REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN UPDATE-NOVEMBER 23-26

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 002238

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN UPDATE-NOVEMBER 23-26

REF: A. CARACAS 02225


B. CARACAS 02162

CARACAS 00002238 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES
FOR REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. President Chavez raised for the first time
the possibility of defeat at the polls on December 2.
Chavez' statements, however, appear aimed more at galvanizing
his base than admitting weakness. The Venezuelan Episcopal
Conference issued a statement reiterating its concerns about
the reform package, but telling its flock to vote "their
conscience." Student leader Yon Goicochea urged potential
abstentionists to go to the polls and vote "No." Twenty-nine
prominent opposition-affiliated unions and professional
associations also called on their members to vote against the
reform. Both blocs are gearing up for their end of campaign
activities. Chavez will preside over the "Yes" bloc's
closing campaign rally on November 29 in downtown Caracas,
while the "No" bloc intends to convene in the same location
the following day. End Summary.

--------------
Chavez Concedes Possibility of Defeat
--------------


2. (SBU) In a televised speech November 23, President Chavez
publicly acknowledged the possibility that the reform package
may not pass. Chavez told a crowd of community council
leaders that if the "Yes" vote does not win, he would have to
begin thinking about who will replace him. "Presidential
elections are in five years, " Chavez said, "and if the
reform does not pass, I will have to reflect deeply on who my
successor will be." Nevertheless, he told the audience that
he strongly believes the reform package will pass, but also
emphasized the need to mobilize voters.


3. (C) Chavez' November 23 statements represent the first
time Chavez has raised the prospect of defeat at the polls.
His remarks appear to be part of a concerted strategy to
frame the referendum as a vote on his presidency. The
Venezuelan president appears to be trying to galvanize his
base in an effort to produce a substantial voter turn-out in
favor of his reform package. Recent polling data indicates
that Chavistas who fear that defeat at the polls will mean
the end of Chavez' presidency are more likely to vote "Yes."
(Ref. B). We expect him to take other measures to mobilize
his electoral machine and hinder opposition voters.

--------------
Bishops: Reform is Morally Unacceptable
--------------


4. (SBU) The Venezuelan Episcopal Conference issued a
statement November 26, reiterating its concerns regarding
President Chavez' reform package. As they have done on other
occasions, the bishops referred to the reform as
"unnecessary, morally unacceptable, and inconvenient for the
country." They called on the Venezuelan public to go to the
polls and vote "their conscience." They also urged electoral
authorities to provide voters with the necessary safeguards
to guarantee a secret vote. Additionally, the bishops called
on citizens to carry out election day activities in a
peaceful and respectful manner.

--------------
Moving to a Worker's Paradise
--------------


5. (C) During a November 23 press conference from the
Presidential Palace, Minister of Labor and Social Security
Jose Ramon Rivero reiterated that the Bolivarian Republic of
Venezuela (BRV) would establish a 36-hour work week (from the
current 44) once the constitutional reform package passes.
Rivero, following on the heels of Chavez' speech to labor
supporters the night before, said that the new 36-hour
schedule would go into effect in January for federal
government workers and requested that state and municipal
governments adopt the same schedule. (Note: The proposed
weekly schedule is as follows: Eight hours daily
Monday-Thursday, and four hours on Friday. Chavez has
repeatedly stated that a shorter work week will allow for the
creation of the "new (socialist) man." BRV officials have
said that workers will be encouraged to learn about socialism
and participate in political activities during their free
time. End Note). According to Rivero, once the reforms pass,
the BRV will move quickly to convoke employers and labor

CARACAS 00002238 002.2 OF 003


representatives from the country's major job producing
sectors (manufacturing, banking, construction, and commerce)
to develop ways to implement this measure which will take
effect via presidential decree. The measure, Rivero claimed,
will generate a "25 percent increase in employment." The
minister did not say what the BRV would do to achieve this
end.

--------------
Chavez Rallies Support in Zulia
--------------


6. (SBU) The Bolivarian news agency, the government's news
outfit, reported that over 45,000 persons attended Chavez'
rally in support of the "Yes" vote November 25 in a soccer
stadium on the outskirts of Maracaibo, Zulia state. Chavez
told audience members that the constitutional reform was
"necessary" in order to "accelerate the revolution." He said
that the only way to avoid derailing the revolution is to
give more power to the "people," as he proposes to do via the
reforms. Government-run television stations carried Chavez'
speech at the "Yes" rally live.

--------------
End of Campaign Rallies
--------------


7. (SBU) As the campaign period draws to a close, both blocs
have announced plans for their end-of-campaign activities.
President Chavez' will preside over the "Yes" camp's rally at
Plaza Bolivar on November 29. The "No" camp plans to march
to Plaza Bolivar in downtown Caracas on November 30.
Opposition student leaders from Simon Bolivar University
called on their base to vote "No" and to participate in the
November 30 rally.

--------------
Goicochea: Don't Stay Home
--------------


8. (SBU) During a November 25 conference hosted by the
national circulation daily newspaper "El Nacional,"
university student leader Yon Goicochea urged those members
of the opposition who plan to abstain on December 2 to go to
the polls and vote "No." Goicochea said, "we are not going
to alter our country's course by staying home," during the
referendum vote. The student leader argued that a massive
opposition turnout at the polls could potentially impede
Chavez' proposed reform package from passing. Goicochea,
however, tempered these statements by saying, "I cannot
guarantee that we (the "No" bloc) will win, but I can
guarantee we will exercise our right to vote with dignity."
In his closing remarks, Goicochea lamented the political
leadership vacuum that currently exists in Venezuela,
particularly within opposition circles.

--------------
CTV, Professional Associations Back "No"
--------------


9. (SBU) Twenty-nine unions and professional associations,
including the Confederation of Venezuelan Workers (CTV),the
main opposition union, the Venezuelan Federation of Doctors
(FMV),and the National Press Workers' Union, announced
November 29 their support for the "No" camp. During a press
conference, Manuel Cova, president of the CTV, called on all
sectors of the opposition to participate in the "No" bloc's
final campaign rally November 30. Douglas Leon Natera,
president of the FMV, called the reforms "anti-democratic,"
arguing that Chavez' reforms fail to guarantee civil
liberties and due process during declared states of
emergency. He added that his association rejected the 69
proposed changes to the constitution because they "do not
address the immediate needs of the Venezuelan people."

--------------
CNE: Voting Machines Ready
--------------


10. (SBU) The president of the National Electoral Council
(CNE) Tibisay Lucena held a press conference November 25
to provide an update on recent audits to the electronic
voting machines that will be used during the referendum.
According to Lucena, 171 machines were audited on November 25
and technicians did not report any problems. She added that
14 audits have been conducted in the lead-up to the
referendum. Lucena announced that technicians want to

CARACAS 00002238 003.2 OF 003


conduct three more audits before the referendum, but did not
specify the reasons behind the additional audits. Lucena
added that the CNE will begin installing voting machines and
fingerprint digital scanners on November 30. Election
observers from both blocs along with the directors of voting
sites will be invited to witness the installations, Lucena
said.

DUDDY