CHAVEZ LOSES CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002274

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ LOSES CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES,
REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. The National Electoral Council (CNE)
announced at 1:19 a.m. on December 3 that President Chavez
and his supporters failed to win public approval for
proposed, sweeping changes to the 1999 Constitution.
According to the CNE announcement, Venezuelans voted down
both blocks of the 69 total proposed changes by a small
margin -- 51 to 49 percent. Low voter turnout
disproportionately plagued the "Yes" camp, leading to Chavez'
first electoral defeat ever. Embassy observation teams in
Caracas and eight states noted some irregularities, but none
that appeared to have made a significant difference in the
results. Based on their "quick counts" that showed a 53-47
"No" win, opposition leaders, confident of victory after
polls closed, pressed the CNE to announce preliminary results
in the tense run-up to the early morning official
announcement. In a televised speech immediately following
the "No" victory, a somber Chavez conceded defeat "for now."
He also said the ideas behind his 69 proposed changes remain
"alive" and pledged to press ahead in the short term with his
Bolivarian revolution within the 1999 Constitution. End
Summary.

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Official CNE Results
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2. (U) CNE President Tibisay Lucena announced an irreversible
"No" victory in both blocks of proposals to change 69
articles of Venezuelan's 350-article 1999 Constitution at
1:15 a.m., several hours after polls closed on December 2.
The CNE's preliminary results based on 97 percent of the
returns are:

First Block: No - 50.7 percent; Yes - 49.3 percent

Second Block: No - 50.7 percent; Yes - 48.9 percent

CNE officials reported an abstention rate of 44.11 percent,
significantly higher than the 25 percent abstention rate in
the 2006 presidential election but lower than the 56 percent
abstention rate when Venezuelan voters approved the 1999
Constitution. The CNE should release final results later
this week.


3. (U) The high rate of abstention could not be attributed to
weather as Venezuela experienced pleasant, sunny weather
nationwide during voting hours. Absentionism appears to have
hurt the "Yes" camp disproportionately, according to CNE
figures. Chavez won 7.3 million votes in the 2006
presidential election, but the "Yes" camp polled only 4.4
million votes. Conversely, consensus opposition president
candidate Manuel Rosales polled 4.3 million votes in 2006 and
the "No" camp secured just 200,000 more votes in the
constitutional referendum.

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Electoral Conditions
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4. (SBU) Referendum voting on December 2 was peaceful. Some
leaders of the "No" block complained that technical problems
with digital fingerprint machines were causing voting delays
in opposition neighborhoods. Many voting machines also
experienced problems, and repairs and replacements appeared
to take longer in opposition areas. They also complained
that the indelible purple ink used at many centers to prevent
carrousel voting could be washed off. Voting centers were
supposed to open at 6:00 a.m., but a sizable portion opened
late, not unusual in Venezuela. CNE President Tibisay Lucena
announced around 8:45 a.m. that all centers were open and
functioning, and the CNE extended the close of polls from
4:00 p.m. until 6:00 p.m. There were isolated reports that
polling stations in pro-government areas remained open, even
though no voters were waiting in line, so that additional
voters could be brought in.


5. (SBU) Embassy deployed 14 informal election observer teams
in Caracas and eight states. They visited roughly 150
polling stations, or about one percent of the polling
stations. Three of the teams were able to stay after the
polls closed and watch the tabulation of votes. They
reported that technical problems with digital fingerprint
machines created long lines in some centers. CNE officials
told the media that long lines in front of digital

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fingerprint machines are natural because they are the first
station of the voting process. Emboffs visited two polling
stations in opposition neighborhoods that had been moved
without notice. They also confirmed that the indelible ink
at some polling stations could be washed off. British,
Canadian, and French Embassy observer teams reported similar
irregularities and observations.


6. (SBU) Emboffs noticed fewer displays of partisan political
paraphernalia around polling stations than was the case in
the 2006 presidential election. CNE regulations do not allow
political campaigning in and around polling stations. An
Embassy team in Chavez' native village in Barinas State
observed Chavistas guiding and urging voters to vote "Yes,"
but did not observe similar irregularities at any of the
other polling stations they visited in Barinas. Indeed,
emboffs noticed far fewer examples of pro-government
supporters busing voters to the polls or checking names of
persons who had voted than was the case in the 2006
presidential election. In media appearances, CNE President
Tibisay Lucena and Vice President Jorge Rodriguez both lauded
the role of 100-120 international observers invited by the
CNE, asserting incorrectly that the United States does not
permit international electoral observers.


7. (SBU) An as yet unidentified assailant attempted to run
down former Defense Minister Raul Isaias Baduel with his car
after Baduel voted in Maracay. Baduel was not injured in the
incident, although some persons near him were slightly
injured. Local media reports that the police have arrested
Baduel's attacker, but have not yet released his name.
Baduel broke with President Chavez and has campaigned for the
"No" camp.


8. (C) The "No" camp ran at least two separate "quick counts"
based on the results of 122 and 300 representative polling
stations forwarded to them by election monitors. By 9:00
p.m. the "No" camp believed it had won 53 percent to 47
percent based on its "quick counts." Electoral NGO Sumate's
parallel tabulation of results called in from 1200 polling
stations showed that the "No" camp had beaten the "Yes" camp
by 56 percent to 44 percent. Confident of victory,
opposition leaders and student activists urged "No" activists
to remain at polling stations and converged on the CNE to
demand that the CNE issue the preliminary results of the
referendum.

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Chavez' Concession Speech
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9. (SBU) Chavez convoked his cabinet, senior military
leaders, and other government officials to the presidential
palace to attend his post-election televised address to the
nation. In his 35-minute early morning speech, Chavez
conceded that the "No" camp had won an "irreversible"
electoral victory, adding his catch-phrase from his attempted
1992 coup, "for now." Chavez tacitly acknowledged that he
had prevented the ostensibly autonomous CNE from announcing
the "No" victory much earlier on election night, stating that
he debated with himself for a long time whether to withhold
the election results until all the returns had come in.
Blaming the referendum defeat on abstentionism among his
supporters, Chavez asked his supporters to reflect on ways to
convert the electoral setback into a "moral victory." Chavez
insisted his 69 proposed changes to the constitution remain
"alive," but did not say how or when he intended to pursue
them again. The Venezuelan president pledged to continue to
press ahead with his Bolivarian revolution within the
framework of the existing 1999 Constitution.

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Comment
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10. (C) The stunning defeat of the constitutional referendum
is President Chavez' first electoral loss since he won the
presidency in 1998. From the beginning of the 30-day
campaign, this was the Venezuelan president's referendum to
win or lose, and it appears he and his supporters lost it by
failing to mobilize the pro-government electoral machine, as
they have done successfully in 11 previous national, state,
and local elections. The revitalized opposition benefited
significantly from the emergence of the university student
movement, the "No" positioning of the pro-Chavez party
Podemos, and the defection of former Defense Minister Baduel.
Chavez remains president, however, and the opposition still

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needs to present Venezuelan voters with a credible
alternative to Chavismo if it is going to build on this
electoral victory and start winning the confidence -- and
votes -- of Chavez's significant base.

DUDDY