Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07CASABLANCA180
2007-09-06 17:28:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Casablanca
Cable title:  

NORTHERN MOROCCO ELECTORATE EXPECTS LITTLE FROM ELECTIONS

Tags:  KDEM PGOV PREL MO 
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PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHCL #0180/01 2491728
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 061728Z SEP 07
FM AMCONSUL CASABLANCA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7828
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0301
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT 8078
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0588
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS 2051
RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS 2928
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CASABLANCA 000180 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG AND NEA/PI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2017
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL MO
SUBJECT: NORTHERN MOROCCO ELECTORATE EXPECTS LITTLE FROM ELECTIONS

REF: A) RABAT 1394; B) RABAT 1395; c) RABAT 1248

Classified By: Acting Principal Officer Charles Cole for reasons 1.4
(B) AND (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CASABLANCA 000180

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG AND NEA/PI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2017
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL MO
SUBJECT: NORTHERN MOROCCO ELECTORATE EXPECTS LITTLE FROM ELECTIONS

REF: A) RABAT 1394; B) RABAT 1395; c) RABAT 1248

Classified By: Acting Principal Officer Charles Cole for reasons 1.4
(B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: In Al Hoceima, on Morocco's Mediterranean coast,
estimates of voter turnout vary. Most believe participation will be
low, and will not exceed 50 percent. Those interviewed said they
would cast their votes based on family and tribal connections or what
a candidate had done for them, rather than on party. That said, many
registered distaste for the (Islamist) Party of Justice and
Development (PJD). While a few individuals claimed a corruption-free
environment, others admitted that bribery remains a problem. On the
whole, Al Hoceima residents are fed up with politicians' broken
promises and expect nothing from parliamentary elections. Those who
go to the polls will vote for voting's sake or to support family, not
for a party, platform or principle. End Summary.


2. (C) Econoff and FSN visited Al Hoceima on Morocco's Mediterranean
coast from August 27-29 to gauge the population's perspective on
parliamentary elections to be held September 7. Al Hoceima has about
60,000 residents, most of whom are Rif Berbers. The region runs on
remittances from the high percentage of locals who have migrated to
Europe.

--------------
ESTIMATES OF VOTER TURNOUT VARY
--------------


3. (C) Residents of the Al Hoceima area gave varying estimates of
expected voter turnout. Dr. Mohamed Boudra, Al Hoceima's mayor and
the leading candidate for the Party for Progress and Socialism (PPS),
projected a level of participation of 50 percent. Optimistically, he
said he believes all types of people will vote, from women to youth
to intellectuals. The local (nationalist) Istiqlal party campaign
manager, and the brother of the party's main candidate, also
estimated 40 to 50 percent participation.


4. (C) In the rocky village of Izemmouren, 11 km from Al Hoceima,
residents held different views on voter participation. A municipal
councilman there said he expected voter turnout to reach 80 percent.
Despite this prediction of high participation, however, he thought

few women would vote - a feeling shared by several young men from the
town. In addition, the councilman conceded that many villagers live
four to six kilometers from the nearest polling station, making
travel difficult unless someone provides a car - which parties are
forbidden to do (ref A). Asked if people would take the initiative
to vote under such circumstances, the councilman said yes, they would
take a taxi or walk, as they do for lesser activities such as card
games.

--------------
PICK THE PERSON, NOT THE PARTY
--------------


5. (C) Most people agreed that the individual trumps the party when
it comes to choosing a candidate. Ever the politician, PPS's Boudra
claimed that voters are interested in a candidate's credibility, with
party affiliation a strong influence. Residents of Izemmouren,
however, were more direct, saying that people would vote for someone
if he was family, put on a good show, or completed projects in the
area. A councilman in Izemmouren declined to name his candidate of
choice, but did say he was a relative. Similarly, a group of
unemployed young men indicated that, though they did not yet know for
whom they would vote, family or tribal connections would drive their
decision.

--------------
BUT DON'T PICK THE PJD
--------------


6. (C) While people placed more importance on the candidate than his
party affiliation, many expressed distain for the (Islamist) Party of
Justice and Development (PJD). Both Istiqlal's campaign manager and
Boudra felt the PJD had showed up too late, opening their local
headquarters just a few weeks prior to the start of the official
campaign period. In separate conversations, both men noted with
amused derision that the PJD calls itself 'the party of Islam.' As
the Istiqlal campaign manager put it, "What does that make us?"


7. (C) According to Boudra, the PJD plays upon the sentiments of
disenchanted youth, who feel Muslims are victims and want to lash out
against the West. He believes the people of Al Hoceima do not go in
for this line of thinking, as they are traditional and cling to the
religion of their parents and grandparents. A young woman who works

CASABLANCA 00000180 002 OF 002


at Al Hoceima's Regional Investment Center did say she would vote for
the PJD "to see what they could do," but this may be a function of
the fact that she is not from Al Hoceima but from Taza, closer to Fez
where the PJD has more influence.

-------------- --------------
CORRUPTION-FREE ELECTIONS - IN WORD, IF NOT IN DEED
-------------- --------------


8. (C) At least in word, corruption in Morocco is no longer a la
mode. Izemmouren's councilman insisted that his town is
corruption-free and that no one would trade votes for bribes. To
emphasize his point, he swore he would sooner survive on cactus fruit
than resort to vote-selling. Izemmouren's young men also said they
could not be bought. The councilman's high estimate of voter
turnout, combined with avowals of no corruption, suggest that
citizens have at least heard the GOM's pre-election rhetoric,
encouraging voting and discouraging corruption. Further discussion,
however, revealed that reality may not match rhetoric. One of the
young men, for example, said that if he accepted a bribe, he would
not necessarily vote as promised. Furthermore, he would expect a
service in return for selling his vote.


9. (C) PPS candidate Boudra put the onus on the electorate to refuse
bribes, saying "corruption functions in the conscience of voters"
(ref A). He admitted that candidates buy votes with money, but
believed the presence of observers will prevent this. With over 500
polling stations in Al Hoceima alone, however, he said 3000
country-wide observers are grossly insufficient.

--------------
BROKEN PROMISES, NO EXPECTATIONS
--------------


10. (C) Across the board, people in Al Hoceima expect little from
parliamentary elections. One woman working at a microcredit bureau
said she will not go to the polls on election day because she "does
not want to vote for someone to sleep in parliament." A young man
from Izemmouren recounted the story of a campaigning candidate who
asked him what town he was in; naturally, the young man questioned
how someone who does not even know where he is can help him.
Candidates and voters alike agree that people put more stock in
municipal elections than parliamentary ones, reflecting their
preoccupation with basic problems such as transport, sanitation and
unemployment, as well as their utter disappointment with politicians
who fail to make good on promises. Still, some Al Hoceima residents
will vote, if only because "at least if they vote, they are trying."


11. (C) Comment: The image of two teenage boys distributing campaign
flyers by Al Hoceima's taxi stand sums up the election outlook in
northern Morocco. One tries to give the flyers to passersby, while
the other tosses a few on the ground every few steps, eager to be rid
of his stack. While some seem willing to go through the motions of
participating in a parliamentary election, the majority is apathetic
and sees the exercise as futile. End Comment.

COLE