CHAVEZ ALLEGES USG ELECTION INTERFERENCE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002272

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ ALLEGES USG ELECTION INTERFERENCE;
THREATENS TO CUT OFF OIL

REF: CARACAS 002258

CARACAS 00002272 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES,
REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. President Chavez told a mass rally November
29 that his electoral battle to win approval of sweeping
proposed constitutional changes in the December 2 referendum
is really a struggle against the United States and its
opposition "lackeys" in Venezuela. As expected, Chavez has
ramped up both his combative campaign rhetoric and his
formidable electoral machine for the closing rally of the
"Yes" campaign. At both the November 29 rally and in
post-rally television appearances, Chavez accused the USG of
interfering in the upcoming vote and of hatching a plot
("Operation Pliers") to "unleash" post-referendum violence.
Chavez threatened to cut off oil to the United States should
that happen. Chavez also equated the upcoming referendum
with a plebiscite on his leadership, threatening to retire at
the end of his term of office in 2012 unless his supporters
passed the reform package. The government has not officially
followed up on its fabricated allegations of U.S. election
interference, suggesting that, so far, Chavez's latest
outburst of anti-American rhetoric is primarily aimed at
voters. End Summary.

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Chavez Plays Anti-American Card
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2. (SBU) President Chavez spoke to over 100,000 supporters
gathered in downtown Caracas November 30 to conclude the
"Yes" campaign for the December 2 referendum on his proposed,
sweeping changes to the 1999 Constitution. The speech was
carried live on all government networks. Just as he has done
in stump speeches in previous elections, Chavez framed the
upcoming electoral battle as a contest between "the people"
and the "empire (United States) and its lackeys (the
opposition)." Chavez specifically argued that "a 'Yes' vote
is a vote for Chavez and a 'No' vote is a vote for George W.
Bush." He asserted without providing evidence that
Venezuelan intelligence agencies recently foiled an
assassination plot against him. He also threatened to cut
off oil sales to the United States if the USG choreographed
post-referendum opposition violence.


3. (SBU) In addition, Chavez framed the upcoming referendum
as a plebiscite on his tenure and devoted very little time to
discussing the 69 proposed changes to the 350-article
constitution. Chavez focused on his proposal to eliminate
presidential term limits (term limits for other elected
offices would remain). He threatened to retire and spend
time with his grandchildren when his term of office ends in
2012 unless the constitutional reform package is passed.
Alternatively, he suggested his willingness to "serve the
people" until 2050 if Venezuelans so desired. One "Yes"
advertisement pointedly states "With Chavez, everything,
without Chavez, nothing."


4. (C) After his late afternoon/early evening mass rally,
Chavez stumped for his constitutional changes at a nighttime
ceremony for the provision of government housing and credits.
The government-run VTV network carried Chavez's appearance
live. Afterward, Chavez appeared on VTV's hard-line talk
show "The Razor Blade" ("La Hojilla") for the third time in a
week. On that show, Chavez reiterated fabricated allegations
that the USG and opposition are colluding on a
destabilization campaign against his government. Chavez read
a Spanish translation of the Department spokesperson's
comments on the upcoming referendum to suggest the USG is
casting doubt on the integrity of Venezuela's electoral
system to foment post-referendum violence in wake of a "Yes"
victory.

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Comment
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5. (C) Taking aim at the United States is a staple of Chavez'
thus far successful electoral strategies. It is not
surprising he is resorting to this mechanism again given the
substantial opposition to his constitutional reform proposal
and its importance to his further centralization of power.
Even the threat to cut off oil and expel a U.S. diplomat
(Reftel) is familiar, albeit Chavez's rhetoric has been
especially shrill this week, as we expected it would be.

CARACAS 00002272 002.2 OF 002


(Note: He has previously threatened to cut off U.S. oil, but
only if the U.S. invaded Venezuela, Iran, Bolivia or took
other similar action.) For the moment, however, the rhetoric
seems entirely intended to persuade his domestic audience to
support him and his constitutional amendment package on
December 2. So far, even in regard to the bogus memo, the
Venezuelan government has not taken any specific follow-on
steps, such as calling in the Ambassador or making demarches,
that would suggest the government at this point is looking
beyond this weekend. End Comment.
DUDDY