AMBASSADOR MEETS GOVERNOR ROSALES

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002350

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2027
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS GOVERNOR ROSALES


Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Richard Downes
for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Zulia Governor and unsuccessful presidential candidate
Manuel Rosales told the Ambassador on December 13 he was
optimistic regarding the opposition's chances to win
additional mayoral and governor positions in October 2008,
but recognized the opposition faced significant hurdles. He
was guarded about his own plans but noted his party, Un Nuevo
Tiempo (UNT),would continue to work with the student
movement and the pro-government party Podemos. Rosales
believes the Antonini case has caused a growing public belief
that corruption is bad under Chavez. End Summary.


2. (C) Zulia Governor and unsuccessful presidential candidate
Manuel Rosales Guerrero made a December 13 courtesy call on
the Ambassador. In a discussion that also included DCM and
PolCouns, Rosales said he was not surprised by the results of
the December 2 constitutional referendum. He credited the
victory to the work of the parties in defending the vote and
the efforts of university students and Podemos in convincing
Chavista supporters to vote against the reforms. He said the
opposition would build on this momentum and capture
additional governorships and mayoral positions in the October
2008 state and local elections. (Note: The opposition
presently has 2 of 23 governorships and 67 of the 337 mayoral
seats. End Note).


3. (C) Rosales acknowledged that the parties would face
substantial challenges in the next campaign, particularly in
ensuring unified slates for each race. He said the parties'
work would begin in January focusing on building a strong
national network, expanding efforts in the barrios, where
Chavez has traditionally drawn much of his strength, and
ensuring the opposition has trained poll watchers and
witnesses available for all the polling places. Rosales
noted that the opposition was now in a position to exploit
widening ruptures and disagreements within Chavismo.


4. (C) Regarding his own political future, Rosales was
guarded. (The two-term governor cannot run for re-election
next Fall due to term limits.) He said he would focus on
building and leading his party, UNT, and in coordinating with
other parties for the elections.


5. (C) Rosales credited the student movement for injecting
new life into Venezuelan politics. Noting that they were a
diverse group, he said the parties would work with them to
try to harness this energy. He indicated most of the leaders
had ties to political parties, particularly UNT, Primero
Justicia and COPEI.


6. (C) Rosales raised the announcement of arrests in Florida
related to the August 4, 2007 seizure in Argentina of USD
800,000 in the luggage of Guido Antonini. He said this was
continuing evidence of the level of political and personal
corruption in the Chavez administration. He viewed the
August 4 event as particularly important in transforming
opinion in Venezuela. Before that time, the polls indicated
that the average Venezuela thought that corruption was worse
under pre-Chavez governments. Since August, polls show
government corruption is perceived to be as bad or to have
grown worse under Chavez.


7. (C) Comment: Rosales, while optimistic after the recent
opposition win, was realistic about the obstacles that the
parties face in countering the authoritarian direction of the
Chavez government. He faces an uncertain personal future as
he can not run for re-election and will lose much of his
influence and resources once he leaves office. Although he
has lost political clout since his December 2006 defeat,
Rosales will likely remain the leader of his party and
probably still sees himself as a future presidential
candidate.

DUDDY