high
school graduate we spoke to from Sidi Moumen wanted to participate
but did not have an idea for whom to vote. "I like horses" he joked
"so I marked the horse (the symbol for the Constitutional Union
Party)."

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Disappointment with the PM and MPs
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8. (C) When the King appointed Abbas El-Fassi Prime Minister there
was an audible groan from the Casablancans who were paying attention.
In his role as Minister of Labor, El-Fassi promoted - presumably
unknowingly - the bogus ploy of an Emirati company to hire 30,000
Moroccans in 2002, bilking Moroccan's out of hundreds of thousands of
dollars. Moroccans have not forgotten this fiasco, and view it as an
indication of El-Fassi's incompetence (reftel). To boot, El-Fassi
served as Ambassador to France from 1990-1994, during a period one
contact deemed one of the "worst in Moroccan-French relations."
Recently, many took it as a grim sign that the new Prime Minister
failed to propose a complete cabinet by the October 12 deadline set
by the king.


9. (C) To our surprise, even some strong advocates for democratic
and transparent change came out against the King's decision to
appoint El-Fassi despite the fact that as Secretary General of the
winning party he was the obvious choice. Younes Naoumi, president of
Association Action Jeunesse, a Casablanca-based NGO that received
MEPI funding for a youth election program, was very outspoken in his
dissatisfaction with the new PM. While Naoumi admitted that, yes,
appointing the head of the winning party was democratically the
proper measure, he couldn't help feeling like it was "taking a step
backwards." Naoumi, however, is waiting for what he calls the real
test, local elections in 2009.


10. (SBU) In the short period since the palace announced the new
government on October 15, some Casablancans have reacted with further
cynicism. One local professional told poloff that she and her
colleagues got together the morning after the announcement to discuss
the appointments. They even consulted the new ministers' biographies
on the internet since so many names were unfamiliar. "It's a
disaster," she said. "So many of these people have no experience at
all or they are just the same old men." Others we spoke to echoed
her feelings of disappointment, however, sometimes with the hopeful
caveat that even though the PM was from the old school, there was
still a chance for positive movement if he made some sweeping
changes.


11. (SBU) Others, nevertheless, seemed more than willing to take a
wait and see approach. Many of the newly appointed technocrats, they
said, could provide the energy needed to revive the parliament. Even
so, there is a fear from some corners that the new ministers" may
find themselves facing roadblocks to changes they propose. By far
the majority of Casablancans we spoke with, however, were simply
uninterested in the workings of the government in Rabat.

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What about the PJD?
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12. (SBU) The Islamist PJD did well in the popular vote throughout
the country, winning the majority, with 503,396 votes against new
ruling party Istiqlal's 494,256. In Casablanca, PJD candidates won
at least one seat in nearly every district. The only exception was
of the affluent Anfa neighborhood, where oddly enough, another
candidate from the Islamist Party of Renaissance and Virtue (PRV) won
a seat. As noted above, many believe nationwide redistricting,
completed only months before the elections, was responsible for the
PJD coming up short in the number of seats the party won throughout
the country. In Casablanca, this was almost certainly the case. The
PJD's image of honesty and concern resonates here not only in the
poorer neighborhoods but with many middle class city dwellers who see
the PJD as the only party against corruption.


13. (SBU) Although there was a general consensus on why the PJD did
so well in the city, even the most stalwart secular liberals seemed
unconcerned. "I would have loved to see them in the government just
to screw up," said a U.S.-educated Moroccan shop owner in an upscale
neighborhood. The sentiment is echoed by many in Casablanca who
believe that as long as the PJD remains in opposition, they will
remain the underdog heroes who, in the eyes of many, could save the
country if only given a chance. "Let them show what they can do," is
a statement often heard in cafes around the city from both sides of
the fence. Overall, however, very few Casablancans see any changes
ahead regarding their real concerns -- jobs, increasing food prices
and housing -- no matter who is in power. "Nothing will change with
the new government" is a refrain we often hear.


14. (C) Our senior PJD contact put it differently. The regime is
hurting itself, he said, by keeping the PJD out of the government.
The PJD is the vehicle for Islamist sentiment and emotion in the
country, and to the extent those who hold Islamist views are blocked
from participation in government, then there will be problems down
the road. The PJD in opposition does not serve the interests of
long-term stability in Morocco - an interest which the PJD shares
with the regime, he claimed.

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Local Elections in 2009
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15. (SBU) According to Lahcen Haddad, national board member of the
Popular Movement Party, "redistricting worked well for the government
in the national elections, but wait until 2009." The PJD could win
big in the local elections if there is no government interference, he
predicted. Many Casablancans share that view, and believe that the
2009 local elections may be a crossroads for the city. Some here
feel that if the GOM is truly committed to transparent democratic
elections, it must remain on the sidelines. Moreover, they say that
for the general population to regain faith in what they perceive to
be a corrupt system, the oversight of the 2007 elections must be
improved upon.


16. (SBU) Naoumi, who believes that local elections provide the only
opportunity for a real democratic exercise under the current system,
also thinks the PJD will do well in local elections. "If they win"
he says, "we will have to see what they do in office." Naoumi, who
is considering a run in his district in 2009, is an independent youth
activist who has much direct knowledge of the PDJ. "They know how to
reach out to the people" Naoumi told poloff. He related a story
about a recent concert, organized by his NGO, to promote youth
participation in the parliamentary elections. "I sent invitations to
the youth organizers of five leading parties" he said, "I received
one regret from the PPS and a phone call from the office of the PJD's
Secretary General saying the youth director would attend. He was

SIPDIS
there talking to people. That means something." No other party
representatives attended the event.

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Comment
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17. (SBU) There is a great deal of cynicism and apathy about the
current political situation among many of those we talk with here.
Suggestions that the new government will usher in positive changes
are met with apprehension at best and outright dismissal at worst.
But the focus here is on other issues: the high level of
unemployment, the increases in the price of commodities, and the
increase in crime in the city's neighborhoods. If, as most doubt,
the new government can make some improvements in the economic and
security situation before the municipal elections, there may be
stronger support for members of the current government's parties.
If, however, the situation remains the same or deteriorates, the door
will be left wide open for a PJD landslide. Casablancans of
different strips seem more than willing to give the Islamist party
the opportunity to make a difference. End Comment.

GREENE