Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07CARACAS569
2007-03-15 19:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

VENEZUELA: A NEW TIME LAUNCHES NATIONALLY

Tags:  PGOV KDEM VE 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6800
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHCV #0569/01 0741915
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151915Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8147
INFO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0795
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CARACAS 000569 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: A NEW TIME LAUNCHES NATIONALLY


CARACAS 00000569 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON
FOR 1.4 (B) AND (D)

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CARACAS 000569

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: A NEW TIME LAUNCHES NATIONALLY


CARACAS 00000569 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON
FOR 1.4 (B) AND (D)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Zulia Governor and former opposition presidential
candidate Manuel Rosales launched his Zulia-based Un Nuevo
Tiempo (UNT, or A New Time in English) as a national
"alternative opposition" party March 3. The new UNT
incorporates Rosales' trusted Zulian advisers and popular
Caracas personalities that were prominent in his 2006
presidential campaign as well as dissidents from other
opposition parties. Shortly after the launch, Rosales told
the Ambassador that he was only "cautiously positive,"
doubting that half of his supporters understood his strategy
of presenting a positive political agenda rather than simply
opposing Chavez. While Rosales remains the opposition's
preeminent leader, the UNT must overcome several hurdles to
become a national opposition force, including its association
with discredited politicians and Rosales' own increasingly
domineering tendencies within the party, which are
threatening opposition unity. End Summary.

--------------
Rosales Launches National Party
--------------


2. (SBU) Zulia Governor and former opposition presidential
candidate Manuel Rosales launched the official conversion of
his Un Nuevo Tiempo (A New Time) from a Zulia-based party to
a national one March 3. Deploying the mantra "a new social
democracy," Rosales presented familiar themes from his
presidential campaign as the party's platform. The party
plans to hold an ideological congress within six months and
elections in a year, something few opposition parties have
done in recent history. Not known as a strong orator,
Rosales kept his clear if pedestrian remarks to just under 40
minutes and promised the UNT would be a "pluralistic
alternative," rather than yet another "mere opposition
party." Rosales also swore in new party leaders.

--------------
The New UNT Team
--------------


3. (C) In keeping with the "big-tent" theme of his
presidential campaign team, the new UNT leadership includes

dissidents from various opposition parties, most of whom had
prominent roles in his 2006 presidential campaign. Perhaps
the most notable non-Zulian additions are former Primero
Justicia (PJ) leaders Gerardo Blyde and Chacao Mayor Leopoldo
Lopez, who were named Secretary General and Vice President of
Citizen Participation and Popular Networks, respectively.
After splitting from PJ in early February, Blyde and Lopez
were expected to form their own party, Justicia Popular, but
in recent weeks had decided to negotiate with UNT.
Unconfirmed press accounts say that they were responsible for
the inclusion of social democracy in the party's motto.


4. (U) Rosales announced three commissions in charge of the
party's transition:

-- Organizing Commission: This board is a mixture of Rosales'
Zulian inner circle members and popular Caracas
personalities. It will establish the regional committees,
outline their responsibilities, and organize the ideological
congress. Its members are Rosales' closest political advisor
and former Zulia Governor Omar Barboza, President; Blyde;
Lopez; Accion Democratica (AD) dissident Alfonso Marquina,
Vice President of Legislative and Regional Affairs; William
Ojeda, Vice President of Sectorial Affairs; Rosales'
electoral expert Enrique Marquez, Vice President of
Organizational Affairs; and Enrique Ochoa Antich, Executive
Secretary.

SIPDIS

-- Consultative Committee: This group will advise and work
with the Organizing Commission to devise the party's short,
medium, and long-term strategies. It consists of Rosales;
senior Zulia State official and Rosales' 2006 campaign
manager Jose Vicente Carrasquerro; left-wing intellectual and
one-time guerillero Americo Martin; columnist and former
National Assembly (NA) Deputy Rafael Simon Jimenez; and
Mariela Mendoza.


CARACAS 00000569 002.2 OF 004


--Political Committee: "Tal Cual" editor and ex-presidential
candidate Teodoro Petkoff's advisor former campaign manager
Francisco Layrisse; PJ dissident and former NA deputy Liliana
Hernandez; former Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) NA deputy
Julio Montoya; Luis Manuel Esculpi; Rosales inner circle and
former UNT NA member Angel Emiro Vera; Diego Bautista
Urbaneja; Aristedes Hopedales; Luis Emilio Rondon, ex-AD
member who challenged Henry Ramos Allup for leadership of the
party; Chavez' former Agriculture Minister Hiram Gaviria; and
Adalberto Perez.

-- Separately, Rosales also appointed area coordinators that
will oversee the party's growth in each state. Noteworthy
coordinators include Timoteo Zambrano, who served as Rosales'
international secretary in the 2006 campaign; oil sector
expert and former Venezuelan representative to OPEC Heliodero
Quintero; PJ dissident D'elsa Solorzano; and former MAS NA
Deputy Carlos Tablante.

--------------
Party Building Threatens Opposition Unity
--------------


5. (C) Rosales' efforts to establish UNT as a principal
opposition force are predictably annoying the traditional
opposition parties. Christian Democratic Party (COPEI)
Sub-Secretary General Alejandro Vivas told Poloff March 1
that Rosales' self-imposed, "one-month public and private
black-out" generated hard feelings that still persist among
COPEI and other opposition parties. Vivas also complained
that Rosales appears to be moving away from a consensual
decision-making model to a more unilateral approach, which is
causing friction with the opposition. For example, during
Rosales' Caracas press conference in which he announced a
shared agenda with UNT, PJ, Movement Toward Socialism, Causa
R, Bandera Roja, and COPEI, Rosales abruptly announced a
platform on which the parties had not reached agreement,
creating more hard feelings. When COPEI subsequently
presented Rosales with a list of areas where it could work
with him; he "counter-offered" that COPEI should dissolve
into UNT.

--------------
Rosales' Expectations
--------------


6. (C) Following the UNT launch ceremony, Rosales, his
former campaign finance chief Ruben Barboza (Omar's brother),
Zulia Director of Sports Oslando Munoz, former NA Deputy
William Barriento, and Juan Barboza (cousin of Ruben and
Omar) called on the Ambassador at his residence. Rosales was
only cautiously positive on the launch of the national UNT.
He thought only about 50% of the supporters actually
understood what he was trying to do: engage Chavez with a
positive agenda that challenged his policies and programs.
Rosales thought the other 50% simply despised Chavez, and did
not understand the concept of actually having a political
agenda. That said, he is in politics for the long term and
UNT is organizing a national movement. Rosales said he
expected Chavez to go after him aggressively this year, but
he is ready to push back.



7. (U) Indeed, the BRV's attack on Rosales is underway. On
March 8 the National Assembly (NA) voted to petition the
Attorney General and Comptroller to investigate Rosales for
the Zulia government's alleged failure to pay retirement
bonuses to its retirees and diversion of money the NA
approved for such payments. The NA's oversight, finance, and
social development commissions will open a separate
investigation. During a March 9 press conference a defiant
Rosales explained that the debt was from past
administrations, including that of Chavez crony and current
Ambassador to the UN Francisco Arias Cardenas, and that his
administration had been paying it off. Rosales accused the
Chavistas of trying to entrap him by demanding he use the
national government funds to pay off the arrears in violation
of constitutional provisions requiring half of said money to
be used for social projects.

--------------
Trip to Washington
--------------


8. (C) The Ambassador also brought up Rosales' recent trip
to Washington and told him that he had done his cause no help

CARACAS 00000569 003.2 OF 004


by the last minute cancellation of most of his meetings. In
fact, he noted the entire process was not skillfully handled.
Rosales explained that he had to cancel the high profile
events when Sumate put him in Chavez, cross-hairs by
attacking the results of the December elections. The
Ambassador countered that the planned dinner with OAS
Secretary General Insulza was not high profile, and he

SIPDIS
probably should have thought of this possibility before
setting up the meetings. Rosales agreed, but said he thought
the meetings with A/S Shannon and NSC Senior Director Fisk
were very positive. Zulia Sports Director Munoz called
poloff March 6 to convey that Timoteo Zambrano would be
Rosales' liaison to the international community in Caracas to
ensure better coordination and communication in the future.
Munoz will perform the same function in Maracaibo.

--------------
The Zulia Strategy
--------------


9. (C) The Ambassador noted that the Embassy should be ready
by the end of the month to make some specific proposals of
Zulia projects and programs we could support through NAS,
USAID, PAS, and the law enforcement agencies. He assured him
that nothing would be launched without his green light.
Rosales said the USG has the green light; the more the
better. The Ambassador said we are not necessarily looking
for a high profile launch, since that would probably put him
squarely in Chavez, cross-hairs again. Rosales said it did
not bother him, and that, on the contrary, he hopes some of
the inaugurations could be very high profile. The Ambassador
noted some of the projects would have to be targeted at
non-UNT mayors in Zulia, such as San Francisco Municipality
Mayor Saadi Bijani (COPEI),as well. Rosales accepted that
fact, and also wanted to suggest some other opposition
municipalities for direct support.

--------------
Rosales' Next International Trip
--------------


10. (C) Rosales said he wanted to go back to Washington, but
thought his next foreign trip should be to other countries,
such as Brazil, Chile, Peru, Mexico, or some European
countries. Rosales asked for USG help in arranging meetings.
The Ambassador advised that it would be better if his own
people took the lead, but said if approached by his
international coordinator for help on specific appointments,
we probably could help behind the scenes. Rosales said that
on his next visit to Washington, he hoped to see Members of
Congress as well as U.S. press. At some point, he would also
seek a senior White House meeting. The Ambassador
recommended waiting on the latter appointment until a later
trip to Washington, and told Rosales he should be sure to
engage both parties in Congress.

--------------
Comment
--------------


11. (C) Zulia Governor Rosales remains the opposition's best
hope for the future. He ran a skillful campaign in 2006, and
is planning a long-term strategy and a positive, alternative
agenda with which to challenge Chavez, something many
opposition parties are lacking. His pledge to hold internal
elections, as many Chavista parties but relatively few
opposition ones have done in recent years, may also attract
opposition supporters. Rosales also has experience in
mounting a nationwide campaign.


12. (C) Still, it is difficult to build a national structure
from a regional base, and it remains to be seen if the UNT
can attract people outside of Zulia and Caracas. Although
Rosales has incorporated popular, young, politicians from
Caracas (the largest voting district),many other UNT leaders
are associated with the discredited parties and policies of
the pre-Chavez era. These recycled political figures may
undermine his message that UNT represents a new, more serious
brand of opposition politics. They may also hinder his
efforts to reach out to Chavista moderates and undecided
voters. We are also hearing more complaints about Rosales'
increasingly controlling tendencies within the opposition,
which threaten to alienate other parties and undermine
efforts to maintain opposition unity. While these complaints
are coming from opposition groups that have badly mishandled
their approach to Chavez over the past eight years, Rosales

CARACAS 00000569 004.2 OF 004


may need to redeploy some of his excellent coalition-building
skills. Continued planning gaffes like those committed
during his most recent Washington trip will hurt attempts to
garner international support as well.

BROWNFIELD