REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN UPDATE-NOVEMBER 27

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002245

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN UPDATE-NOVEMBER 27

REF: A. CARACAS 2238


B. CARACAS 2188

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: President Chavez reminded his supporters
November 26 that a loss for the "No" vote would not end his
government or the Bolivarian Revolution. Opposition parties
and university students continue to try to mobilize their
supporters to participate in the December 2 referendum,
emphasizing the importance not only of voting but of
volunteering as electoral witnesses. For the first time
since the 2005 local election, Accion Democratica Secretary
General Henry Ramos Allup called on supporters to vote No.
An open letter signed by President Carter and other former
international dignitaries also advocated Venezuelans to vote
and "influence the country's future path." Miranda State
Governor Diosdado Cabello announced the "Yes" campaign will
now hold its closing rally November 30 in the Bolivar Plaza.
While the opposition--which was scheduled to demonstrate at
the same day and place--has not yet changed its plans,
student leaders announced they will now march November 29.
Election violence has claimed one life in Valencia and
security forces disbursed students handing out "No" pamphlets
in front of a local private university. End summary.

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Chavez Sets Margin of Victory
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2. (SBU) During a speech to "socialist businessmen" the
evening of November 26 at the Caracas ALBA hotel, President
Chavez predicted his reform package would pass by a margin of
10 - 20 percent. Somewhat tempering his November 23 warning
(Ref A),he also clarified that a loss for the "Yes" bloc
would not spell the end of the government or the Bolivarian
revolution, but it would make it "harder to accelerate the
process."

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Chavez Threatens to Take Away Businesses
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3. (SBU) During the same speech, Chavez also threatened to
take away the businesses of Fedecamaras members (the nation's
largest umbrella business organization) as well as the
chamber itself if the organization continued to challenge his
constitutional reform (Ref B). Chavez was reacting to
recent statements by Fedecamaras President Jose Manuel
Gonzalez that they "would do everything possible to prevent
the constitutional reform."

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Turn-Out is Pivotal
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4. (C) Edmond Saade, head of Datos Polling Firm and
President of the Venezuelan-American Chamber of Commerce,
gave a presentation to the Ambassador November 27 on voter
preferences in the run-up to the December 2 referendum.
Saade stressed that based on two polls (one done in 38 cities
up to November 8 and one done in 19 cities up to November
23),the intention to vote is increasing significantly to the
opposition's advantage. Saade also noted that voter
satisfaction with the Chavez government has dropped in recent
months to about 50 percent, making Chavez, efforts to
personalize the referendum less effective than in previous
elections. Saade outlined three high voter turn-out
scenarios in which the &No8 camp could conceivably win by a
narrow margin. (Note: Low turnout will likely hurt the
opposition "No" camp disproportionately because some
traditional opposition parties have been slow to encourage
participation.) Saade said his firm would not be doing exit
polls, but he expressed confidence in the sample exit polls
that electoral NGOs Ojo Electoral and Sumate plan to conduct.
He also said CNE Rector Vicente Diaz, the only rector widely
perceived to be independent, has promised to speak out if the
BRV resorts to fraud to win the referendum.

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AD Takes Action
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5. (SBU) Accion Democratica (AD) Secretary General Henry
Ramos Allup held a press conference November 27 to call on AD
members to vote against the constitutional reform. He also
ordered party leaders to contribute witnesses for the

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electoral tables to prevent potential government fraud and
urged all opposition supporters to peacefully congregate
outside of voting centers to support the electoral witnesses
and "defend the vote" against Chavista manipulation and
intimidation attempts. (Note: El Universal reports the
opposition, even with the help of pro-Chavez Podemos, has
identified only about 30 percent of the necessary witnesses.)
Ramos Allup cautioned supporters that while President Chavez
would still be around the day after the vote, he would wake
up with one of two realities depending on opposition turnout.
Either Chavez would be faced with a defeat and
disillusionment because his movement would implode or on the
contrary he would be emboldened. Ramos Allup then briefly
turned the floor over to AD Youth Secretary Angel Medina, who
urged students to vote against the referendum and "go out to
defend what corresponds to us."


6. (C) This is the first time AD has officially advocated
voting since the August 2005 parroquial elections. In a
radio interview previewing the press conference, Ramos Allup
cited the substantial change in voter sentiment against the
reform as one of the reasons for AD's change in position.
While this is almost certainly one reason, Ramos Allup may
also have calculated that he could use the election to set
the stage for an AD resurgence. Although AD has lost many
supporters, due in part to its abstentionist stance and stale
leadership, it is still thought to be one of the largest
opposition parties.

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Government Media Blames US and Others
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7. (C) Government media appear to be laying the ground work
for blaming the US and other countries should the
constitutional reform be defeated. The moderators of
hardline government talk show "La Hojilla" November 26 read
from an alleged confidential memorandum, the complete text of
which was released November 27 on the government-affiliated
Aporrea news website, to CIA Director Michael Hayden. The
memo entitled "Update on the Last Phase of Operation Pliers
(Tenaza)," lays out approximately two recommended options for
dealing with the referendum: prevent it from happening or
prepare to not recognize the results, even if the "No" vote
wins. The memo also outlines the work done so far in laying
the ground work for these options--including the student
protests, opposition press statements on concerns about the
quality of the electoral registry, and publication of
referendum related propaganda--and cites Embassy personnel
allegedly in preparing involved including ORA, Army Attache,
PAO, and a USAID contractor. Venezuelans named as
co-conspirators include Globovision President Alberto
Federico Ravell and the heads of autonomous universities
Central University of Venezuela, Andres Bello Catholic
University, and Simon Bolivar University.


8. (SBU) Also, the editorial cartoon in the November 27
edition of pro-government daily "Vea" accuses the Ambassador
of leading the opposition in Orange Revolution-style
activities, such as disrupting food distribution, including
school lunches. Pro-government media outlet Agencia
Bolivariana de Noticias accused groups that it alleges are
financed by the USG, such as Sumate and Leadership and
Vision, of convoking a conference on the history of the
Venezuelan student movement to indoctrinate current student
leaders. According to the article, the Konrad Adenauer
Foundation of Germany is the actual sponsor of the event.

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Carter Center Pushes Voting
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9. (SBU) The Carter Center released an open letter signed by
former President Carter and several former regional
dignitaries urging Venezuelans "not to let the opportunity
pass them by to express their opinion and influence the
country's future path." The letter explained that
constitutions are about "much more than a government" but
rather "define the rules fundamental for the political game,
and establish the design, character. . .and limits of state
institutions' power." Contrary to Chavez' strategy, the
dignitaries say the referendum "should not be seen as an
evaluation of the actual government nor a popularity poll."

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Protest Violence Claims One
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10. (U) A November 26 clash during an anti-referendum
protest in Valencia, Carabobo state left several injured and
one Chavez supporter dead. There are conflicting reports as
to how the victim died. The government claims he was
viciously attacked by the opposition when he tried to go
through the protest on his way to work. Opposition-oriented
paper "El Universal," however, reports that he was shot after
he and other pro-Chavez supporters had set an opponent's car
on fire. While speaking to a "Yes" vote rally November 26,
Vice President Rodriguez attributed the attack to part of the
opposition's plans to destabilize the country and pledged to
"act with the total force of the law " against the
perpetrators. Five protesters have been arrested in
conjunction with the shooting, according to El Universal.
Separately, National Guard and Metropolitan Police used tear
gas and rubber bullets on a group of students handing out
"No" flyers in front Simon Bolivar University. No injuries
have been reported.

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Prospects for Dueling Marches?
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11. (U) During a call to a program on state television,
Miranda State Governor Diosdado Cabello announced the "Yes"
camp's final campaign rally would be held November 30 at
Plaza Bolivar, one day earlier than previously announced and
the same day and place planned for the "No" vote's rally.
Opposition news station Globovision reports the opposition is
still holding firm to their date. During a November 27 press
conference, however, student leader Yon Goicochea said the
students would instead rally in Plaza Bolivar November 29.

DUDDY