Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07CARACAS2258
2007-11-29 20:48:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN UPDATE-NOVEMBER 28-29

Tags:  PGOV KDEM VE 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9511
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
DE RUEHCV #2258/01 3332048
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 292048Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0193
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002258 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN UPDATE-NOVEMBER 28-29

REF: A. CARACAS 02254

B. CARACAS 02245

C. CARACAS 02231

CARACAS 00002258 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES
FOR REASON 1.4 (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002258

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN UPDATE-NOVEMBER 28-29

REF: A. CARACAS 02254

B. CARACAS 02245

C. CARACAS 02231

CARACAS 00002258 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT R. DOWNES
FOR REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. The "No" bloc held its end-of-campaign rally
in downtown Caracas November 29, and initial indications are
it is the largest anti-reform rally thus far. Embassy
contacts note that the "No" bloc still lacks sufficient
electoral witnesses to provide coverage outside of Caracas on
election day. President Chavez said publicly that if
anything happened to him the United States would be
responsible. He also accused the USG of developing a plan to
not recognize a "Yes" victory in the referendum. Foreign
Minister Nicolas Maduro announced he is considering expelling
an Emboff following the release of a fabricated CIA memo, if
an investigation indicates it to be genuine. The European
Union called on government officials to guarantee the voting
rights of all Venezuelans. End Summary.

--------------
"No" Bloc Concludes Campaign
--------------


2. (C) The "No" bloc held its end-of-campaign march and rally
in downtown Caracas on November 29 (septel). Initial
indications are that it is the largest anti-reform march and
significantly larger that previous marches. Leaders of the
"No" campaign called on their base to convene at one of five
meeting points throughout Caracas and then march to Bolivar
Avenue, the meeting point of choice for most pro-government
rallies, in downtown Caracas. Opposition party leaders and
students held a series of press conferences on November 28 to
urge voters to vote against President Chavez' proposed
changes. Henrique Capriles Radonski, Baruta municipality
mayor, called on both camps to carry out their
end-of-campaign activities in a peaceful and respectful
manner. Capriles dispelled rumors that the "No" bloc plans
to march to the presidential palace Miraflores. The "No"
campaign's rally in Plaza Bolivar began in the early
afternoon. Separately, the "Yes" campaign plans to hold its
final rally November 30 in the same location. It is also
expected to be extremely large.



3. (C) Manuel Cova, Secretary General of the opposition
Confederation of Venezuelan Workers (CTV),told Poloff
November 29 that he expects a turnout of 80,000 to 100,000
for the opposition's late afternoon November 29 "No" rally in
Caracas. He credited the university student movement and
growing disaffection within Chavismo with strengthening the
"No" camp,s electoral prospects. Based on his contacts with
union and business leaders outside of Caracas, Cova believes
several pro-Chavez governors are only paying lip service to
the "Yes" campaign and not mobilizing their pro-Chavez bases
to the extent they had in previous elections. He conceded
that the "No" camp may not be able to field enough election
monitors to cover a large number of polling stations and
suggested the BRV may resort to vote fraud at voting stations
at which the opposition has no monitors present. Whatever
the electoral result, Cova opined the opposition needs to
continue to work together post-election to "put the brakes"
on Chavez via continued democratic means.

--------------
Opposition Still Organizing
--------------


4. (C) With only two days to go, the opposition still appears
to be struggling to identify, train, and equip electoral
witnesses. In separate conversations with Poloff November
29, two contacts involved in the "No" bloc,s electoral
preparations said the opposition is well placed to cover the
major cities, but not outlying towns where they suspect ghost
voting is more likely to occur. While both thought the
recent incorporation of Accion Democratica and university
students into the electoral effort would boost their chances
of having at least one witness at each poll, they noted the
opposition still lacks the funds to adequately supply the
witnesses with telephones to report irregularities and track
the final results.

--------------
Chavez' Paranoia Grows
--------------


CARACAS 00002258 002.2 OF 002



5. (SBU) While speaking to crowd of constitutional reform
supporters in a soccer stadium in Merida on November 28,
Chavez said, "If something happens to me I blame the USG, I
blame the President of the United States." Earlier that day,
Chavez called on his supporters to be on high alert because
"the enemy (the USG) does not rest." The Venezuelan
President also accused the USG of manipulating polling data
to cause confusion among Venezuelan voters and of developing
a plan to not recognize a "Yes" victory in the referendum.


--------------
Maduro: BRV Considers Expelling USG Employee
--------------


6. (C) In a interview on state-run television November 28,
Minister of Foreign Affairs Nicolas Maduro said that the BRV
is considering the possibility of naming a USG employee at
Embassy Caracas "persona non grata." Maduro's statement
comes on the heels of the release of a fabricated
"confidential" memorandum written (in excellent Spanish) by
this USG employee to CIA Director Michael Hayden. The memo
entitled "Update on the Last Phase of Operation Pliers
(Tenazas)" lays out two purported anti-government options for
action post-referendum. Earlier that same day, President
Chavez said that "While (Colombian President) Uribe is in
power I won't have relations with him or with the government
of Colombia."

---
CNE
---


7. (SBU) In a November 28 press conference Tibisay Lucena,
president of the National Electoral Council (CNE),urged all
parties to respect the results of the December 2 referendum,
regardless of the outcome. Lucena also outlined a timetable
for the distribution of digital voting machines and other
voting material. She claimed that "fraud is impossible" in
the referendum given that the CNE audited over 100 voting
machines earlier this week.


8. (SBU) In the same press conference, Lucena announced that
the CNE would launch an investigation against the Venezuelan
Episcopal Conference (CEV) for its November 26 statement
which called on voters to "vote their conscience." Lucena
argued that the CEV violated the CNE's norms relating to the
dissemination of referendum-related propaganda. According to
Lucena, the CEV cannot make public its position on the
referendum because it is not registered with one of the two
blocs. Lucena said the investigation would commence after
December 2.

--------------
EU Statement on the Referendum
--------------


9. (SBU) The Presidency of the European Union (EU),currently
headed by Portugal, issued a statement November 28 regarding
the referendum. According to it the EU hopes that the
end-of-campaigns rallies "will be conducted in a peaceful,
balanced, constructive and open manner." The EU also urged
that the "exercise of the democratic right of decision by the
people of Venezuela is based on full access to information."

--------------
Skirmishes Continue
--------------


10. (SBU) Security forces clashed with opposition-oriented
university students across the country on November 28. In
Barquisimeto security forces tried to impede students from
entering the University of Lisandro Alvarado. At the
University of Los Andes in San Cristobal, Tachira state
security forces confronted students with tear gas and rubber
bullets. Students told the media that over the past few
weeks there have been almost daily confrontations with
security forces in Tachira. Meanwhile in Caracas, the
National Guard and the Metropolitan Police skirmished with
students from the Metropolitan University (Unimet). Unimet
students were dispensing anti-reform leaflets on a busy
Caracas highway when security forces pushed them back to
campus grounds using tear gas bombs and rubber bullets.
According to the national press, three students were injured.


DUDDY