ROSALES CALLS FOR UNITED FRONT AGAINST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000245

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT FOR AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV VE
SUBJECT: ROSALES CALLS FOR UNITED FRONT AGAINST
CHAVEZ/PRIMERO JUSTICIA SPLITS

REF: A. CARACAS 00201

B. CARACAS 00219

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Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. Zulia Governor and de facto opposition leader
Manuel Rosales tried to rally opposition to President Chavez
and recapture some of his lost momentum in a combative
February 1 speech in Caracas. Rosales said that his Un Nuevo
Tiempo (UNT) would unite with several other mainstream
opposition parties on a common, but as yet unspecified,
democratic platform. He stressed that the opposition needs
to rebuild long-term at the local level and counter Chavez'
radical plan of government with practical alternatives.
Highlighting the opposition's continuing woes (Ref A),
Primero Justicia formally split into two factions on February
2 after months of internal division. PJ dissidents,
including Chacao Mayor Leopoldo Lopez, are forming their own
political grouping while simultaneously considering joining
Rosales' UNT party. End Summary.

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Rosales: "30,000 Fronts in the Citizens' Struggle"
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2. (SBU) Zulia Governor and former presidential candidate
Manuel Rosales spoke to 1500 persons at a Caracas hotel
February 1 in an effort to rally and keep the political
opposition to President Chavez united. Rosales announced a
common platform and long-term strategy designed to unite his
Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) party with both factions of Primero
Justicia, the Christian Democrats (COPEI),as well as the
small left-wing parties Movement Toward Socialism (MAS),La
Causa R, and the Bandera Roja. Rosales stressed in his
43-minute speech that the opposition hopes to open "30,000
fronts" at the local level to defend freedom of expression,
public services, decentralization of power, and the education
system from politicization. He said the opposition would
compete for positions on community councils. Attacking
Chavez' new slogan for his "socialist" plan of government,
Rosales proposed his own "five motors" for Venezuelans:
employment, housing, public security, health, and social
security.


3. (SBU) Rosales sharply criticized the Enabling Law (Ref B)
arguing that Venezuelans either have to oppose the
concentration of executive power or be prepared to attend
"the coronation of Hugo I." He urged young Venezuelans not
to emigrate, but to stay to fight for democracy in Venezuela.
While noting that he is not philosophically opposed to
"nationalization," Rosales criticized the cost of the BRV's
planned expropriations of CANTV and the electricity sector.
He said the BRV's motivation for taking control of CANTV is
to control the phone systems, a good part of the internet,
and the transmission of electoral data. He also expressed
solidarity with the employees of the independent RCTV network
that Chavez has threatened to close this Spring and said
people have to "rebel" against RCTV's closure.


4. (C) Rosales stressed the need for opposition unity, but he
did not release any consensus documents as they are still
being considered and negotiated across party lines. Primero
Justicia (PJ) activist Carlos Ocariz told poloff February 1
that PJ will support Rosales' efforts to lead a confederation
of leading opposition parties, but would not support the
formation of an organization like the Coordinadora
Democratica that led the unsuccessful recall effort against
Chavez in 2004. Instead, Ocariz said the opposition parties
that support Rosales will retain their identities and make
independent proposals. They will vie separately for seats on
local community councils. At the same time, they will
coordinate on political projects so as to "complement,
instead of compete" with each other.

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Primero Justicia Splits
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5. (SBU) A number of prominent Primero Justicia leaders,
including Chacao Mayor Leopoldo Lopez, Liliana Hernandez, and
Gerardo Blyde, formally left the party February 2. These
leaders broke publicly with PJ leader Julio Borges during the
presidential campaign in fall 2006 and had been planning to
form a new political grouping for some time (Ref B). The
former PJ dissidents are also reportedly considering joining

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Rosales' Un Nuevo Tiempo party, but have not yet done so.
Addressing the media and supporters, Lopez accused PJ leader
Borges of violating democratic norms in organizing PJ's own
internal elections for February 4 and said the PJ dissidents
would endeavor to build a more inclusive political party.


6. (SBU) Rosales managed to work with both PJ factions during
the campaign, and both PJ wings have pledged to cooperate
with Rosales' efforts to continue to unite the mainstream
opposition parties. While the media refers to the break-away
PJ faction as Justicia Popular, the group has not formally
registered as a party yet. Lopez told the media February 4
that they are constructing a movement for "Social Democracy
in Venezuela." Meanwhile, in their comments to local media,
mainstream PJ leaders Borges and Carlos Ocariz expressed
satisfaction with the participation of PJ members in the
February 3 internal party polls.

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Comment
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7. (C) Rosales delivered a solid, hard-hitting message that
Chavez is undermining democracy in Venezuela. He also
recognizes that the opposition still has a real opportunity
to compete with Chavez' supporters once Chavez implements the
expansion of community councils. Rosales remains the best
positioned opposition politician to fight an old-fashioned
political fight over the long-term, so long as Chavez does
not craft community council rules so as to exclude opposition
participation at that level. Chavez has been very vague so
far about how he intends to "empower" community councils (the
"fifth motor of the revolution"); the devil will be in the
details.


8. (C) Rosales' speech is also widely perceived as overdue
and was overshadowed by the press conference Chavez called at
the same time to sign the Enabling Law. Chavez has dominated
the political arena since his re-election in December 2006
with a series of sweeping announcements related to imposing
the "socialist" phase of his "Bolivarian revolution."
Rosales and other opposition figures took extended
post-election vacations and have been slow to respond and
still slower to agree on common principles that unite them.
Moreover, the opposition's efforts to expose Chavez'
authoritarianism are not helped by Primero Justicia's fissure
over very public allegations of the lack of internal party
democracy. Meanwhile, the Accion Democratica (AD) party
still refuses to support Rosales' efforts and continues to
fight the last war. AD launched a statistical analysis
February 5 to "prove" the BRV committed fraud in the last
presidential election.

BROWNFIELD